Sterling exchange rate forecast

Good morning. Exchange rates remain strong against most currencies this morning, although the GBP/EUR rate is still lower due to a stronger Euro. Renewed confidence in the EU banking sector has boosted the Euro and caused GBP/EUR rates to fall. At 09:00am 5th July rates are as follows:

This week’s data

The main event for the week is the interest rate decisions for the EU and UK on Thursday. While rates will be left on hold, any comments that indicate future interest rate movements can have a big impact on exchange rates. Contact us today for a free consultation on how economic data can impact on the cost of your currency purchase.


US Holiday for Independence Day. For the EU we have Retail Sales for Germany and the EU as a whole, in addition to some confidence measures. IN the UK we have a measure of inflation. If it’s higher than expected then Sterling may gain.


A quieter day for data releases. There is an interest rate decision in Australia, although we expect rates to say on hold this month. In the USA there is some manufacturing data which reflects business conditions in the states.


Gross Domestic Product data is released from the EU today. GDP is considered as a broad measure of the Eurozone economic activity and health. A rising figure could strengthen the Euro and bring GBP/EUR rates down, and vice versa.


The busiest day of the week for data. We have an interest rate decision for both the EU and UK. Rates will probably be left on hold, but the comments that accompany the decision can affect exchange rates. Also in the UK, we have a GDP estimate, Industrial and Manufacturing production. These are significant releases and may well affect the value of Sterling. In the USA Jobless measures will be watched closely.


Inflation data from the UK in the form of the Producer Price Index, which is a monthly measurement of the rate of inflation experienced by the UK manufactures when buying goods and services. A high reading can boost Sterling but a lower reading may cause rates to drop. Consumer prices from Germany is the main data from the Eurozone.

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