Last Week
The pound made some excellent overall gains against both the Euro and the US Dollar last week. Some analysts said a bigger-than-expected rise in UK retail sales on Thursday and strong demand was positive for the pound, while many remained wary of saying that the UK economy is recovering.
Bank of England Deputy Governor Charles Bean said on Thursday that the low-point in UK economic activity was not far off, but added that the strength of any recovery was uncertain and likely to be relatively low.
Given the amount of data from both the US and the Eurozone this week, if continued negative news is seen, then we could well see GBPUSD go through $1.60, however UK data later in the weak could stem any continued gains.
This Weeks Data
We have already had some data from Germany - GDP figures were as expected however the import price index was quite a bit worse than forecast. As Germany is the biggest economy in the EU, this has weakened the Euro and pushed the rate up slightly.
Other data to watch out for this week is US Consumer Confidence later today, US House Prices and Home Sales tomorrow - if weak this could cause the US Dollar to continue to weaken. On Thursday we have UK Consumer Confidence Data and also for the UK, Friday sees some House Price Index information. For the EU, watch out for CPI and Unemployment data on Friday that will likely affect the value of the Euro, if data supports the case for interest rate cuts in June.
Tuesday
Ger - GDP
Ger - Import Prices
EU - Current Accounts
US - Consumer Confidence
Jap - BoJ Minutes
Wednesday
Ger - Consumer Price Index
US - Home Sales
US - House Price Index
Thursday
Aus - Home Sales
EU - Consumer Confidence
US - Durable Goods
UK - Consumer Confidence
Friday
UK - House Price Index
EU - Consumer Price Index
EU - Unemployment
US - GDP
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