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Showing posts from July, 2011

Pound up vs Euro on debt fears

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Friday 29th July 2011
Good morning. Sterling rose against the Euro yesterday after the Euro weakened on concerns about the EU debt problem spreading, weakening the single currency and pushing rates up. Poor UK data however pushed the Pound down slightly against other currencies. At 08:30am this morning rates are as follows:

• GBP/EUR 1.1431
• GBP/USD 1.6312
• GBP/AUD 1.4908
• GBP/NZD 1.8808
• GBP/CAD 1.5506
• GBP/ZAR 11.029
• GBP/JPY 126.52
• GBP/DKK 8.5139
• GBP/NOK 8.8411
• EUR/USD 1.4266

Sterling up vs Euro on debt fears

Yesterday there was a broad sell off of the Euro after an Italian bond auction, and fears the debt problems will spread to other countries weakened the Euro, pushing it up into the €1.14's. It was only a week or two ago rates were at €1.10, and the gains have been largely driven by problems in the EU rather than any particular strength in the Pound.

Pound still weak after more poor data

British retail sales fell at their fastest pace in a year in July and stores expect a furt…

Getting the best exchange rates for Euros, Pounds, Dollars

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Thursday 28th July 2011
Good morning. Further poor data on Wednesday hurt the Pound, however exchange rates remained high due to Sterling being supported by the problems regarding the US debt ceiling. Today we'll look at the implications of this, and where rates may go moving forwards.

Sterling supported due to problems in US

Sterling dipped slightly on yesterday after disappointing UK factory data, but remained within sight of a 6 week high versus a weak USD and looked set to retain support in the absence of a deal to raise the U.S. debt ceiling. Against the Euro the Pound also rose, as investors bought it as an alternative to the USD, and this supported the Pound.

So what do the analysts say?

"Everyone is looking at the bigger picture of what is going on with the U.S. with the debt ceiling, so sensitivity to data has been somewhat diminished," said Charles Diebel, head of market strategy at Lloyds. This basically supports what happened yesterday, with the Pound rising desp…

Sterling vs Euro down due to GDP

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Tuesday 26th July 2011
Good morning. Sterling is down this morning, ahead of GDP figures later today that are expected to show the economy has slowed. This has pushed the Pound down against other currencies, as the rate snapshot as at 08:30am below shows:

• GBP/EUR 1.1266
• GBP/USD 1.6335
• GBP/AUD 1.4942
• GBP/NZD 1.8736
• GBP/CAD 1.5398
• GBP/ZAR 10.941
• GBP/JPY 127.50
• GBP/DKK 8.3961
• GBP/NOK 8.7538
• EUR/USD 1.4494

UK GDP Figures today

UK growth figures published at 09:30am this morning are expected to show that the UK economy slowed between April and June. They may even show it contracted, some analysts forecast, after growth of 0.5% in the first quarter. This news has weakened Sterling, and exchange rates are down in anticipation of poor figures.

A weak figure from the Office for National Statistics will put pressure on the government to boost growth. The problem for the government is its plan for reducing the deficit relies on a certain amount of growth in the economy to increase the amou…

Weekly GBP/EUR & GBP/USD Forecast Outlook

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In this week’s Report:

• EU bailout agreed, strengthening Euro
• US deficit and credit rating threat weaken USD
• Global Markets surge on the agreement
• Round up of the week’s data that may affect rates

(For currencies other then GBP, EUR and USD, contact us for a consultation)

Sterling vs. Euro;

The main news of last week was of course the details surrounding the European Sovereign debt crisis. Details of how Greece will restructure its massive debts emerged last week as euro zone leaders agreed a package they hope will help resolve the debt crisis. The share prices of banks seen as most exposed to distressed euro zone government debts rose by more than 5%, led by Lloyds, which ended the week almost 20% higher than on Monday.







The news also strengthened both the Euro and to some extent the pound (against other major currencies), as investors calmed about investing in riskier currencies. Against the Dollar, the Euro stayed near a 2 week high as news of the agreement broke. The latest Greek ba…

Sterling & Euro strengthen on aid package, GBP/EUR down

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Friday 22nd July 2011
Good morning. The conclusion from the EU summit yesterday has raised confidence they would solve their debt problems, and both Sterling and the Euro are higher as a result. Sterling has hit a 5 week high vs the US Dollar, but has fallen against the stronger Euro. At 08:30am this morning rates are as follows:

• GBP/EUR 1.1301
• GBP/USD 1.6307
• GBP/AUD 1.5044
• GBP/NZD 1.8897
• GBP/CAD 1.5397
• GBP/ZAR 10.997
• GBP/JPY 128.27
• GBP/DKK 8.4211
• GBP/NOK 8.7812
• EUR/USD 1.4425

Eurozone Aid Package Agreed - Euro strengthens

Details of how Greece will restructure its massive debts have emerged as eurozone leaders agree a package they hope will help resolve the debt crisis. The share prices of banks seen as most exposed to distressed eurozone government debts rose by more than 5%, led by Barclays, which ended the day 7.8% higher. The news also strengthened both the Euro and the Pound, as investors are calmer about investing in riskier currencies.

Meanwhile, the euro stayed near a 2…

EU summit today to cause volatility for GBP/EUR

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Thursday 21st July 2011
Good morning. Sterling has stabilised slightly after the BoE minutes yesterday. 2 members voted for an interest rate hike, but 7 voted to keep rates on hold. 1 member voted for further Quantitative Easing, less than had been thought and this gave the Pound some support. Today we have a crunch meeting of eurozone leaders to resolve the Greek debt crisis and prevent further contagion to other eurozone economies. We'll look at this after the usual 08:30am rate snapshot:

• GBP/EUR 1.1335
• GBP/USD 1.6169
• GBP/AUD 1.5070
• GBP/NZD 1.8863
• GBP/CAD 1.5286
• GBP/ZAR 11.070
• GBP/JPY 127.26
• GBP/DKK 8.4487
• GBP/NOK 8.8331
• EUR/USD 1.4259

Bank of England Minutes

There is a reduced chance of a rise in interest rates in the near term, given recent economic weakness, Bank of England policymakers have said. Minutes from its July meeting showed the Monetary Policy Committee voted seven to two in favour of holding rates at 0.5% for the second month in a row.

The fact only one membe…

Pound down vs Euro ahead of BoE minutes

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Wednesday 20th July 2011
Good morning. Sterling rose against a weaker US Dollar yesterday, but fell against the Euro ahead of today's BoE minutes which could hurt the Pound further. Also buried in the news under the hacking scandal was the fact the IMF have warned on the global economy. Despite the BBC leaping onto the scandal with glee, giving it wall to wall coverage to the detriment of other news stories, markets took note of the IMF's warning. We'll look at all this in a moment after the usual rate snapshot as at 08:30am this morning:

• GBP/EUR 1.1345
• GBP/USD 1.6076
• GBP/AUD 1.4971
• GBP/NZD 1.8786
• GBP/CAD 1.5257
• GBP/ZAR 11.098
• GBP/JPY 126.80
• GBP/DKK 8.4573
• GBP/NOK 8.8700
• EUR/USD 1.4166

Sterling up against US Dollar

A recovery in equities yesterday helped Sterling rise against the US Dollar, as this created sovereign demand for the Pound. This was also helped by a rebound in UK banking stocks, however gains are still limited due to the UK's exposure to the EU deb…

Pound/Euro falls from 2 month high

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Tuesday 19th July 2011
Good morning. Yesterday Sterling hit a near 2 month high vs the Euro nearly getting to €1.15, however the gains were short lived, as the Pound fell through the day on fears the UK economy is slow, debt is high, and the BoE minutes this week could also be negative. At 08:30am this morning rates are as follows:

• GBP/EUR 1.1384
• GBP/USD 1.6114
• GBP/AUD 1.5104
• GBP/NZD 1.8992
• GBP/CAD 1.5395
• GBP/ZAR 11.193
• GBP/JPY 127.28
• GBP/DKK 8.4858
• GBP/NOK 8.9483
• EUR/USD 1.4155

Sterling vs Euro falls on UK economy fears

The EU sovereign debt crisis in the past week had significantly weakened the Euro, helping to push GBP/EUR rates to a near 2 month high. The Pound fell however yesterday, as figures paint a less than rosy picture of the UK economy, meaning interest rates will stay low for some time to come.

It's this weakness in Sterling that has caused rates to fall back away, and the gains have not been anything to do with strength in the Pound, rather weakness in the Euro…

Weekly GBP/EUR & GBP/USD Outlook Forecast

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In this week’s Report:

• EU bank stress tests weaken the Euro, pushing GBP/EUR rates to 1 month high
• Talk of US QE weakens USD, causing GBP/USD to rise
• Weak UK data keeps Sterling’s gains limited despite this
• Round up of the week’s data that may affect rates

(For currencies other then GBP, EUR and USD, contact us for a consultation)

Sterling vs. Euro;

At the beginning of the week the EU debt crisis seemed to have resurfaced with the Euro and European shares falling on concerns that the debt crisis in the Eurozone may spread to Italy and Spain. The concern is that Italy and Spain may have to follow Greece, Portugal and the Republic of Ireland and seek a European Union and International Monetary Fund (IMF) bail-out.












This news had significantly weakened the Euro, and GBP/EUR exchange rates had surged as a result. Just a week ago rates were in the €1.10's, and on Monday morning they were around €1.14. It's important to remember that Sterling is still fundamentally weak, and it's…

Sterling up vs USD and EUR despite weak data

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Friday 15th July 2011
Good morning. Sterling has surprised many in the markets this week, recovering well against the Euro and US Dollar, despite weak data showing the economy is slow. We are at a 3 week high vs the US Dollar, and the debt problems in Europe means the Euro is cheaper to purchase also. At 08:30am this morning rates are as follows:

• GBP/EUR 1.1423
• GBP/USD 1.6121
• GBP/AUD 1.5138
• GBP/NZD 1.9197
• GBP/CAD 1.5492
• GBP/ZAR 11.111
• GBP/JPY 127.63
• GBP/DKK 8.5161
• GBP/NOK 8.9720
• EUR/USD 1.4109

Sterling up against US Dollar and Euro

Sterling's bounce has primarily been on the back of a bearish outlook for the US Dollar and has had little do with any signs of improvement in the UK economy. In fact most analysts had expected the pound to fall further given all the poor data we have seen of late, however with the US Dollar weak, and the Euro facing problems due to debt issues, Sterling has benefited as analysts sought out the Pound as an alternative investment.

Data on Wednesday…

Sterling up vs US Dollar, still weak vs Euro

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Thursday 14th July 2011
Good morning. Sterling has shot up against the weak US Dollar, after the Fed chairman said more monetary policy easing may be necessary. This has significantly weakened the USD, and rates have shot up from $1.58 a few days ago to $1.61. At 08:30am this morning rates are as follows:

• GBP/EUR 1.1352
• GBP/USD 1.6135
• GBP/AUD 1.5017
• GBP/NZD 1.9064
• GBP/CAD 1.5474
• GBP/ZAR 11.017
• GBP/JPY 127.45
• GBP/DKK 8.4644
• GBP/NOK 8.8969
• EUR/USD 1.4207

Sterling gains against US Dollar

Sterling is a full 3 cents higher vs the US Dollar than the 5 month low we saw last week. Ben Bernanke's comments hinting at further Quantitative Easing has significantly weakened the US Dollar, helping GBP/USD rates recover well.

Pound still weak against Euro

However despite gains against the Dollar, Sterling was weaker against the euro after data showing a sharp rise in the number of Britons claiming unemployment benefit added to concerns a faltering UK economy will ensure a prolonged period o…

Pound vs Euro Forecast predictions July 2011

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Wednesday 13th July 2011
Good morning. Sterling lost ground against all currencies yesterday, as inflation figures were much lower than expected, as were retail sales and trade balance figures. This shows the Pound is incredibly weak at the moment, despite the problems in the Eurozone. We'll look at this in a moment after the usual rate snapshot as at 08:30am:

• GBP/EUR 1.1360
• GBP/USD 1.5975
• GBP/AUD 1.4954
• GBP/NZD 1.9328
• GBP/CAD 1.5352
• GBP/ZAR 10.888
• GBP/JPY 126.72
• GBP/DKK 8.4705
• GBP/NOK 8.8642
• EUR/USD 1.4058

Sterling weakens on poor economic data

Inflation figures, Retail Sales, Trade Balance figures, Consumer Prices and House Prices - these are the data releases we had yesterday, and all of them were much worse than expected. This pushed Sterling lower against other currencies, and the spike vs the Euro was also short lived, with GBP/EUR losing over a point during trading yesterday.

The data goes to show that the UK economy is very fragile, and interest rates are unlikely to…

Sterling vs Euro rates surge on Italy debt fears

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Tuesday 12th July 2011
Good morning. The EU debt crisis has resurfaced, this time with fears Italy will be the next country to be affected. The news has significantly weakened the Euro, causing GBP/EUR rates to surge. Against other currencies Sterling continued to fall. At 08:30am this morning rates are as follows:

• GBP/EUR 1.1402
• GBP/USD 1.5833
• GBP/AUD 1.4996
• GBP/NZD 1.9472
• GBP/CAD 1.5420
• GBP/ZAR 10.918
• GBP/JPY 126.31
• GBP/DKK 8.5005
• GBP/NOK 8.8589
• EUR/USD 1.3889

Euro weakness due to Italy/Spain causes GBP/EUR to surge

The Euro and European shares have fallen on concerns that the debt crisis in the eurozone may spread to Italy and Spain. The concern is that Italy and Spain may have to follow Greece, Portugal and the Republic of Ireland and seek a European Union and International Monetary Fund (IMF) bail-out.

The news has significantly weakened the Euro, and GBP/EUR exchange rates have surged as a result. Just a week ago rates were in the €1.10's, and today we are around €1.14…

Weekly GBP/EUR & GBP/USD Forecast July 2011

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Weekly Currency Report 11th July 2011

In this week’s Report:

• Sterling vs. US Dollar remains largely range-bound
• Sterling Euro bounces up due to US Dollar sell-off
• Forecast for GBP/EUR & GBP/USD
• Round up of the week’s data that may affect rates

(For currencies other then GBP, EUR and USD, contact us for a consultation)

Sterling vs. Euro;

We finally saw some respite for the Pound on Friday afternoon as rates moved back above 1.1250 for the first time this month.











The week started with some better than expected UK house price, service sector and manufacturing data but the positive readings did little to help Sterling as the ECB interest rate decision was looming on the horizon. It had widely been expected (and most likely already priced in to the market) that the ECB would raise interest rates by a quarter point to 1.5%, especially after Jean-Claude Trichet, the head of the European Central Bank, had used his codeword of “strong vigilance” with regards to inflation after last month’s a…

Getting best exchange rates for Euros

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Friday 8th July 2011
Good morning. As expected yesterday, the Bank of England left interest rates on hold, and the ECB raised rates to 1.5%. After the usual snapshot of rates we'll look at the effect of this on exchange rates.

• GBP/EUR 1.1142
• GBP/USD 1.5958
• GBP/AUD 1.4805
• GBP/NZD 1.9151
• GBP/CAD 1.5294
• GBP/ZAR 10.657
• GBP/JPY 129.73
• GBP/DKK 8.3105
• GBP/NOK 8.6163
• EUR/USD 1.4313

Bank of England

As widely expected, rates were left on hold at 0.5% yesterday, and analysts do not expect any rise until well into 2012. The BoE also decided to not pursue any further quantitative Easing, and due to this there were slight gains for Sterling. There were also slightly better manufacturing numbers yesterday, helping the pound gain slightly.

Any increase in rates were shot lived however, and the numbers did little to change overall market expectations that the Bank of England will leave interest rates at a record low 0.5% for some months to come.

Sentiment towards the pound was further dented …

Interest Rates and effect on exchange rates

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Thursday 7th July 2011
Good morning. Today is the busiest and probably most important day of the week. Starting in the UK, we have various measures of manufacturing and industrial production, and also a GDP estimate. We will also see the BoE interest rate decision, but we expect no change in rates. Moving to the EU, we have an interest rate decision and we expect a rise from 1.25% to 1.50%. This could well strengthen the Euro and push GBP/EUR rates lower. At 08:30am this morning rates are as follows:

• GBP/EUR 1.1169
• GBP/USD 1.5971
• GBP/AUD 1.4878
• GBP/NZD 1.9303
• GBP/CAD 1.5425
• GBP/ZAR 10.718
• GBP/JPY 129.21
• GBP/DKK 8.3274
• GBP/NOK 8.6467
• EUR/USD 1.4297

Interest Rates and effect on exchange rates

Today we have interest rate decisions in both the UK and EU. Starting in the UK, while we expect no change in rates, there has been recent speculation that the Bank of England may opt to restart its asset purchase programme (Quantitative Easing), which continued to keep the UK currency under…

Will Sterling vs Euro rates go back up?

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Wednesday 6th July 2011
Good morning. Sterling actually made some gains yesterday, pushed up by better than expected PMI data, however the recovery is still sluggish and so gains are limited. Portugal's credit rating has also been downgraded to 'junk' and the Euro has weakened slightly. At 08:30am this morning rates are as follows:

• GBP/EUR 1.1129
• GBP/USD 1.6009
• GBP/AUD 1.4967
• GBP/NZD 1.9390
• GBP/CAD 1.5432
• GBP/ZAR 10.785
• GBP/JPY 129.43
• GBP/DKK 8.3001
• GBP/NOK 8.6188
• EUR/USD 1.4381

UK Services PMI pushes Pound higher

The UK service sector sustained "solid" growth in June as volumes of new business continued to rise, according to a closely-watched index. The purchasing managers' index (PMI) edged up to 53.9 in June from 53.8 in May. A reading above 50 indicates expansion, and the figures were much better than had been forecast. As a result Sterling rose slightly against other currencies.

Portugal credit rating downgraded

The credit ratings agency Moody's…

Will Pound fall lower vs Euro? Forecast July 2011

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Tuesday 5th July 2011
Good morning. The markets remained flat yesterday with markets closed in the USA for Independence day. Sterling remained near it's 15 month low vs the Euro still due to interest rate differentials. At 08:30am this morning rates are as follows:

• GBP/EUR 1.1056
• GBP/USD 1.6010
• GBP/AUD 1.4965
• GBP/NZD 1.9311
• GBP/CAD 1.5395
• GBP/ZAR 10.758
• GBP/JPY 129.81
• GBP/DKK 8.2465
• GBP/NOK 8.5717
• EUR/USD 1.4476

Sterling remains low vs Euro on interest rate differentials

The pound hovered near the 15 month low hit against the euro last week as investors awaited Thursday's central bank meetings in the UK and the euro zone. A further monetary tightening by the European Central Bank is expected while UK interest rates are seen chained near record lows. Higher interest rates in the EU will mean a higher return for investors, and therefore the single currency will strengthen due to the demand, pushing GBP/EUR lower.

Sterling has suffered against a widely recovering euro afte…

GBP/EUR forecast, GBP/USD outlook, weekly data

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As usual for a Monday, today we'll have a detailed weekly look at Sterling vs Euro forecast, Sterling vs US Dollar outlook, and the weekly data that may affect exchange rates:

In this week’s Report:

• Pound vs. Euro drops to 18 month low
• EU Interest Rates likely to go up this week
• Greek austerity plan agreed, affecting EUR and USD
• Round up of the week’s data that may affect rates

Sterling vs. Euro;

The GBP/EUR rate plummeted last week to the lowest since March 2010, falling against a basket of currencies as well as the Euro. Britain’s currency slid against the Euro in particular on predictions that a faltering economy will limit the policy makers’ scope to raise interest rates, as the European Central Bank lifts borrowing costs to curb inflation. A report on Thursday showed U.K. consumer confidence fell more than economists forecast in June while the Bank of England’s Credit Conditions Survey said mortgage demand is predicted to drop in the third quarter.











It was a dramatic week with…

Sterling hits 15 month low vs Euro

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Friday 1st July 2011
Good morning. Sterling fell to a 15 month low yesterday against both the Euro and a basket of currencies, on month and quarter end selling. The Euro also gained strength after the ECB reiterated their view EU interest rates will rise next week. At 08:30am this morning rates are as follows:

GBP/EUR 1.1067
GBP/USD 1.6069
GBP/AUD 1.4991
GBP/NZD 1.9429
GBP/CAD 1.5475
GBP/CHF 1.3584
GBP/ZAR 10.866
GBP/JPY 129.68
GBP/DKK 8.2540
GBP/NOK 8.6512
EUR/USD 1.4516
Pound falls to 15 month low vs Euro

Yesterday the European Central Bank president reiterated his hawkish comments that mean it's very likely EU interest rates will go up next Thursday. This pushed the GBP/EUR rate lower, and it hit a 15 month low due to the fact the Euro is stronger than Sterling.

The second round of votes in Greece on austerity measures also went through, calming the markets and giving more reasons for the Euro to gain strength. We also saw German unemployment figures, showing the lowest unemployment si…