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Showing posts from April, 2011

GDP pushes pound up, GBP/USD at 17 month high

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28th April 2011
Good morning. The Pound rose vs the Euro after GDP showed the UK returned to growth, however the gains have been reversed by this morning. Against the US Dollar, a downgrade in US growth forecast has weakened the US Dollar, and rates are touching a 17 month high. At 08:30am this morning rates are as follows:
GBP/EUR 1.1233GBP/USD 1.6681GBP/AUD 1.5253GBP/NZD 2.0687GBP/CAD 1.5799GBP/CHF 1.4522GBP/ZAR 10.970GBP/JPY 136.18GBP/NOK 8.7875GBP/DKK 8.3727EUR/USD 1.4849Sterling gains on GDP data

The UK economy grew by 0.5% in the first three months of the year, official figures have shown, reducing the risk of a double-dip recession. The chancellor welcomed the return to growth, which followed a contraction of 0.5% at the end of 2010. Economists gave a mixed response to the figures.

David Kern, the chief economist at the British Chambers of Commerce, said: "These figures were mixed and well below the Office for Budget Responsibility prediction that the economy would grow by 0.8…

Pound falls vs Euro / GDP figures today

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27th April 2011
Good morning. Sterling fell yesterday against the Euro, pushed down by broad strength in the single currency. The pound also faces more selling pressure if weak UK GDP data further dampens expectations for an interest rate rise in the coming months. At 08:30am this morning rates are as follows:
GBP/EUR 1.1222GBP/USD 1.6458GBP/AUD 1.5222GBP/NZD 2.0411GBP/CAD 1.5664GBP/CHF 1.4405GBP/ZAR 10.944GBP/JPY 134.52GBP/HUF 296.44GBP/NOK 8.7352EUR/USD 1.4662Sterling falls against Euro

Traders said demand from a UK bank for euros against sterling yesterday strengthened the single currency, pushing GBP/EUR rates lower. It also had a knock-on effect on the pound versus the dollar, pushing it further away from a 16-month high hit last week.

Mounting speculation earlier this year that the Bank of England would soon raise interest rates put sterling on a broad upward trend. But an uninspiring run of UK data recently, including figures for industrial production, has prompted investors to tak…

Weekly GBP/EUR & GBP/USD forecast

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In this week’s Report:
Round up of the week’s data that may affect ratesPound vs Euro outlook for the week aheadStelring vs US Dollar close to 16 month high
(For currencies other then GBP, EUR and USD, contact us for a consultation)

Sterling vs. Euro;

During a short week’s trading, the GBP/EUR cross only fluctuated 1.2% between the high and low of the week. Sterling rose vs. the Euro on Tuesday as the single currency weakened due to debt concerns. Portugal had begun talks with international authorities about the terms of a bail-out. Meanwhile Greece, which received a bail-out last year, denied reports that it would have to restructure its debts. The euro lost 1% of its value against Sterling, with market nervousness also spreading to Spain helping push GBP/EUR rates up from the near 1 year low.










Sterling had dropped back into the 1.12's on Wednesday, as the Euro regained some of its losses after the Bank of England (BoE) released the minutes to their decision to hold interest rates 2 …

Pound at 16 month high vs US Dollar, down vs EUR

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21st April 2011
Good morning. The pound is up against the US Dollar, hitting the highest rate in 16 months. Against the Euro however Sterling is down, weighed by uncertainty over the UK economy and the timing of future rate hikes. At 09:30am this morning rates are as follows:
GBP/EUR 1.1271GBP/USD 1.6484GBP/AUD 1.5344GBP/NZD 2.0586GBP/CAD 1.5631GBP/CHF 1.4553GBP/ZAR 11.117GBP/JPY 135.29GBP/HUF 297.20GBP/DKK 8.4049EUR/USD 1.4621Pound down vs Euro on rate hike expectations

Sterling fell sharply against a firmer Euro yesterday after Bank of England minutes showed policymaker caution about economic growth outweighed inflation worries, dimming expectations for a near-term rate hike.

The minutes showed Bank policymakers maintained a 6-3 split in favour of keeping rates on hold this month, leaving them no closer to a rate hike. Further calming the central bank's concerns about high inflation, a survey on Wednesday showed Britons' expectations for what inflation will be in a year's ti…

Pound down vs Euro, up vs USD. BoE minutes today.

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20th April 2011
Good morning. Sterling changed little yesterday as there was no data of note. Against the Euro however rates have fallen due to a stronger single currency. The pound is also up against the US Dollar. Today we have the BoE minutes, which we'll look at after the usual snapshot of rates as at 08:30am:
GBP/EUR 1.1348GBP/USD 1.6376GBP/AUD 1.5441GBP/NZD 2.0597GBP/CAD 1.5601GBP/CHF 1.4643GBP/ZAR 11.117GBP/JPY 135.53GBP/NOK 8.8090GBP/DKK 8.4628GBP/HUF 301.32Pound down vs Euro, up vs US Dollar

Sterling has dropped back into the 1.13's this morning, after the Euro regained some of it's losses on Monday, caused by further sovereign debt fears in the Eurozone. Against the US Dollar however, the Pound is up in the high $1.63's, helped by the risk of the US having it's credit rating downgraded. This has weakened the US Dollar making it cheaper to purchase.

Bank of England Minutes

At 09:30am this morning the Bank of England (BoE) released the minutes to their decision …

Pound up vs Euro on debt worries

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19th April 2011
Good morning. Sterling rose vs the Euro yesterday as the single currency weakened due to debt concerns. The US has had it's credit rating downgraded, but there were no real gains as the pound may struggle as investors price out the possibility of a UK interest rate rise next month. At 08:30am this morning rates are as follows:
GBP/EUR 1.1408GBP/USD 1.6244GBP/AUD 1.5522GBP/NZD 2.0660GBP/CAD 1.5659GBP/CHF 1.4561GBP/ZAR 11.113GBP/JPY 133.99GBP/NOK 8.8711GBP/HUF 304.39EUR/USD 1.4253Pound gains vs weaker Euro

Portugal has begun talks with international authorities about the terms of a bail-out. Meanwhile Greece, which received a bail-out last year, denied reports that it would have to restructure its debts.

The euro lost 1% of its value against the dollar as a result of the reports and also fell vs Sterling, helping push GBP/EUR rates up from the near 1 year low last week.

The market nervousness also spread to Spain, which had to pay sharply higher interest rates to borrow m…

Pound vs Euro & Pound vs US Dollar weekly outlook

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In this week’s Report:

• Interest Rate expectations continue to drive GBP/EUR
• Keep up to date with rate movements with our new i-phone app
• Round up of the week’s data that may affect rates

(For currencies other then GBP, EUR and USD, contact us for a consultation)

Free Currency App for i-phone

Do you have an i-phone? Before we look at the outlook for exchange rates this week, we are pleased to announce the launch of our new i-phone app. You can view live rates, browse the latest news from our research analysts, view historical charts to see past performance and a handy calculator to work out currency values. Click below to find out more and download the app:





Sterling vs. Euro;

The pound continued its downward trend against the Euro last week, with lower inflation figures from the UK weakening Sterling. At one point rates were near a 12 month low, before staging a small recovery at the end of the week:









The Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures released last week showed a fall in inflation fo…

Pound up against weaker Euro

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15th April 2011
Good morning. Sterling rose against the euro yesterday as investors dumped the single currency on speculation Greece may have to restructure its debts. This weakened the Euro making it more expensive to purchase. At 08:30am this morning rates are as follows:
GBP/EUR 1.1289GBP/USD 1.6364GBP/AUD 1.5545GBP/NZD 2.0587GBP/CAD 1.5735GBP/CHF 1.4605GBP/ZAR 11.179GBP/JPY 136.08GBP/NOK 8.8277GBP/HUF 301.20EUR/USD 1.4492Euro weakens

There was worry yesterday over the possibility that Greece might need to restructure its massive public debt. This follows a bailout request from Portugal last week. This weakened the Euro making it cheaper to purchase, and GBP/EUR rates rose as a result.

Sterling flat

Traders said a lack of major UK economic data meant sterling was being driven by movements in other major currencies. It rose against a broadly weak dollar.

Today's Data

Once again we’re quiet on the UK side. From the EU we have trade balance and a raft of inflation data. From the US there…

Pound near 1 year low vs Euro

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13th April 2011
Good morning. A surprise fall in inflation yesterday means there is little chance of a UK interest rate hike any time soon. The figures pushed Sterling to a 6 month low vs the Euro, and very close to the lowest in a year. At 08:30am this morning rates are as follows:
GBP/EUR 1.1218GBP/USD 1.6274GBP/AUD 1.5500GBP/NZD 2.0594GBP/CAD 1.5633GBP/CHF 1.4601GBP/ZAR 10.923GBP/JPY 136.75GBP/HUF 298.64GBP/NOK 8.8457EUR/USD 1.4505Inflation figures push Sterling to near 1 year low vs Euro

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures released yesterday showed a fall in inflation for the first time in 8 months. The fall in food and soft drink prices was the main cause. Lower inflation means that initial expectations of a rate hike in the UK have now been pushed back to November.

The news weakened Sterling and after the figures were released at 09:30am the Pound immediately fell and now sits at close to a 1 year low vs the Euro.

A survey also showed the biggest drop in retail sales in nearly 6 y…

Pound at 5 month low vs Euro; Retail Sales & Inflation

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12th April 2011
Good morning. Sterling has hit a 5 month low vs the Euro this morning as investors bet that UK interest rates would continue to lag those in the euro zone. We have also seen the worst fall in Retail Sales on record that has also pushed the pound lower this morning. Today we have a raft of important inflation data that could further hurt Sterling. At 08:30am this morning rates are as follows:
GBP/EUR 1.1299GBP/USD 1.6292GBP/AUD 1.5555GBP/NZD 2.0823GBP/CAD 1.5591GBP/CHF 1.4718GBP/ZAR 10.886GBP/JPY 137.07GBP/DKK 8.4221GBP/NOK 8.9110GBP/HUF 300.29EUR/USD 1.4417Sterling at 5 month low vs Euro

Diminished expectations of a Bank of England rate hike in May were likely to keep sterling under pressure after the BoE left rates on hold at 0.5 percent last Thursday. The ECB in contrast are likely to raise rates further before the UK. As a result the Euro is much stronger than the pound, and more expensive to purchase.

"The underlying story is that people are losing confidence in …

Pound vs Euro & US Dollar forecast / outlook

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In this week’s Report:

• Effect of Interest Rates on Exchange rates
• EU Bailout affecting Euro
• Pound vs. Euro / Pound vs. US Dollar
• Round up of the week’s data that may affect rates

(For currencies other then GBP, EUR and USD, contact us for a consultation)


Sterling vs. Euro;

In a move that had been widely anticipated since their March meeting, The European Central Bank (ECB) announced on Thursday that the Governing Council had voted to raise the key benchmark interest rate from 1 percent to 1.25 percent. As the ECB looks to drain liquidity from the market, following unprecedented stimulus measures over the past few years in order to prop up growth following the recession, the rate hike may indeed be considered a move back towards normality.

The hike had almost totally been factored-in to the markets before the announcement and so failed to strengthen the Euro as some might have previously suspected would have happened. The hike, aimed at curbing inflation, could spell trouble for weak…

Exchange Rates & Interest Rates (ECB/BoE)

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8th April 2011
Good morning. Interest rates happened as expected yesterday, with the Bank of England leaving rates on hold and the European Central Bank raising by 0.25%. As this was forecast it had surprisingly little effect on exchange rates. We'll look at this in detail after the usual snapshot of rates as at 08:30am:
GBP/EUR 1.1388GBP/USD 1.6418GBP/AUD 1.5577GBP/NZD 2.0980GBP/CAD 1.5648GBP/CHF 1.4978GBP/ZAR 10.894GBP/HKD 12.752GBP/JPY 139.77GBP/HUF 299.74EUR/USD 1.4417Interest Rates in the UK and EU

Sterling rose very slightly against the Euro yesterday after the European Central Bank signalled a euro zone interest rate rise earlier in the day was not necessarily the first in a series.

The Bank of England left its key interest rate on hold at 0.5%. The pound, however, was supported versus the euro as many in the market had been looking for ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet, at an ECB news conference, to indicate that more euro zone rate rises were in store. He didn't, which me…

How Interest Rate decisions may affect Exchange Rates

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7th April 2011
Good morning. Portugal is going to be bailed out, following Greece and Ireland. The markets have reacted little, as of course today is interest rate day, and we expect a rate hike from the EU and that's what is driving rates. We'll look at this in a moment after the usual snapshot of rates as at 08:30am:
GBP/EUR 1.1418GBP/USD 1.6316GBP/AUD 1.5566GBP/NZD 2.1000GBP/CAD 1.5686GBP/CHF 1.4962GBP/ZAR 10.875GBP/JPY 138.96GBP/HUF 301.21GBP/NOK 8.9353EUR/USD 1.4285Sterling falls on Industrial Output data

The pound fell yesterday as data showing a surprise fall in UK industrial output cast a shadow over the economy's growth prospects and reduced the chances for a near-term rise in UK interest rates.

Portugal faces Bail out

Portugal's has requested a bail out from the EU, and this is expected to be discussed when EU finance ministers meet later in Budapest. European Central Bank head Jean-Claude Trichet is also likely to mention Portugal at his news conference after the…

Pound gains vs Euro & USD on PMI data

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6th April 2011
Good morning. Sterling soared to a 2 week high against the US Dollar yesterday, and extended gains against the euro after a surprisingly strong rise in Britain's services sector rekindled expectations of a near-term rate hike. The gains against the Euro may be short lived however as we'll see in a moment. First the usual snapshot of rates as at 08:30am:
GBP/EUR 1.1434GBP/USD 1.6341GBP/AUD 1.5745GBP/NZD 2.1113GBP/CAD 1.5697GBP/CHF 1.5011GBP/ZAR 10.909GBP/JPY 139.25GBP/HUF 300.85GBP/NOK 8.8989EUR/USD 1.4287Pound gains on PMI data

The UK PMI index yesterday showed the service sector growing at its fastest pace in over a year and pointed to solid first-quarter GDP growth, making a Bank of England rate rise in May more likely. The figures were better than expected and Sterling rose as a result.

Since services constitutes the bulk of the economy, analysts said the numbers brighten the chances of a robust first-quarter performance and could strengthen chances of a rate hik…

Sterling gains vs Euro on construction data

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5th April 2011
Good morning. Sterling rose slightly against the Euro yesterday, helped by good UK construction data. Also Portugal has had it's credit rating downgraded, meaning it's likely they will face a bail out. This weakened the Euro and also pushed GBP/EUR higher. At 08:30am this morning rates are as follows:
GBP/EUR 1.1379GBP/USD 1.6156GBP/AUD 1.5629GBP/NZD 2.0986GBP/CAD 1.5630GBP/CHF 1.4896GBP/ZAR 10.863GBP/JPY 136.17GBP/HUF 301.45GBP/NOK 8.8636EUR/USD 1.4192Sterling gains on construction data

The construction sector grew only a touch slower in March than February's 8 month high, data showed yesterday, and a robust number from the services PMI survey could add weight to the view that the Bank of England will raise interest rates in the coming months.

That would give sterling a further boost after a month in which expectations for rates have ebbed and flowed. If you need to buy Euros however, be aware of the fact it's likely the ECB will raise EU interest rates th…

Weekly Pound vs Euro/US Dollar & Economic data

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In this week’s Report:

• Pound hits 5 month low vs. Euro
• EU and UK Interest Rate decisions this week
• GBP/USD falls from 14 month high
• Round up of the week’s data that may affect rates

(For currencies other then GBP, EUR and USD, contact us for a consultation)

Sterling vs. Euro; 5 month low

Sterling fell to a 5 month low vs. the Euro last week, on expectations that interest rates in Europe will rise faster than in the UK and talk of month-end demand from central banks. Sterling’s falls were exacerbated by sterling selling against the Australian dollar, related to insurance payments for flood damage in Queensland.

"There is a sense that the UK economy is going through a ropey phase and selling in sterling has been very steady since last week," said Michael Derks, currency strategist at FXPro. "Further gains look likely while the market embraces the more positive aspects of the euro area periphery story, ECB tightening and softening UK data," he said.

Following Thursday…

Sterling hits new 5 month low vs Euro

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1st April 2011
Good morning. Sterling fell to a fresh 5 month low vs the Euro yesterday after the single currency was boosted by expectations that interest rates in Europe will rise faster than in the UK, and talk of month-end demand from central banks. At 08:30am this morning rates are as follows:
GBP/EUR 1.1346GBP/USD 1.6070GBP/AUD 1.5530GBP/NZD 2.1104GBP/CAD 1.5557GBP/CHF 1.4793GBP/ZAR 10.849GBP/JPY 134.34GBP/HUF 300.98GBP/NOK 8.8758EUR/USD 1.4161Interest Rate speculation continues to drive marketsIt is speculation that the EU will raise interest rates before the UK that is driving exchange rates at the moment. Paul Robson, currency strategist at RBS Global Banking said yesterday that "Further gains look likely while the market embraces the more positive aspects of the euro area periphery story, ECB tightening and softening UK data,".
It is this view that is giving the Euro such strength at the moment, and this is despite news yesterday that Irish banks will need a furthe…