Monday, 23 January 2017

This weeks data releases and events that could affect Sterling exchange rates

Good morning. It's been an interesting start to the year for Pound/Euro exchange rates. As you can see from the chart below as the year got underway, the Pound came under pressure due to ongoing 'Brexit' uncertainty. However, once Theresa May outlined her 12 point plan, it removed much of this uncertainty and Sterling recovered some of its losses. It's also worth nothing that economic data continues to impress and if were not for the uncertainty created due to the UK's decision to leave the EU, the Pound would be soaring much higher than it is.


What could move exchange rates this week?


Usually it's economic data that drives exchange rates, however in recent months, this has been brushed aside as politics takes centre stage and drives the value of Sterling. As I touched on above, the UK economy is performing very well indeed. Below I've listed this weeks events that I think will move the currency markets.

If you need to convert one currency to another, then do feel free to get in touch and I can provide you a bespoke outline of the currency pair you are interested in, along with forecasts and options to consider to ensure you get the best exchange rate. Simply complete the form here, and state which currency pair you need (e.g. GBP/EUR, GBP/AUD, NZD/GBP etc.) and I'll personally email you with an outline of what could happen in the coming weeks and months.

This week's data:


Monday 23rd January 2017 - Today is fairly quiet on the data front, however this evening the ECB president Mario Draghi gives a speech, and his comments often affect GBP/EUR rates, so we may see movement for Pound/Euro overnight.

Tuesday 24th January 2017 - When markets open they will react to last nights ECB speech. Also on the agenda today is inflation numbers from Euros, UK Public Sector net borrowing figures, and the Supreme Court ruling on whether the government can trigger article 50 without parliament's approval. All of the above may have an impact on GBP/EUR rates.

Wednesday 25th January 2017 - Today we will see Inflation numbers from Australia that could move GBP/AUD rates. Over in New Zealand we also have inflation numbers and a speech by the governor of New Zealand's central bank, so these could move GBP/NZD. Elsewhere, business climate data from Germany may well affect the Euro.

Thursday 26th January 2017 - Preliminary UK GDP numbers are released at 09:30am this morning. I expect this to show monthly growth of 0.5%. A figure higher than this should strengthen the Pound, while a lower reading would bring it lower. It's a busy day across the pond today also, with US Jobless claims, Home Sales and PMI figures all having the potential to move GBP/USD.

Friday 27th January 2017 - All data today is from the USA, with GDO figures and Durable goods orders. Today, Trump and May have their first meeting since the President took office, and this could provide information on a possible US/UK trade deal, and there may be announcements following the meeting that affects Pound/Euro and Pound/Dollar.

Get in touch for a free foreign exchange quote


If you are reading my blog, then it's likely you have a vested interest in achieving the best possible rate of exchange. You can get in touch with us by clicking here, and get a free quote. We can usually provide significantly better currency rates than banks and other brokers, so click here or complete the form below to find out how much you could save.

Wednesday, 18 January 2017

The pound holds its ground after Theresa May's speech

Good afternoon,

After the volatility we witnessed yesterday, today has been much more subdued for the GBP/EUR cross, with the currency pair spending the majority of the day bouncing between €1.15 and €1.1550.

GBP/EUR graph




The pound seems to have stabilised following Prime Minister Theresa Mays speech yesterday afternoon, as her comments have provided some much need clarity over how the government plan to tackle the UK's exit from the European Union.

Despite stating in her speech on Tuesday that Britain will give up access to the single market, May's twelve point plan seems to have gone down well with investors, and for the time being at least, has removed some of the uncertainty from within the FX markets.

Does this mean the pound will continue to rise?

Although the move we witnessed yesterday has given the pound some much needed breathing space, I still think it is too early to say that this is the start of a full blown recovery. We are still waiting to hear the Supreme Court ruling and the government still need to trigger Article 50 before official negotiations can begin.

The negotiations to leave the European Union could rumble on for years and although markets responded well to Theresa May yesterday, her European counterparts might not be as easy to convince.

We already know we will not get a running commentary about how the negotiations are going, and until a deal is struck and we know exactly where we stand, I believe the pound will struggle to make any major advances against the euro for the foreseeable future.

Looking to buy or sell euros? 


If you have a requirement to buy or sell euros and are concerned about how the upcoming Brexit negotiations will impact your transfer, contract us today for a free, no-obligation consultation. We don't deal in cash or holiday money, but if you need to have currency wired to a bank account to purchase property overseas for example, our rates could be up to 3% or 4% better than your bank may offer, potentially saving you thousands. To get a free quote simply click here or complete the form below.


Monday, 16 January 2017

Pound/Euro exchange rate falls again

Good afternoon,

Since my last post the pound has been losing ground against the euro, with the GBP/EUR cross currently sitting at its lowest level since the start of November.

This morning saw the currency pair fall to a low of €1.1298, meaning the pound has fallen over three per cent since this time last week and almost six per cent since the beginning of December.

GBP/EUR graph




Why has the pound been falling?


Over the past few weeks talk of Brexit has been dominating the headlines and concerns are mounting over the short-term future of the UK economy.

In an interview with Sky News last week, UK Prime Minister Theresa May hinted that she will look to cut all ties with the European Union and that we could not keep "bits of membership".

Those comments have continued to weigh on the value of the pound into this week, and with May set to deliver a speech tomorrow, investors are preparing themselves for the PM to announce that she will be pushing ahead with a "hard Brexit" by giving up the UK's access to the single market.

Looking to buy or sell euros? 


If you have a requirement to buy or sell euros and are concerned about how the upcoming Brexit negotiations will impact your transfer, contract us today for a free, no-obligation consultation. We don't deal in cash or holiday money, but if you need to have currency wired to a bank account to purchase property overseas for example, our rates could be up to 3% or 4% better than your bank may offer, potentially saving you thousands. To get a free quote simply click here or complete the form below.

Wednesday, 11 January 2017

Pound Euro Still Affected by Brexit Uncertainty

Good Afternoon,

The pound has been having a turbulent time of it over the last couple of trading sessions, as the uncertainty surrounding the current political climate continues to dominate the news, and markets accordingly.

GBP/EUR is currently trading at 1.1520 (mid-market), and todays rollercoaster movement is a reflection of the fragility of the pound.

Why have rates moved so suddenly?


As has been the trend recently, it is not numerical economic data that has been the driving force, but rather news surrounding our relationship with Europe, and rhetoric from governor of the Bank of England  Mark Carneys’ views on how that relationship will affect the UK economy.
Because this is the case, the market is moving off subjective data, and therefore sentiment can change quickly, as can rates.

How does this affect you?


Just the first half of this week we have seen rates move from a high of 1.1660, to a low of 1.1433, and a lot of movement in between. This movement would have resulted in a cost difference of over £5000 for a common purchase of €300,000.

GBP/EUR The week so far 



How to navigate the market?


As a specialist in currency exchange we have a variety of contracts available to you, designed to assist in this exact scenario. Of note are Stop Loss and Limit orders.

Both are tools that place automatic triggers in the market which will purchase your currency if the pre-agreed rate becomes available, regardless of the time of day.
The Stop Loss is designed to protect the bottom end of your desired rate, and will trigger if the ‘worst case scenario’ becomes a reality, and the Limit Order is there to try and catch a rate that is currently unachievable.

Looking to buy or sell euros? 


If you have a requirement to buy or sell euros and are concerned about how the upcoming Brexit negotaitions will impact your transfer, contract us today for a free, no-obligation consultation. We don't deal in cash or holiday money, but if you need to have currency wired to a bank account to purchase property overseas for example, our rates could be up to 3% or 4% better than your bank may offer, potentially saving you thousands. To get a free quote simply click here or complete the form below.

Monday, 9 January 2017

GBP/EUR exchange rate falling after latest Brexit comments

Good afternoon,

Today has seen the pound fall across the board, with the pound/euro exchange rate sitting at its lowest level since 15th November.

For the best GBP/EUR rate click here. 


The GBP/EUR cross is currently trading at 1.1534 (mid-market), and today's move means the currency pair has fallen 2.5 per cent since last Tuesday (3rd Jan) and nearly 4 per cent since the middle of December.

GBP/EUR graph. 

 


Why has the pound/euro rate fallen? 


The pounds value has dropped following comments made by UK Prime Minister Theresa May yesterday. Speaking to Sky News, May hinted she will push ahead with a "hard Brexit" by giving up Britain's access to the single market in order to focus on the country's immigration controls.

During her first interview of 2017, Theresa May said the UK could not hold on to "bits of EU membership", and added that the UK will not be a member of the EU any longer.

Her comments have left investors worrying about the future of the UK economy, and if their fears mount we could easily see GBP/EUR hit the kind of levels we witnessed back in October.

What does the recent move for pound/euro mean for you? 


If we look at the pounds decline in monetary terms, converting £300,000 into euros today will see you receive around €8500 less than seven days ago.

Although it does not make great reading for those of you looking to purchase euros, it suddenly represents an excellent opportunity for those looking at converting euros back into pounds.

Looking to buy or sell euros? 


If you have a requirement to buy or sell euros and are concerned about how the upcoming Brexit negotaitions will impact your transfer, contract us today for a free, no-obligation consultation. We don't deal in cash or holiday money, but if you need to have currency wired to a bank account to purchase property overseas for example, our rates could be up to 3% or 4% better than your bank may offer, potentially saving you thousands. To get a free quote simply click here or complete the form below.