Showing posts from November, 2010

Sterling vs Euro at 2 month high into December

30th November 2010
Good morning. Sterling vs Euro rates hit a fresh 2 month high yesterday, as fears grow that other EU nations may also require help, as Ireland did. This speculation has weakened the Euro, creating some great opportunities for those that need Euros. Rates at 08:30am are as follows:

GBP/EUR 1.1870GBP/USD 1.5561GBP/AUD 1.6169GBP/NZD 2.0886GBP/CAD 1.5859GBP/CHF 1.5495GBP/ZAR 11.055GBP/JPY 130.51GBP/NOK 9.601GBP/HUF 335.95EUR/USD 1.3089EU fears weaken Euro, but the pound is still weak

Whilst negative sentiment towards the Euro has weakened the single currency pushing GBP/EUR rates to a 2 month high, against the US Dollar the pound fell to a 2 month low. This illustrates the fact that the pound is still weak, and it's only Euro weakness that's causing the rise in rates.

Ongoing speculation about whether more euro zone nations including Portugal and Spain will require bailouts will continue to sting the euro which may boost the pound versus the single currency.

Signs th…

What next for GBP/EUR rates in November ?

What next for GBP/EUR rates in November ?

The market last week has been characterised by range-bound trading, thin liquidity and a loss of risk appetite from investors nervous of a stuttering UK recovery. The exchange rate last week opened 1.167 to a close of 1.18……

Early in the week there was selling pressure on the Euro as investors wanted to see if Ireland accepted the rescue package and what affect this would have on the wider Euro economy and particularly any anticipated contagion to the “sick men of Europe”.

This resulted in a strong Sterling outlook resulting in 2 month high on Weds. However, gains were relatively soft as general consensus was that a Euro safety net lending capacity had been established for the weakest Euro economies and that lending would be accompanied by Euro currency buying by their central banks.

At home confidence in the pound was generally weak as eyes turned to Monetary Policy Committee’s (MPC) stance on Quantitative Easing (QE), Thursday’s inflation report…

Pound remains at 2 month high vs Euro

26th November 2010
Good morning. Sterling fell slightly against the euro yesterday, but then recovered again as the single currency remained under pressure due to concerns Ireland's debt crisis will spread. The pound was fairly steady, but fell to a 1 month low against the US Dollar while US markets were closed for Thanksgiving. Rates at 08:30am this morning are as follows: GBP/EUR 1.1841GBP/USD 1.5735GBP/AUD 1.6190GBP/NZD 2.0760GBP/CAD 1.5913GBP/CHF 1.5752GBP/ZAR 11.126GBP/JPY 131.84GBP/NOK 9.6225GBP/HUF 329.32EUR/USD 1.3284Bank of England show disagreement

A member of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has said he was concerned about support given by the MPC for the government's plans to cut the budget deficit.

Adam Posen said that he was worried about the committee's impartiality. "There was a difference of opinion at the MPC at the May meeting over a particular paragraph in the report that was talking about the need for a particular speed to de…

Weak Euro keep Pound / Euro rates high

25th November 2010
Good morning. Yesterday there was a sigh of relief as Ireland announced austerity measures that appeased the markets. GBP/EUR rates fell through most of the day. In fact the bail-out has done nothing to calm the markets. If anything, it has made the situation in Europe worse.

It has highlighted the problems of having to shore up bad debts and the risk of other countries needing a huge helping hand. As a result, later in the afternoon the Euro weakened again and rates pushed back through the €1.18 barrier. At 08:30am this morning rates stand as follows:
GBP/EUR 1.1824GBP/USD 1.5788GBP/AUD 1.6054GBP/NZD 2.0688GBP/CAD 1.5914GBP/CHF 1.5752GBP/ZAR 11.095GBP/NOK 9.6141GBP/JPY 131.69EUR/USD 1.3348Irish austerity measuresDublin on Wednesday unveiled a strict, four-year austerity plan after securing a debt bailout from the EU and the IMF this week but this did little to allay concerns that other periphery euro zone countries may also be in trouble. With concerns growing about t…

Pound hits 2 month high vs Euro

24th November 2010
Good morning. Yesterday was full of surprises. Firstly the military action in Korea worried the markets and strengthened the US Dollar, pushing GBP/USD rates to a 1 month low. Versus the Euro however, Sterling hit a 2 month high due to the weak Euro on Irish uncertainty. Rates at 08:30am are as follows:

GBP/EUR 1.1814GBP/USD 1.5779GBP/AUD 1.6127GBP/NZD 2.0760GBP/CAD 1.6101GBP/CHF 1.5689GBP/ZAR 11.190GBP/JPY 130.90GBP/CHF 1.5689GBP/NOK 9.6382EUR/USD 1.3355Korea shocks the marketsNorth Korea shelling a South Korean island further dented sentiment in a market already worried about debt troubles in the euro zone, with participants seeking the perceived safety of the likes of the dollar. When there is global uncertainty, investors return to the 'safe haven' status of the US Dollar. As a result the USD strengthened and rates are now at a 1 month low for US Dollar buyers. Sterling is still weak The pound rose almost 1% against the Euro yesterday. Many think the pound…

Euro weakens over political uncertainty in Ireland

23rd November 2010
Good morning. The euro slipped against sterling yesterday, relinquishing early gains after the single currency's initial rally after Ireland secured a debt bailout was overtaken by political uncertainty as Dublin looked headed for an early election. We'll look at these developments in a moment after a snapshot of rates as at 08:30am:
GBP/EUR 1.1733GBP/USD 1.5936GBP/AUD 1.6247GBP/NZD 2.0756GBP/CAD 1.6248GBP/CHF 1.5768GBP/ZAR 11.217GBP/NOK 9.606GBP/JPY 133.23GBP/HUF 322.22EUR/USD 1.3576Irish debt and political uncertaintyInitially the bailout news strengthened the Euro, pushing GBP/EUR rates into the €1.16's. Later in the day however, it became clear there is severe political uncertainty, and this weakened the Euro again pushing rates back above €1.17. Investors fear that far from stemming the eurozone debt crisis, Ireland's bailout has given it fresh legs with Portugal and Spain the next in the firing line.

"The debt crisis will put pressure on the …

Weekly Pound vs Euro forecast

Pound vs Euro

Last week Sterling held ground against the Euro following the news that the Bank of England voted as expected in their policy meeting earlier this month. The positive for the pound being that only one member voted for further Quantitative Easing (QE).

Regular readers will be well aware of the dangers QE poses to the value of GBP, with the original QE session in the UK playing a key role in the devaluing of the Pound against the Euro to its lowest ever levels almost two years ago.

The failure of the Pound to make notable gains last week against the Euro, where the economies in some member states are still grabbing the headlines for all the wrong reasons, suggests that fear of further QE (QE2) is still weighing on the market. Considering this, it is difficult to forecast the Pound making substantial gains in the short-term and we will have to wait until the beginning of next month at the earliest for the next Bank of England meeting for any further clarity on this lingering i…

Bank of England could weaken Sterling today

17th November 2010
Good morning. Sterling fell sharply yesterday as Bank of England Governor Mervyn King signalled more quantitative easing could be possible, erasing gains made after higher than expected UK inflation data. Rates at 08:30am this morning are as follows:
GBP/EUR 1.1778GBP/USD 1.5898GBP/AUD 1.6308GBP/NZD 2.0742GBP/CAD 1.6271GBP/CHF 1.5828GBP/ZAR 11.214GBP/JPY 132.54GBP/HUF 326.10EUR/USD 1.3493Bank of England data could hurt SterlingThe UK Consumer Prices Index (CPI) inflation rate rose unexpectedly to 3.2% in October, official figures show, on the back of higher fuel prices. Analysts had expected the CPI figure to remain unchanged at 3.1%. The higher figure prompted the BoE governor to say that it is still possible the UK will follow the US in another round of Quantitative Easing. This would weaken the pound against other currencies. Today we will see the minutes to the recent BoE meeting, and see the differences of view. This is released at 09:30am. If the minutes show a …

Pound vs EUR, Pounds vs US Dollar, Fundamental Data,

Sterling gains as debt concerns weigh on the Euro; Pound vs Euro Forecast

We have seen a pretty volatile week for the Sterling - Euro exchange rate with the cross starting Monday morning at 1.1551 and reaching a high on Thursday afternoon of 1.1825; which for those buying euros makes a difference of over £2,000 on a €100,000 purchase. Make sure you keep in touch with your account manager at Foremost to ensure you are getting the best exchange rates.

Weaker than expected manufacturing & industrial data from both the UK and Eurozone earlier in the week meant that the rate remained pretty stable but on Wednesday the Bank of Englands monthly inflation report helped the Pound to recover some of the ground it has lost over the last couple of months. When delivering the report, GovenorMervyn King, said that the outlook for the UK economy remains uncertain and inflation will be higher than expected until at least the end of 2011, giving Sterling bulls some optimism about a possible interest…

Ireland debt weakens Euro; GBP/EUR €1.18.

12th November 2010
Good morning. Sterling rose yet again vs the Euro yesterday, after problems regarding Ireland's debt weakened the Euro. Today we have some further key data from Europe, so we could see further changes. At 08:30am this morning rates are as follows:

GBP/EUR 1.1770GBP/USD 1.6059GBP/AUD 1.6250GBP/NZD 2.0724GBP/CAD 1.6260GBP/CHF 1.5644GBP/ZAR 11.214GBP/JPY 131.36GBP/NOK 9.580GBP/HUF 325.25EUR/USD 1.3643Ireland debt weakens EuroSterling benefited from growing negative sentiment towards the euro, with investors particularly worried that Ireland and Portugal might need a Greek-style bailout.

The government's deficit surged during the recession after it was forced to bail out the country's banking system. The recent rise in the interest rate Irish government bonds pay out, which hit record highs this week, suggest investors doubt whether these cuts will be enough to put the Irish economy, which suffered one the deepest recessions in the eurozone, back on track.

This …

Pound rises after BoE Inflation report

11th November 2010
Good morning. Sterling rose again against the euro yesterday, extending gains from the previous day after the Bank of England's inflation report made a move towards quantitative easing in the near term unlikely. Rates have recovered well in recent weeks, and at 08:30am this morning things stand as follows:

GBP/EUR 1.1726GBP/USD 1.6133GBP/AUD 1.6085GBP/NZD 2.0542GBP/CAD 1.6131GBP/CHF 1.5636GBP/ZAR 11.062GBP/JPY 132.76GBP/NOK 9.4729GBP/HUF 321.01EUR/USD 1.3754Bank of England Inflation ReportYesterday we had the Bank of England Inflation report. They said that inflation is likely to fall back to it's 2% target, and this means there is much less chance of Quantitative Easing. As a result Sterling rose throughout the day against most other currencies. The report itself though wasn't all positive. Governor Mervyn King said the recovery was likely to continue, but its strength depended heavily on developments in the world economy. Adding to the uncertainty are go…

BoE Inflation report may affect Sterling

10th November 2010
Good morning. Yesterday we hit 6 week highs vs the Euro, and 9 month highs vs the US Dollar. As we predicted in yesterdays report, the gains were short lived and Sterling fell back ahead of today's Bank of England report. Rates this morning at 08:30am are as follows: GBP/EUR 1.1578GBP/USD 1.5994GBP/AUD 1.5896GBP/NZD 2.0464GBP/CAD 1.6036GBP/CHF 1.5521GBP/HUF 316.10GBP/ZAR 10.942GBP/JPY 130.55EUR/USD 1.3723Bank of England Inflation Report

Better UK data has been supporting sterling of late, which is the reason rates have risen over the last few weeks. Today though we have the Bank of England inflation report which could change things.

The quarterly report publishes a report of the detailed economic analysis and inflation projections on which the Bank's Monetary Policy Committee bases its interest rate decisions, and presents an assessment of the prospects for UK inflation over the following two years. It can give clues as to Interest rate movements and the chance…

Best exchange rates for US Dollar & Euro

9th November 2010
Good morning. Sterling rose to a 5 week high against the Euro yesterday worries about euro zone debt dented the single currency. Sterling lost some ground against the dollar which was lifted on short covering. We have lots of UK data today that could change things, which we'll cover below in a moment. First, rates at 08:30am this morning are as follows:

GBP/EUR 1.1630GBP/USD 1.6094GBP/AUD 1.5950GBP/NZD 2.0538GBP/CAD 1.6201GBP/CHF 1.5511GBP/ZAR 11.035GBP/JPY 130.04GBP/HUF 320.03GBP/NOK 9.4094EUR/USD 1.3838Sterling vs Euro at 5 week high Worries about Irish debt have weakened the Euro making it cheaper to purchase. Coupled with the better UK data of late, and the result is the best exchange rates to buy Euros in 5 weeks.Markets now look ahead to Wednesday's inflation report from the Bank of England. It will include the BoE's latest growth and inflation forecasts. A news conference with Governor Mervyn King will be watched for clues as to how seriously the mon…

Weekly Currency Report, and fundamental data

Good morning. As usual for a Monday, today we'll review where rates moved last week vs the Euro, US Dollar & Canadian Dollar, and the outlook for Economic Data that may affect rates for the coming week.

Pound vs Euro

This past week has seen an abundance of data releases that affected exchange rates including; the positive manufacturing PMI results, which was higher than expected, but more crucially, the BoE and ECB interest rate decisions.

The fear was Mervyn King may sheepishly follow in Ben Bernanke’s footsteps with regards to QE and introduce the dreaded austerity measure into the UK, leaving Jean-Claude Trichet and the ECB smiling with their strengthened euro. However, whilst the BoE, indeed, decided to hold interest rates at its current level, as did Monsieur Trichet, they have put on hold QE… for now at least.

These more promising results and decisions, acted as the icing on the cake for our better than expected GDP Q3 figures, pushing the pound 4 points higher than its leve…

Pound gains on BoE decision to hold QE

5th November 2010
Good morning. Sterling jumped to a 9 month high against the US Dollar and gained versus the euro yesterday, buoyed by a Bank of England decision to keep rates unchanged and its asset-purchasing programme on hold as we predicted yesterday. Rates at 08:30am are as follows:GBP/EUR 1.1403GBP/USD 1.6203GBP/AUD 1.5941GBP/NZD 2.0423GBP/CAD 1.6243GBP/CHF 1.5520GBP/ZAR 10.992GBP/JPY 130.72GBP/HUF 310.74EUR/USD 1.4207Bank of England decision

The Bank of England has held UK interest rates at a record low and decided not to pump more money into the economy via quantitative easing (QE). The decision to make no change to policy comes after recent figures on the economy showed good growth.

Gross domestic product (GDP) grew at 0.8% in the third quarter - better than expected - and recent manufacturing data was also upbeat. Until these reports some experts had expected there would be more QE. As there was none, the pound gained against other currencies throughout the day.

Pound vs US Dol…

Quantitative Easing, and the effect on Sterling

4th November 2010
Good morning. Quantitative Easing. The FED did it yesterday to the tune of $600bn. The news has weakened the dollar and pushed rates higher. Today the BoE will announce if they decide to follow suit, in what seems to be developing into a war between economies to weaken their currency. More on this in a moment after the usual snapshot of rates:

GBP/EUR 1.1386GBP/USD 1.6174GBP/AUD 1.6032GBP/NZD 2.0508GBP/CAD 1.6248GBP/CHF 1.5652GBP/ZAR 11.018GBP/JPY 130.82GBP/HUF 309.05GBP/AED 5.9348EUR/USD 1.4199FED announce $600bn Quantitative Easing (QE) The Federal Reserve has announced that it will pump $600bn (£373bn) into the US economy by the end of June next year to try to boost the fragile recovery. Interest rates are already close to zero, which means the Fed cannot reduce rates any further in order to boost demand - the more traditional policy used by central banks to stimulate growth.

Instead, it has announced a fresh round of QE, in which it will create money to buy long-dat…

Pound vs Euro forecst, and GBP/USD outlook

3rd November 2010
Good morning. The pound fell against the Euro yesterday, after better than expected EU PMI figures. Against the USD, Sterling remains above $1.60 due to markets awaiting the news of US QE. Today we'll have a detailed look at GBP/EUR and GBP/USD and where rates may move next. First, the usual snapshot of rates as at 08:30am:
GBP/EUR 1.1425GBP/USD 1.6046GBP/AUD 1.6075GBP/NZD 2.0732GBP/CAD 1.6174GBP/CHF 1.5691GBP/ZAR 11.010GBP/JPY 129.33GBP/NOK 9.3703EUR/USD 1.4038Pound vs EuroThe euro rose 1 percent on the day versus sterling on Tuesday, boosted by demand from a European sovereign account, and as sterling came under pressure on soft UK construction activity data. Better Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data from the EU was also higher than expected, strengthening the Euro and pushing exchange rates down by around 1%. So, the Euro is getting stronger and Sterling is still very susceptible to any negative data. With tomorrows Bank of England interest rate decision, alon…

Sterling gains on PMI data; QE eyed for Thursday

2nd November 2010
Good morning. Sterling rose against the euro on Monday after better than forecast UK manufacturing data. This boosted confidence in the UK's economic recovery and reduced the chances of fiscal stimulus from the Bank of England on Thursday. Rates at 08:30am are as follows:
GBP/EUR 1.1512GBP/USD 1.6069GBP/AUD 1.6049GBP/NZD 2.0914GBP/CAD 1.6234GBP/CHF 1.5865GBP/ZAR 11.147GBP/NOK 9.3756GBP/JPY 129.37GBP/ZAR 11.148EUR/USD 1.3955Pound gains on PMI dataThe Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) is an indicator of the economic health of the manufacturing sector. The PMI index is based on five major indicators: new orders, inventory levels, production, supplier deliveries and the employment environment.The figures were much better than expected, and coupled with the better GDP data last week, provided some support for the pound and helped push Sterling higher against most currencies including the Euro. The results mean analysts now think there is less chance the Bank of England wi…