Showing posts from October, 2011

Weekly GBP/EUR & GBP/USD and the weeks data

Monday 31st October 2011
Good morning. It's Halloween, and it will be interesting to see if the markets are still 'spooked' over the debt crisis, or if last weeks late night agreement will help stabilise the Euro and 'raise Greece from the dead'. Today we will have a detailed look at the movements in Sterling/Euro and Sterling/US Dollar over the last week, and the forecast and predictions for where rates may be headed.

In this week’s Report:

• EU summit agreement strengthens Euro, pushing GBP/EUR lower
• GBP/USD hits 7 week high on dollar weakness
• Uncertainty over further QE keeps Sterling at risk
• Round up of the week’s data that may affect rates

(For currencies other then GBP, EUR and USD, contact us for a consultation)

Sterling vs. Euro;

All eyes were focused on the outcome of the EU Summit meeting last week. GBP/EUR started the week around the €1.15 level, and stayed relatively steady until Wednesday’s EU leaders meeting in Brussels; they agreed to expand the Euro zo…

Sterling/Euro lower after deal. Outlook/Forecast

Friday 28th October 2011
Good morning. Sterling hit a 7 week high yesterday after the EU rescue deal, but fell sharply against the Euro. The EU agreement bolstered market sentiment, strengthening the Euro significantly against the Pound, and it also buoying equities and perceived riskier currencies such as Sterling. At 08:30am this morning rates are as follows:

• GBP/EUR 1.1349
• GBP/USD 1.6076
• GBP/AUD 1.5065
• GBP/NZD 1.9651
• GBP/CHF 1.3882
• GBP/CAD 1.5946
• GBP/ZAR 12.4197
• GBP/JPY 121.87
• GBP/DKK 8.4467
• GBP/NOK 8.7084
• EUR/USD 1.4161

EU rescue deal strengthens the Euro

In negotiations in Brussels on Wednesday, euro zone leaders struck a deal for private banks and insurers to accept a 50% loss on their Greek government bonds, and agreed to beef up the region's rescue fund by €1 trillion. Yesterday this had a significant effects on exchange rates, with big swings for major currency pairs.

The Euro gained strength as the markets seemed to like the deal. This pushed GBP/EUR rates quite a…

EU Deal agreed, GBP/EUR rates fall

Thursday 27th October 2011
Good morning. Leaders from all 27 European Union nations have finally thrashed out a deal to solve the crisis started by concern over how Greece would cope with its debts. We'll look at the details of the deal shortly, but in short the net effect is a stronger Euro, pushing GBP/EUR rates lower by a point already. At 08:30am this morning rates are as follows:

• GBP/EUR 1.1424
• GBP/USD 1.5999
• GBP/AUD 1.5190
• GBP/NZD 1.9805
• GBP/CHF 1.3992
• GBP/CAD 1.5983
• GBP/ZAR 12.5133
• GBP/JPY 121.42
• GBP/DKK 8.5032
• GBP/NOK 8.7618
• EUR/USD 1.4002

Eurozone deal agreed

The eurozone have finally agreed a deal on expanding the bailout fund and banks taking losses on Greek debt in exchange for recapitalisation. The news last night was greeted positively by the markets, with shares gaining in Asia overnight, and the Euro gaining strength of around 1% against the US Dollar, and around 0.6% against Sterling, pushing GBP/EUR rates lower.

The reason Pound vs Euro rates didn't fa…

How will EU debt summit affect exchange rate forecast

Wednesday 26th October 2011
Good morning. The Pound fell slightly yesterday, as riskier currencies such as Sterling came under pressure amid uncertainty as to whether policymakers will take major steps to tackle the euro zone debt crisis. It was announced yesterday that meeting of EU finance ministers which was to have preceded the leaders' summit was postponed, throwing doubt over a resolution. At 08:30am this morning rates are as follows:

• GBP/EUR 1.1500
• GBP/USD 1.6021
• GBP/AUD 1.5427
• GBP/NZD 2.0088
• GBP/CHF 1.4036
• GBP/CAD 1.6226
• GBP/ZAR 12.6774
• GBP/JPY 121.55
• GBP/DKK 8.5599
• GBP/NOK 8.8482
• EUR/USD 1.3926

EU debt summit - how will this affect exchange rates?

European Union leaders are gathering again today for an emergency summit in Brussels hoping to finalise details of a plan to tackle the eurozone debt crisis. There are fears that the Greek debt crisis could spread to Italy and Spain, and this has caused market turmoil in recent weeks and months.

It was announced yesterday…

Pound steady ahead of EU debt summit meeting

Tuesday 25th October 2011
Good morning. There was cautious optimism in the currency markets yesterday, with European leaders expected to hammer out a solution to the debt crisis over the next few days. This helped push Sterling to a 6 week high against the US Dollar, but it fell against the AUD and Euro slightly. Today we'll take a look at how the EU debt summit may affect Sterling exchange rates. At 08:30am this morning rates are as follows:

• GBP/EUR 1.1496
• GBP/USD 1.5985
• GBP/AUD 1.5277
• GBP/NZD 1.9891
• GBP/CHF 1.4095
• GBP/CAD 1.6013
• GBP/ZAR 12.627
• GBP/JPY 121.62
• GBP/DKK 8.5576
• GBP/NOK 8.8346
• EUR/USD 1.3901

Markets steady ahead of EU debt summit

At the summit at the weekend the EU neared an agreement and they came closer to a deal to leverage the euro area's rescue fund. This helped calm the markets slightly. However a final decision was put off until the second meeting tomorrow, and significant differences remain over the size of losses holders of Greek government debt w…

Weekly GBP/EUR & GBP/USD and the weeks data

Monday 24th October 2011
Good morning. As always on a Monday, today we take a detailed look at the last weeks movements in GBP/EUR, GBP/USD and the weeks economic data.

In this week’s Report:

• EU debt crisis continues to affect GBP/EUR rates
• European Leaders hold summit to discuss solution
• Further Quantitative Easing possible for the UK
• Round up of the week’s data that may affect rates

(For currencies other then GBP, EUR and USD, contact us for a consultation)

Sterling vs. Euro;

Sterling began the week at a five-week low versus the Euro on speculation the European Union will decisively address the region's debt crisis this week. Sterling fell as low as 1.1360, its weakest since early September.

Surprise inflation data showed UK consumer prices rose 0.6% last month. That took the annual rate of consumer price inflation to 5.2%, a three-year high. The higher inflation was due to soaring utility bills and not really a sign of increased economic activity. Instead rising prices are likely…

Sterling up against Euro on EU summit concerns

Friday 21st October 2011
Good morning. The pound fell slightly against the US Dollar yesterday, but continued it's volatility vs the Euro, and rose a point to nearly €1.15. This was because of doubts the EU summit this weekend would go ahead, and whether or not they would reach a deal on leveraging the euro zone rescue fund. This weakened the Euro and pushed GBP/EUR rates up. At 08:30am this morning rates are as follows:

• GBP/EUR 1.1479
• GBP/USD 1.5779
• GBP/AUD 1.5416
• GBP/NZD 1.9901
• GBP/CHF 1.4044
• GBP/CAD 1.6023
• GBP/ZAR 12.919
• GBP/JPY 120.98
• GBP/DKK 8.5440
• GBP/NOK 8.8584
• EUR/USD 1.3740

Pound gains vs Euro on EU bailout doubts

Yesterday the volatility in GBP/EUR rates continued, as investors questioned how much progress would be made on resolving the EU debt crisis at the EU summit this weekend. There was a German media report that said they had not ruled out postponing the meeting.

This weekend will be very important for the future of the Eurozone, and analysts said that the P…

Sterling up against Euro on risk sentiment

Thursday 20th October 2011
Good morning. Sterling rose yesterday and hit a 1 month high against the US Dollar, and was also up against the Euro. It was nothing to do with any particularly good data, rather it has been supported by better risk sentiment. At 08:30am this morning rates are as follows:

• GBP/EUR 1.1477
• GBP/USD 1.5711
• GBP/AUD 1.5453
• GBP/NZD 1.9838
• GBP/CHF 1.4233
• GBP/CAD 1.6064
• GBP/ZAR 12.683
• GBP/JPY 120.44
• GBP/DKK 8.5436
• GBP/NOK 8.8596
• EUR/USD 1.3684

Sterling up on risk sentiment

Gains in European stock markets, and optimism that progress would be taken by euro zone policymakers towards solving the debt crisis pushed up sentiment towards the pound yesterday. Investors are returning to riskier currencies on the better EU outlook, and this helped the Pound gain against other currencies.

However, analysts are still saying that while there are signs that progress on tackling the euro zone debt crisis will be made this weekend, a comprehensive and a durable solution was un…

Pound lower on inflation data and BoE minutes

Wednesday 19th October 2011
Good morning. Sterling fell yesterday after inflation was higher than expected. We have the Bank of England (BoE) minutes today which analysts also expect to be dovish, so the Pound is bracing itself for a possible further drop. At 08:30am this morning rates are as follows:

• GBP/EUR 1.1411
• GBP/USD 1.5764
• GBP/AUD 1.5290
• GBP/NZD 1.9716
• GBP/CHF 1.4153
• GBP/CAD 1.5932
• GBP/ZAR 12.525
• GBP/JPY 120.92
• GBP/DKK 8.4917
• GBP/NOK 8.8114
• EUR/USD 1.3814

UK Inflation data weakens the Pound

The rate of Consumer Prices Index (CPI) inflation yesterday hit its record high in September, rising to 5.2% from 4.5%. This was higher than expected, and the latest RPI measure is the highest annual rate since June 1991.

The Bank of England had already predicted that inflation would top 5% this year as a result of higher utility bills, but it expects price rises to slow in 2012 and 2013. Despite the high numbers, many economists agree with the Bank of England that inflation may soon…

Pound up against Euro, but gains may be short lived

Tuesday 18t October 2011
Good morning. Sterling fell against the US Dollar yesterday, tracking losses in the Euro. The weaker Euro however helped push GBP/EUR rates up by nearly 1%, after comments from German officials tempered optimism that a European Union summit this week will produce a comprehensive plan to tackle the euro zone debt crisis. At 08:30am this morning rates are as follows:

• GBP/EUR 1.1495
• GBP/USD 1.5750
• GBP/AUD 1.5546
• GBP/NZD 1.9978
• GBP/CHF 1.4178
• GBP/CAD 1.6135
• GBP/ZAR 12.673
• GBP/JPY 120.91
• GBP/DKK 8.5568
• GBP/NOK 8.8865
• EUR/USD 1.3700

Euro weakens pushing GBP/EUR rates higher

The German Finance Minister yesterday dampened demand for the euro when he said Sunday's summit of EU leaders will not present a definitive solution for the region's significant debt problems. This weakened the Euro, making the single currency cheaper to purchase.

His comments helped boost GBP/EUR rates up from a 5 week low. However the Pound dropped against other currencies such a…

Weekly GBP/EUR & GBP/USD and the weeks data

Monday 17th October 2011
Good morning. As regular readers will know, on a Monday I take stock of movements in GBP/EUR & GBP/USD over the last week, with forecasts on what may happen in the coming week. I will also list the most important economic data to watch for that may affect rates.

In this week’s Report:

• Poor economic figures hurt Sterling
• G20 discuss EU debt crisis
• Downgrading of Banks continues
• Round up of the week’s data that may affect rates

(For currencies other then GBP, EUR and USD, contact us for a consultation)

Sterling vs. Euro;

Sterling lost over 2% against the Euro last week as it fell from above 1.16 on Monday, to end the week struggling to remain above 1.14. The main data releases couldn’t have been more confusing when trying to gauge the current state of the UK economy with jobs figures on Wednesday showing that the UK unemployment rate is at its highest since 1994, rising above 8%, followed by data on Thursday that showed the trade deficit figures for August we…

G20 meet to discuss EU debt crisis

Friday 14th October 2011
Good morning. Despite Trade Balance figures for the UK being better than expected, Sterling fell against the US Dollar as both the Pound and the Euro weakened after the European Central Bank said that the sovereign debt crisis could damage the euro's reputation. I would have thought that obvious, but there was still market reaction to the statement. At 08:30am this morning rates are as follows:

• GBP/EUR 1.1443
• GBP/USD 1.5759
• GBP/AUD 1.5452
• GBP/NZD 1.9828
• GBP/CHF 1.4152
• GBP/CAD 1.6073
• GBP/ZAR 12.368
• GBP/JPY 121.21
• GBP/DKK 8.5169
• GBP/NOK 8.8737
• EUR/USD 1.3771

UK Trade Balance better than expected

The UK's trade deficit narrowed in August official figures have shown. Analysts said the stronger exports may boost the economic growth figures, however there were limited gains for Sterling on the news.

Howard Archer, chief UK economist at IHS Global Insight, said the August figures were "appreciably better than expected". The latest trade figur…

Sterling vs Euro at risk of further falls

Thursday 13th October 2011
Good morning. Sterling has risen to a 4 week high against the US Dollar, as investors move away from the safe haven currency, weakening USD and making it cheaper to purchase. Against the Euro however, the Pound has fallen to the €1.14 level, as changes to the EU bailout fund look set to go through, strengthening the Euro and pushing rates lower. At 08:30am this morning rates are as follows:

• GBP/EUR 1.1400
• GBP/USD 1.5733
• GBP/AUD 1.5395
• GBP/NZD 1.9764
• GBP/CHF 1.4069
• GBP/CAD 1.5998
• GBP/ZAR 12.2767
• GBP/JPY 121.19
• GBP/DKK 8.4769
• GBP/NOK 8.8355
• EUR/USD 1.3818

Sterling rises to 4 week high vs US Dollar

Sterling has risen to it's highest in a month against the US Dollar. Exchange rates for USD are now well above the 14 month low of $1.52 we saw recently. There has not been any particularly poor data from the USA, it's simply the fact that with the uncertainty surround Greece and financial markets, investors had been moving to the safe haven USD, stre…

Sterling vs Euro exchange rate forecast

Wednesday 12th October 2011
Good morning. Further poor UK data has pushed Sterling down against other currencies. The Euro also strengthened pushing GBP/EUR rates down quite a bit, after Greece's international lenders said the country would receive vital bailout funds next month. At 08:30am this morning rates are as follows:

• GBP/EUR 1.1423
• GBP/USD 1.5594
• GBP/AUD 1.5641
• GBP/NZD 1.9905
• GBP/CHF 1.4170
• GBP/CAD 1.6017
• GBP/ZAR 12.297
• GBP/JPY 119.52
• GBP/DKK 8.5012
• GBP/NOK 8.8790
• EUR/USD 1.3650

Sterling remains weak due to poor UK data

The UK's recovery is likely to be the weakest of any since the end of World War I, the National Institute for Economic and Social Research said yesterday. Other figures from the Office for National Statistics data showed the manufacturing sector shrank in August, putting further pressure on the Pound.

The ONS data showed the UK's manufacturing output was 0.3% lower August than in July. Compared with a year ago, it was 1.5% higher, which is th…

Sterling falls vs Euro but up vs US Dollar

Tuesday 11th October 2011
Good morning. Sterling has dropped vs the Euro, on a French & German plan to do what was necessary to shore up banks, settle the Greek debt crisis and help growth in Europe. This strengthened the Euro and pushed rates down. The Pound was up against the US Dollar. At 08:30am this morning rates are as follows:

• GBP/EUR 1.1462
• GBP/USD 1.5658
• GBP/AUD 1.5709
• GBP/NZD 1.9998
• GBP/CHF 1.4136
• GBP/CAD 1.6121
• GBP/ZAR 12.295
• GBP/JPY 120.02
• GBP/DKK 8.5298
• GBP/NOK 8.9204
• EUR/USD 1.3653

French / German plan strengthens the Euro

The Euro gained strength yesterday as investors took comfort from the pledge by French and German leaders to do what it takes to protect European banks from the debt crisis. This pushed the GBP/EUR rate down as markets were calmer about developments with the EU debt crisis.

Markets were also boosted by the bailout of troubled Franco-Belgian bank Dexia, dispelling fears it could go bankrupt. Following talks with French President Nicolas Sarko…

Weekly GBP/EUR & GBP/USD and the weeks data

Monday 10th October 2011
Good morning. It's a Monday morning, so let's take stock of where rates have moved over the course of the last week, which was an extremely volatile one for the currency markets!

In this week’s Report:

• Bank of England announce £75bn Quantitative Easing
• GBP/USD falls to 14 month low
• GBP/EUR hits 7 month high before dropping sharply
• Round up of the week’s data that may affect rates

(For currencies other then GBP, EUR and USD, contact us for a consultation)

Sterling vs Euro

Last week saw GPB/EUR hit the highest level in 7 months, briefly breaking the €1.17 level. The gains were short lived though, and by the end of the week rates were around the €1.1550 level, however still very close to the 7 month high considering it had been in the €1.13’s just several weeks ago. The volatility within the Eurozone has continued with decisions made on Quantitative Easing (QE) and Moody’s downgrade of banks within Greece, Portugal and the UK.

The start of the week saw trad…

Sterling falls as £75bn Quantitative Easing announced

Friday 7th October 2011
Good morning. Sterling tumbled yesterday as the Bank of England embarked on another round of Quantitative Easing, as I said they may in yesterdays post. The scale of the stimulus (£75bn) surprised the markets, and the Pound fall sharply as a result. At 08:30am this morning rates are as follows:

• GBP/EUR 1.1535
• GBP/USD 1.5521
• GBP/AUD 1.5822
• GBP/NZD 2.0029
• GBP/CHF 1.4252
• GBP/CAD 1.6103
• GBP/ZAR 12.298
• GBP/JPY 118.87
• GBP/DKK 8.5846
• GBP/NOK 9.0136
• EUR/USD 1.3452

Bank of England in £75 billion Quantitative Easing

Yesterday the Bank of England announced £75 billion of QE. This has surprised the markets, as in the past they have done this in £25bn increments. The scale of the stimulus was not expected and as soon as it was announced, Sterling fell sharply by over 1% against other currencies.

Analysts said the BoE's decision to buy 75 billion pounds in UK assets over four months was negative for sterling as the UK leads other developed countries in the latest …

Effect of Quantitative Easing on Exchange Rates

Thursday 6th October 2011
Good morning. Sterling exchange rates rose a little yesterday morning after a UK services sector survey data was better than expected. Gains were short lived however, as the Pound remains under pressure on growing expectations the Bank of England will soon announce further quantitative easing to boost the economy, this could happen today. At 08:30am this morning rates are as follows:

• GBP/EUR 1.1578
• GBP/USD 1.5429
• GBP/AUD 1.5937
• GBP/NZD 2.0102
• GBP/CHF 1.4298
• GBP/CAD 1.6065
• GBP/ZAR 12.243
• GBP/JPY 118.30
• GBP/DKK 8.6177
• GBP/NOK 9.0613
• EUR/USD 1.3319

Could the Bank of England announce Quantitative Easing today?

Data yesterday showed UK economic growth is almost non existent. The revised GDP figures showed the economy is pretty much at a standstill, and has been now for 6 months. This increases the case for further Quantitative Easing, which many analysts believe will happen if not today, then in November.

Pumping money into the economy would help keep inter…

Pound at risk of more falls; QE and GDP figures

Wednesday 5th October 2011
Good morning. Sterling fell to a 13 month low against the US Dollar yesterday, and was under pressure against the Euro after weak UK construction data added weight to speculation the Bank of England may resort to more easing. Despite Italy having it's credit rating downgraded, GBP/EUR rates remain lower due to the threat of QE. At 08:30 this morning rates are as follows:

• GBP/EUR 1.1585
• GBP/USD 1.5428
• GBP/AUD 1.6154
• GBP/NZD 2.0272
• GBP/CHF 1.4218
• GBP/CAD 1.6274
• GBP/ZAR 12.541
• GBP/JPY 118.32
• GBP/DKK 8.6202
• GBP/NOK 9.0654
• EUR/USD 1.3314

Pound under pressure due to Quantitative Easing risk

Yesterday poor construction data increased the chance of monetary easing from the BoE this week. So what do the analysts say about possible QE?

"Any individual piece of data that reinforces the message the economy is not in fantastic shape and points to the Bank potentially implementing further (quantitative easing) will get a negative response from the currency…