Good morning and welcome back to my regular currency updates after the Bank Holiday weekend. While here in the UK it was dismal weather, heavy traffic and only the lack of a James Bond movie to complete the typical August Bank holiday hat-trick, over in Europe it was business as usual and markets were open.
Numbers released yesterday and again this morning from Europe were better than expected, with both Strong German Retail Sales and a better than expected EU inflation numbers giving the Euro a boost. This has pushed exchange rates lower. This morning we saw the Euro gain further strength due to better than forecast EU jobs numbers.
The Euro has been getting stronger and stronger recently, as those with an eye on the GBP/EUR rate will have noticed. In the last month the rate has plummeted by over 8 cents, seriously affecting those trying to budget for a Euro purchase. As I outlined in a recent post, the reason for the decline is two-fold. Firstly we have the Pound weakening off due to the expectation of a UK interest rate hike being pushed back. The second reason is a stronger Euro due to a resolution of the Greek debt crisis and a resurgent EU economy that now seems to be growing at a steady pace, with the help from the ECB Stimulus seemingly having the desired effect.
I do think that rates will eventually recover to €1.40 again, but this is now a medium to long term forecast. In the coming weeks and months, if we continue to see strong economic figures from Europe then the single currency could continue to become more expensive.
Below I’ve listed what I think could affect exchange rates for the coming months. If you have a currency transaction to perform and would like to discuss what rates I can offer you, then click here to send a free enquiry today.
What could affect exchange rates in the first week of September?
There are various things that change exchange rates, for example: Economic data, Political Uncertainty, Natural Disasters and acts of war. The first of these is the only one that is forecast in advance, and below are the main scheduled releases for the week ahead that I think could affect exchange rates.
If you would like to have a more detailed chat about how the exchange rate you’re interested in could change in the coming weeks or months, then click here to send me a message and I will be happy to answer any questions you may have about timing your currency purchase.
Monday 31st August 2015 – Yesterday we saw a raft of positive data from Europe, including strong German Retail Sales and higher than expected inflation data. This has pushed GBP/EUR exchange rates lower as the single currency gained in strength.
Tuesday 1st September 2015 – More positive data was released from Europe this morning showing that German and Italian unemployment was better than expected. This pulled GBP/EUR down from €1.37 to €1.3560. UK data this morning included mortgage approvals that were better than expected, and credit and PMI numbers that were worse. Later today we will see Canadian GDP figures that could affect GBP/CAD rates, and US Manufacturing and Construction data that might change GBP/USD exchange rates.
Wednesday 2nd September 2015 – We start the day with Australian GDP figure. Later in the morning we see UK Construction figures, and EU wide inflation numbers. Recent EU data has been good and if this continues to be the case, expect GBP/EUR to drop further. In the afternoon, US Employment data, Non-Farm Productivity and Factory orders could all affect cable.
Thursday 3rd September 2015 – Lots from Europe today that could change GBP/EUR exchange rates, including Inflation data, and the latest ECB interest rate decision. While no change is expected, the press conference afterwards often contains hints about future policy and so could well affect the Euro. Later in the day, US manufacturing and Services PMI could affect GBP/USD.
Friday 4th September 2015 – the G20 meeting starts today and so any surprises here could affect various currency pairs. Scheduled releases on the calendar other than this include EU GDP figures which I expect to show a monthly growth of 0.3%. In the USA it’s jobs day and the important Non-Farm Payroll numbers. Regular readers will know that this release is very difficult to forecast. The current expectation is for 220,000 new jobs to have been created. Any more than this, then expect GBP/USD to drop, and vice versa.