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Showing posts from August, 2010

Pound vs Euro forecast Sept 2010, Fundamental Data

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Good morning. Today we'll have a detailed look at Pound to Euro, Pound to US Dollar and Pound vs New Zealand Dollar. We also look at the weeks fundamental data that may affect exchange rates.

Pound vs Euro

Sterling started of last week well against the single currency, reaching a high of 1.2275 with a low of 1.2143 (Interbank Levels) a difference of -1.1%. Therefore a difference between the high and the low of the week on €250,000 would be around £2,200 on your purchase.

Last week saw the U.K. economy expand faster than previously estimated in the second quarter in the biggest growth spurt since 2001 as companies rebuilt stocks and construction work surged.
Gross domestic product rose 1.2 percent from the previous three months. That was higher than the 1.1 percent initial estimate. On the year, the economy has expanded 1.7 percent.

Whether you are looking to buy or sell Euros we have a number of ways to safeguard your requirement. One of the contracts which can do this over a long …

Pound gains vs USD after weak home sales

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26th August 2010
Good morning. Sterling has risen against the US Dollar following very weak US home sales data. Against the Euro, there has been little movement. Rates as at 08:30am are as follows:


GBP/EUR 1.2213GBP/USD 1.5563GBP/AUD 1.7501GBP/NZD 2.2050GBP/CAD 1.6409GBP/CHF 1.6042GBP/ZAR 11.347GBP/JPY 131.81GBP/NOK 9.7456GBP/HUF 343.88EUR/USD 1.2741US Home Sales Data

New homes sales in the US fell sharply in July, according to official data, adding to concerns over the weakness of the US economic recovery. The rate of new home sales fell 12.4% in July from a month earlier to an annualised rate of 276,600 a year, the US Commerce Department said.

That makes it the slowest rate since records began in 1963. Although most analysts had expected a fall in sales, the number was even lower than expected. It's raised fears of a double dip recession, and the dollar weakened as a result making it cheaper to purchase.

The news however could cause jitters in the markets, with investors flocking to …

Pound weak after BoE comments, Ireland downgraded

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25th August 2010
Good morning. The pound was pushed further down yesterday after a BoE members comments that growth forecasts for the UK were overly optimistic. There have also been some downgrading of EU countries credit ratings, which has weakened the Euro. Rates as at 08:30am are as follows:


GBP/EUR 1.2173GBP/USD 1.5398GBP/AUD 1.7385GBP/NZD 2.1873GBP/CAD 1.6315GBP/CHF 1.5856GBP/ZAR 11.307GBP/JPY 130.06GBP/NOK 9.7235EUR/USD 1.2649Pound weaker on BoE comments

In an interview with the Times, Martin Weale, the newest member of the BoE's Monetary Policy Committee, said that Britain faces the risk of sliding into recession. He also said that the central bank's growth forecast for this year and next may be too optimistic. Analysts said sterling would be vulnerable in the future to dovish comments similar to Weale's. The comments caused the pound to fall through trading yesterday.

"Weale's comments were not too surprising, but it helped produce some weakness in sterling gi…

Pound falls on recession fears / GBP/CAD Forecast

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24th August 2010
Good morning. Sterling fell to a 1 month low against the US Dollar yesterday, extending losses after a Bank of England policymaker said the UK faces the risk of sliding into recession. The pound also fell against the Euro after briefly hitting 8 week highs early in the day. Today we'll look at what fears of recession may mean for Sterling exchange rates, and also a look at the Canadian Dollar. First the usual snapshot of rates as at 08:30am:

GBP/EUR 1.2190GBP/USD 1.5382GBP/AUD 1.7365GBP/NZD 2.1887GBP/CAD 1.6272GBP/CHF 1.6034GBP/ZAR 11.372GBP/NOK 9.6761GBP/JPY 130.26GBP/HUF 346.22EUR/USD 1.2615 Pound vs EuroSterling hit its highest in nearly eight weeks against the euro on Monday morning on speculation that monetary policy in the euro zone would remain more accommodative than in Britain. The news weakened the Euro, making it more expensive to purchase. Later in the day however, comments showing there are fears that the UK may slip back into recession pushed the pound…

Pound vs Euro, and the weeks data releases.

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23rd August 2010

Pound vs Euro

Good morning. Last week saw a relatively quiet trading range for Sterling/Euro which moved less than 1.5% between the high and the low of the week (1.2070-1.2238) with the rate finishing a mere 40pips higher than where it started on Monday morning.

This was mainly due to a mix of data releases from both the UK and Eurozone which started with a 1.7% drop in UK house prices on Monday but was countered on Tuesday by poor Eurozone data; the EU current account figures were worse than expected (-€4.6bn) which shows less demand for Eurozone exports and therefore less demand for the Euro itself, and German economic sentiment from the ZEW was lower also.

The ZEW is a leading indicator of German economic health and outlook for the following 6 months and therefore gives a view to the Eurozone economy as a whole as Germany makes up over 25% of total Eurozone GDP.

The reading was much worse than expected; 14 down from 21.2 the previous month (a reading of 0 & below sh…

Sterling exchange rates gain on Retail Sales data

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20th August 2010
Good morning. The pound had a good day yesterday, climbing after better than expected Retail Sales showed that consumer confidence is higher than thought. The Euro strengthened against the US Dollar, limiting GBP/EUR gains. Rates as at 08:30am this morning are as follows:

GBP/EUR 1.2145GBP/USD 1.5546GBP/AUD 1.7459GBP/NZD 2.2046GBP/CAD 1.6183GBP/CHF 1.6030GBP/ZAR 11.333GBP/JPY 132.66GBP/HUF 336.37GBP/NOK 9.6375EUR/USD 1.2815Sterling gains on Retail Sales

Retail sales in July rose much faster than expected, and sales volumes jumped 1.1% compared with June, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said. Analysts had forecast a rise of just 0.4%, so the better than expected numbers helped push the pound higher during trading yesterday.

That marked the highest month-on-month increase since February. "It doesn't look for now like the slowdown emerging in the rest of the economy has spread to the High Street yet," said Vicky Redwood from Capital Economics.

The Briti…

Sterling gains on BoE minutes short lived

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19th August 2010
Good morning. Sterling came off 3 week lows against the US Dollar on Wednesday as Bank of England meeting minutes dashed market speculation of a tilt toward monetary easing, but lacked momentum to sustain gains. Sterling also gained against the Euro and other major currencies, but has already retracted this morning. Rates as at 08:30am are as follows:

GBP/EUR 1.2141GBP/USD 1.5517GBP/AUD 1.7302GBP/NZD 2.1785GBP/CAD 1.5985GBP/ZAR 11.291GBP/JPY 133.07GBP/NOK 9.6088GBP/CHF 1.6216GBP/HKD 12.062EUR/USD 1.2784Bank of England MinutesYesterday the minutes from the recent Bank of England decision to hold rates showed that the BoE rate-setters mulled the case for both easing and tightening policy this month before voting eight to one to keep interest rates at a record low of 0.5 %.Monetary Policy Committee member Andrew Sentance called for a 25 basis point hike for the third month running, as he usually does.The MPC also said that financial markets had improved since its last meet…

Sterling in focus today, as BoE minutes are due

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18th August 2010
Good morning. The pound slipped yesterday against both the US Dollar, Euro, and most major currencies. Low inflation figures were largely to blame. Today we'll look at this, and also the effect this mornings BoE minutes will have. First the snapshot of rates as at 08:30am:
GBP/EUR 1.2095GBP/USD 1.5533GBP/AUD 1.7245GBP/NZD 2.1822GBP/CAD 1.6028GBP/CHF 1.6174GBP/ZAR 11.289GBP/JPY 132.70GBP/NOK 9.5664EUR/USD 1.2839Low inflation hits Sterling

UK inflation eased to 3.1% in July from 3.2% in June, the third month in a row that prices have risen more slowly. However, the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) is still well above the Bank of England's 2% target rate, although it's unlikely to change the view that interest rates will remain low for some time.

Last week, the Bank said it expected inflation to remain higher than forecast in the coming months, largely because of the rise in VAT to 20% in January next year.

Also pushing the GBP/EUR rate down with the fact that the Euro…

Pound vs Euro outlook for August 2010

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17th August 2010
Good morning. Sterling rose against the US Dollar yesterday, after sliding to a 3 week low last week. Risk appetite has improved and so the Euro has also gained. A fall in UK house prices however, put sterling under some selling pressure against the euro. We'll take a detailed look at where Sterling exchange rates may go in a moment, after the usual snapshot of rates as at 08:30am:

GBP/EUR 1.2164GBP/USD 1.5659GBP/AUD 1.7308GBP/NZD 2.2013GBP/CAD 1.6266GBP/CHF 1.6232GBP/ZAR 11.329GBP/HKD 12.167GBP/HUF 338.98GBP/JPY 133.48EUR/USD 1.2874Pound vs EuroSterling fell yesterday after a fall in house prices. The Euro gained due to easing in risk aversion; what does this actually mean?Well, last week there were concerns over the EU economy, and world investors don't like risk. Therefore investors moved funds to the safe haven of the US Dollar. Then, after the European Central Bank said it bought minimal government bonds from the euro zone last week, it placated concerns ab…

Pound vs Euro / Pound vs Dollar / Fundamental Data

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16th August 2010
Pound vs EuroSterling rose to a 6 week high Vs the euro by the end of trade last week to close at 1.2231 from 1.2022 at the beginning of the week. The Euro was the weaker currency out of the two in spite of strong GDP data from the Eurozone and in particular Germany. Euro's weakness could be attributed to the resurfacing of concern on sovereign debt risk as well as imbalances inside the Eurozone economies. During the course of the week Sterling rallies were hampered after the Bank of England cut its growth forecasts on Wednesday and predicted inflation would stay below target over the medium term, leaving the door open for more quantitative easing, that was the trigger for sterling's biggest daily percentage loss since mid-May, taking it well away from the six week highs reached by Friday.
Next week the domestic economic calendar for Sterling lacks significant market-moving potential. The release of minutes from the Bank of England’s August monetary policy meeti…

Sterling drops vs USD, up against EUR

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13th August 2010

Good morning. Yesterday Sterling fell from a 6 week high against the Euro, and hit a 2 week low against the US Dollar as recent gains were short lived. Today we'll take a look at each currency in turn. First as usual a snapshot of exchange rates as at 08:30am:
GBP/EUR 1.2157GBP/USD 1.5664GBP/AUD 1.7353GBP/NZD 2.1907GBP/CAD 1.6225GBP/CHF 1.6433GBP/ZAR 11.296GBP/JPY 134.58GBP/NOK 9.6057EUR/USD 1.2881Pound vs Euro

Earlier this week we had a big dip against the Euro after the news from the Bank of England. In the past few days however Sterling has surged against the Euro, hitting 6 week highs at close to €1.22. This was despite the gloomy Bank of England report on Wednesday.

The reason for the gains were more to do with Euro weakness,as weak economic data from Greece increased concerns about euro zone peripheral countries. The weak EU data has weakened the single currency meaning that despite poor UK data, the exchange rate gained.

On Wednesday, sterling fell versus the do…

Sterling to Euro / US Dollar predictions & Forecast

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10th August 2010
Good morning. Sterling fell against the US Dollar and Euro this morning. Today we'll take a look at what's happening with Pound to Euro rates, and also a detailed look at the US Dollar. First the usual snapshot of rates as at 08:30am:
GBP/EUR 1.1990GBP/USD 1.5791GBP/CAD 1.6270GBP/AUD 1.7296GBP/NZD 2.1832GBP/CHF 1.6637GBP/ZAR 11.380GBP/JPY 135.33GBP/NOK 9.4787EUR/USD 1.3167Pound vs Euro
Sterling to Euro rates hit around €1.2050 yesterday, but the gains have been short lived. This morning inflation data from Germany showed that the numbers were higher than expected, which has strengthened the single currency making it more expensive to purchase.

Also knocking Sterling down was news that house prices are falling and Retail sales are also dropping, signalling the economic recovery may not be all plain sailing.

Today we have Trade balance data. It is an event that generates some volatility for the GBP. If a steady demand in exchange for UK exports is seen, that would tu…

Pound to Euro forecast August 2010

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Good morning. Last week was an extremely quiet week in terms of market movement on the GBP/EUR currency pair, with the market closing on Friday evening a matter of pips from where it opened the week on Monday morning. It seems that the Pound is consolidating its gains having recently made a sharp recovery from what many technical analysts, with hindsight, consider to be a sustained period where it was undervalued compared to its European counter-part.

Sterling did gain marginally early in the week but those gains were cancelled out following the publishing of this month’s PMI (Purchasing Managers Index). The release, which captures an overview of the conditions of sales and employment came out at 53.1, significantly lower than the previous figure of 54.8 and the expectation of 54.4.

The most notable release of the week, the UK and Eurozone interest rate decisions also provided little to give direction to the stagnant pairing, with both the Bank of England and the European Central Bank k…

Sterling unchanged after Interest Rates, important data today

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6th August 2010
Good morning. Sterling has fallen against the US Dollar ahead of today's non-farm payrolls data. The pound is little changed against the Euro following the expected interest rate holds yesterday in the EU and UK. We'll look at this in detail in a moment along with the important data releases that may affect exchange rates. First at 08:30am rates are as follows:

GBP/EUR 1.2050GBP/USD 1.5903GBP/AUD 1.7327GBP/NZD 2.1814GBP/CAD 1.6141GBP/CHF 1.6670GBP/ZAR 11.491GBP/JPY 136.84GBP/NOK 9.4985EUR/USD 1.3195UK Interest Rates

The BoE left rates at the record low of 0.5% yesterday as expected. The news did little to alter exchange rates, and focus has already shifted to the central bank's quarterly projections on the economy and inflation, due next Wednesday, to gain insight into policymakers' thinking. We will also watch the minutes of yesterdays decision due in a little under 2 weeks to see how they voted. These events will likely have an impact on Sterling's …

How Interest Rate decisions may affect exchange rates

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5th August 2010
Good morning. Today is important for the currency markets, as we have lots of data including interest rate decisions that may well cause significant volatility. Today we'll have a detailed look at what's expected, and the forecast for the effect on exchange rates. First, the usual snapshot of rates as at 08:30am: GBP/EUR 1.2056GBP/USD 1.5835GBP/AUD 1.7306GBP/NZD 2.1785GBP/CAD 1.6058GBP/CHF 1.6649GBP/ZAR 11.508GBP/JPY 136.48GBP/NOK 9.5194EUR/USD 1.3130Interest Rate Decisions
Today we will see both the Bank of England and European Central bank announce their latest decision on interest rates. Markets expect both to leave rates on hold, however they face a dilemma in their policy decision.
Interest rates are used to control inflation, which in the UK is currently well above the 2% target. Usually this would be a slam dunk for an interest rate hike, which would boost the pound. However, concerns about the pace of recovery means rates will likely be left on hold so as …

Sterlings rise slows as poor data starts to be revealed

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4th August 2010
Good morning. Sterling rose again against the US Dollar yesterday, but didn't climb much more against the Euro. It's mainly due to US Dollar weakness, and the fact that there are expectations the UK will continue to recover after recent upbeat economic data and robust bank earnings. Rates @ 08:30am are as follows:
GBP/EUR 1.2058GBP/USD 1.5927GBP/AUD 1.7430GBP/NZD 2.1719GBP/CAD 1.6305GBP/CHF 1.6586GBP/ZAR 11.587GBP/HKD 12.363GBP/NOK 9.5236GBP/JPY 136.11EUR/USD 1.3204
Sterling's rise over the last few weeks

The pound has been in demand due to recent strong UK data, including forecast-busting second quarter economic growth, while a manufacturing activity survey on Monday came in above expectations.

Evidence of a healthy banking sector has also buoyed the UK currency because of the financial sector's hefty contribution to the UK economy, with banking giant HSBC recording better than expected profits, along with Lloyds this morning announcing healthy profits. All…

Why is the pound gaining against EUR, USD?

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3rd August 2010
Good morning. The pound rallied broadly yesterday, climbing against most major currencies. Today we'll take a detailed look at why the pound is gaining against the Euro, and the forecast for August 2010. First the usual snapshot of rates as at 08:30am:

GBP/EUR 1.2079GBP/USD 1.5921GBP/AUD 1.7514GBP/NZD 2.1773GBP/CAD 1.6317GBP/CHF 1.6549GBP/ZAR 11.649GBP/JPY 137.14GBP/NOK 9.515EUR/USD 1.3183So why is the pound gaining against the Euro and US Dollar?

The pound has gained due to increased risk appetite, and also rising shares on the back of the news that HSBC made huge profits in the first half of 2010. Given the financial sector's hefty contribution to the UK economy, the good news for the UK bank helped lift UK markets and also boosted Sterling significantly.
"Sterling is in the process of a long-term re-rating. The UK had been priced for disaster given the troubles in the financial sector, but now all the reasons for hating the pound have gone," said Kit …

Pound to Euro Forecast August 2010

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2nd August 2010
Good morning. Sterling has strengthened to its highest against the euro in a month this morning, and has also gained against the US Dollar and other major currencies. The pound has been buoyed by higher equities in the wake of solid earnings reports that have lifted perceived riskier currencies. We'll have a look at this in a moment, along with the weeks data. First, at 09:00am this morning rates are as follows:
GBP/EUR 1.2066GBP/USD 1.5788GBP/AUD 1.7311GBP/NZD 2.1546GBP/CAD 1.6146GBP/CHF 1.6521GBP/NOK 9.503GBP/ZAR 11.431GBP/JPY 136.87EUR/USD 1.3081
Pound gainingSterling is moving higher this morning due to a host of better UK data. Riskier currencies such as the pound are also benefiting due to higher equities. This week we see a host of UK and EU data that could affect Sterling to Euro rates throughout August. See below for how these releases may affect rates.

Pound vs US Dollar

Last week the dollar reached a 5 month low versus Sterling and a 3 month low against the …