Wednesday, 9 March 2011

Sterling, Euro, US Dollar rate forecasts

9th March 2011
Good morning. Poor housing data and weak retail sales pushed the pound lower against the US Dollar yesterday, but Sterling recovered slightly against the Euro but not by much. At 08:30am this morning rates are as follows:

  • GBP/EUR 1.1646
  • GBP/USD 1.6158
  • GBP/AUD 1.6014
  • GBP/NZD 2.1850
  • GBP/CAD 1.5680
  • GBP/CHF 1.5094
  • GBP/ZAR 11.128
  • GBP/HKD 12.585
  • GBP/NOK 9.0300
  • GBP/JPY 133.75
  • EUR/USD 1.3870

Sterling falls due to weak data

There was weak Retail sales and housing data for the UK yesterday, which pushed the pound lower across the board. In addition, there is speculation that due to the weak recovery the Bank of England won't be able to raise interest rates until around July. "There is no momentum to push sterling higher right now," said Neil Mellor, currency strategist at BNY Mellon. "UK yields are lower than that of the euro area."

Euro still strong on interest rate expectations, debt worries weigh

The single currency has gained on Sterling in the last week due to the fact it's likely interest rates will rise. There are however fears about sovereign debt worries, with many EU banks facing stress tests in the coming months. This meant the pound gained a little against the Euro but not by much. In the near term though, interest rate speculation is likely to keep the Euro strong and exchange rates low.

US Dollar stronger on lower oil prices

Oil prices fell another 2% yesterday, and as the US is such a big importer of oil this helped the USD strengthen slightly, pulling rates down from the 13 month high we saw on Friday last week. The retreat in oil prices also helped the dollar's cause. Brent crude for April delivery fell 0.5 percent to $112.52 per barrel. That helped the greenback move higher against the Swiss franc to 0.9366 franc , up 0.2 percent, for a second straight day of gains versus the Swiss
currency.

Today's Data

Quite important data for the UK today in the form of Trade Balance data. From Germany we have Industrial production. There are various US releases also regards mortgage data and housing figures.

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