Tuesday, 24 May 2016

Sterling boosted by another 'Brexit' opinion poll

Sterling has risen higher today, back above €1.30 against the Euro. Again it's the referendum, and a new poll showing support for the 'Remain' campaign that has lifted the Pound. Here's the GBP/EUR chart for the week so far:


As you can see we're back up to the highs of last week, which are the best GBP/EUR for around 4 months. The latest Poll was from the ORB and published in the telegraph today. This showed that there is now a 13 point lead for the 'Remain' campaign. The Pound had weakened this year due to the uncertainty and risk aversion a Brexit would cause, and now that's looking less likely, Sterling is starting to strengthen again.

One thing that is very interesting is the demographics. I saw on the BBC news last night that amongst 18-24 year olds, 72% are predicted to vote to remain within the EU. When you look at those aged over 65 however, there is a stark difference. 58% of this group are likely to vote leave. So those that have never known any different want to keep the status quo. Those that remember voting for the common market have very different views. The graph below shows the currency split amongst the various ages, genders, and social grades:



What's important here is that the older generation are much more likely to actually go and vote, so despite the polls suggesting we will remain, if the 18-24 year olds don't actually go to the polling stations on the 23rd of June, we could well end up leaving the EU. I pointed out in a post last week that polls are also very unreliable. In the General election a year ago, they all predicted a hung parliament, yet the Conservative party won by a clear margin.

There is no way to predict which way things will go, and you should have a strategy in place if you need to convert currency in the coming months. Simply watching the rates and hoping things will move in your favour could prove costly if the rate moves the wrong way.

Do you need to exchange currency?


If you need to obtain the best possible rate of exchange, then your first step should be to send me a free enquiry by clicking here. I can then explain the mechanics of how our service works, and get you set up with a trading facility, so that you can get quotes and take advantage of our services when necessary. I can also monitor the markets and let you know when we are trading at a particular level, so if there is a particular rate you are targeting, you won't miss out.

I source exceptional rates of exchange that are much better than banks or other brokers may offer. If you're reading my blog, then there is a very good chance that getting the best exchange rates is of interest to you. Take the next step and make an enquiry today, and find out how I can help you.


Monday, 23 May 2016

What could move exchange rates this week?

The Pound has slipped away today as the trading week started, falling further from last weeks 4 month highs against the Euro. The pair is currently settled in the low €1.29's. It seems that investors are being a little more cautious, still wary that the UK could vote to leave the EU next month.

Last weeks gains were on the back of poll suggesting a slight lead for the 'remain' camp, coupled with higher than expected retail sales. However as I alluded to in Friday's post, opinion polls are sometimes unreliable. There also seems to a big divide n terms of the various age groups, and I think that the outcome will be down to voter turnout. It's all very well that the majority of those polled indicate they would vote to remain, but counts for nothing if these people don't vote. Many of those supporting the remain camp are also those that may not be likely to actually vote.

It's also worth noting that away from the sometimes biased press reports, the general feeling is that people are unsatisfied with the status quo, and there is still every chance we'll wake up on the morning of the 24th June with Britain gaining it's independence from Europe. If that proves to be the case, expect Sterling to drop sharply in value.

Back to the here and now. It's Monday, and as regular readers will know, I usually outline the scheduled economic data releases for the week ahead that could move exchange rates, which I have outlined below.

If you want to discuss your currency transfer, and get a quote to see how much you could save by using our services, click here.

This week's economic data releases that could move rates


Monday 23rd May 2016 - Today has been a little quiet in the markets, with no data of note from the UK. IN Europe we have seen lower than expected inflation numbers this morning, but these did little to affect GBP/EUR rates which have dropped today following the surge witnessed last week.

Tuesday 24th May 2016 - The UK releases it's public sector net borrowing figures today. These show how much debt the government holds, which is predicted to be around £6.2bn. If it's higher, expect the Pound to fall. We also have German GDP figures, and EU wide economic sentiment measures, both of which could affect GBP/EUR rates. Elsewhere, the USA provides it's latest Home Sales data, and New Zealand releases its latest Trade Balance numbers that could move GBP/NZD rates.

Wednesday 25th May 2016 - There's nothing of note from the UK today, but GBP/EUR could be affected by the latest Business climate measures from Germany. There is also the EU EcoFin meeting. Those watching the GBP/CAD rate should look for the Bank of Canada rate decision. It's likely rates will be left at 0.5%, but any comments that accompany the decision could affect the Loonie.

Thursday 26th May 2016 - Preliminary UK GDP figures are released today. I expect this to show 0.4% quarterly growth. If the actual number is higher or lower, then Sterling could move accordingly. Later in the day, the latest UK consumer confidence figures could also affect the Pound. The USA released Home Sales and Jobless numbers, and Australia has a speech by the RBA that could affect GBP/AUD rates.

Friday 27th May 2016 - All data of note today is from the United States. GDP figures, Consumption and a Speech by the FED chair Janet Yellen could all move GBP/USD rates.

Looking for the best exchange rates?


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Friday, 20 May 2016

Sterling/Euro drops away from 4 month high

The Pound has fallen back away from yesterday's 4 month highs. It's often the case that when we see a large gain for a particular rate of exchange, in this case GBP/EUR, the gains are short lived as investors take profits and as these positions are adjusted, the Pound has weakened as you can see from the chart below:


Clients that had got in touch with me and were able to move quickly, were able to obtain trading levels of €1.30+ however the opportunity to do so was very limited, as rates did not stay that high for long.

If you need to obtain the best possible rate of exchange, then your first step should be to send me a free enquiry by clicking here. I can then explain the mechanics of how our service works, and get you set up with a trading facility, so that you can get quotes and take advantage of our services when necessary. I can also monitor the markets and let you know when we are trading at a particular level, so if there is a particular rate you are targeting, you won't miss out.

I source exceptional rates of exchange that are much better than banks or other brokers may offer. If you're reading my blog, then there is a very good chance that getting the best exchange rates is of interest to you. Take the next step and make an enquiry today, and find out how I can help you.

I'll be back in action on Monday, with a full breakdown of the economic data releases and other events that could affect exchange rates in the coming weeks.

Have a great weekend.

Thursday, 19 May 2016

GBP/EUR highest in 4 months: €1.30+

Sterling's run has continued today, which is remarkable when you consider most of the move upwards is based on one opinion poll showing we're likely to remain within the EU, as I outlined in yesterday's post.

This morning we also had significantly better than expected UK Retail Sales. Monthly sales were up 1.3%, and compared to last year, up 4.3%. The markets were expecting 0.5% and 2.5% increases respectively, so the much higher numbers confirm the UK economy is stronger than originally thought.  The rush to complete property deals before the stamp duty rise came into effect probably boosted demand for household goods and furniture.

Anyway, back to the exchange rate. Look at this week's GBP/EUR chart:


It's risen by nearly 3% so far this week, and most of it is on the back of one opinion poll in the evening standard, showing that 55% of people are expected to vote to remain.

Will this rally continue? 


Sadly it's impossible to predict. Personally I think that this is a very large move on the back of one poll, which are notoriously inaccurate anyway. Remember the general election this time last year? All the polls suggested a hung parliament, yet when people actually went to vote, the Conservative Party won by a clear majority. The polling industry received criticism for their inability to predict this clear victory. Food for thought.

There are still 4 weeks to go until the vote, and further polls and swings in the predicted result will continue to drive the rate of exchange. For the moment however, the GBP/EUR rate is the highest it's been in 4 months. Certainly worth considering your options, some of which I outlined in my post yesterday, for both Euro buyers and Euro sellers.

If you have a currency transfer to make, and would like to get a quote or simply discuss the current market volatility and your options, send me a free enquiry today.