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Showing posts from November, 2011

Sterling strengthens after Budget Statement

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Wednesday 30th November 2011
Good morning. The Budget statement yesterday reinforced Sterling as a safe haven currency within Europe, pushing exchange rates higher against other currencies, and to a near 9 month high against the Euro as the EU debt crisis deepens. So why has the Pound risen against the Euro? Today we'll take a look at what strengthened the Pound and the forecast for GBP/EUR rates. At 08:30am this morning rates are as follows:

• GBP/EUR 1.1710
• GBP/USD 1.5535
• GBP/AUD 1.5598
• GBP/NZD 2.0492
• GBP/CHF 1.4355
• GBP/CAD 1.6076
• GBP/ZAR 13.073
• GBP/JPY 121.04
• GBP/DKK 8.7067
• GBP/NOK 9.1185
• EUR/USD 1.3265

UK Budget Statement strengthens Sterling

Chancellor George Osborne yesterday updated MPs on the state of the economy and the government's future plans in his Autumn Statement as the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) publishes its latest growth and borrowing forecasts. You can read a detailed report on what happened here on the BBC site, as here we will only focu…

UK Budget statement today

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Tuesday 29th November 2011
Good morning. The Pound rose slightly against the USD yesterday, but remained range-bound against the Euro as comments from Bank of England policymakers that more asset purchases may be needed to boost UK economic growth helped to curb some of sterling's gains. At 08:30am this morning rates are as follows:

• GBP/EUR 1.1630
• GBP/USD 1.5514
• GBP/AUD 1.5594
• GBP/NZD 2.0508
• GBP/CHF 1.4305
• GBP/CAD 1.6034
• GBP/ZAR 12.923
• GBP/JPY 120.86
• GBP/DKK 8.6499
• GBP/NOK 9.1344
• EUR/USD 1.3336

UK Budget Statement today

Chancellor George Osborne will today outline plans to boost the UK's slow economy. This is against expected gloomy forecasts for growth, after the OECD warned yesterday that the UK was likely to slip back into recession.

They predicted a 0.03% contraction in the UK economy this quarter, and a further 0.15% the next. Bank of England governor Sir Mervyn King told MPs that growth would be flat for the next six months as the eurozone crisis threatens the UK&…

Weekly GBP/EUR & GBP/USD and the weeks data

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Monday 28th November 2011
Good morning. It's the start of a new week, so today we'll take a detailed look at how the currency markets fared last week, in particular Sterling against the Euro and US Dollar.

In this week’s Report:

• Sterling/US Dollar rates hit 7 week low
• EU debt crisis keeps Euro weak
• ECOFIN meeting could affect GBP/EUR levels
• Round up of the week’s data that may affect rates

(For currencies other then GBP, EUR and USD, contact us for a consultation)

Sterling vs. Euro;

It was a slightly less volatile week than we have been used to of late, but we still saw more than 1.5 cents between the high and the low as risky currencies suffered in the early part of the week as Spanish government bonds climbed to a much higher price than was anticipated, and German bonds saw weak demand, raising concerns that German sovereign debt may be losing its safe-haven appeal. Sterling/Euro started to move up from the low seen on Wednesday of 1.1544 and the decline in the single currenc…

Sterling hits 7 week low vs US Dollar

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Friday 25th November 2011
Good morning. Sterling hit a 7 week low against the US Dollar yesterday, as there have been no signs of progress on resolving the euro zone debt crisis. This prompted investors to shun riskier currencies such as Sterling. Debt problems in the euro zone along with the weakest German bond auction in more than a decade have also weakened the Euro, and at 08:30am this morning rates are as follows:

• GBP/EUR 1.1641
• GBP/USD 1.5481
• GBP/AUD 1.5956
• GBP/NZD 2.0870
• GBP/CHF 1.4294
• GBP/CAD 1.6223
• GBP/ZAR 13.166
• GBP/JPY 119.75
• GBP/DKK 8.6545
• GBP/NOK 9.1253
• EUR/USD 1.3296

UK Economy grows at 0.5%

UK economic growth between July and September was left unchanged in the latest figures from the Office for National Statistics. The Bank of England has forecast that the economy will stagnate in the next three months of this year, and is likely to grow at between 0.7-0.8% next year. The ONS said inventory growth added 0.7% to GDP in the third quarter.

BoE vote 9-0 for rate hol…

Sterling hits 6 week low vs USD

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Tuesday 22nd November 2011
Good morning. The Pound fell yesterday to a 6 week low against the US Dollar, and also dropped against the Euro, as investors shunned riskier currencies in favour for safe haven assets such as the USD. The EU debt crisis however is keeping the Euro weak and has limited drops in GBP/EUR rates. At 08:30am this morning rates are as follows:

• GBP/EUR 1.1577
• GBP/USD 1.5681
• GBP/AUD 1.5849
• GBP/NZD 2.0868
• GBP/CHF 1.4310
• GBP/CAD 1.6250
• GBP/ZAR 12.951
• GBP/JPY 120.65
• GBP/DKK 8.6143
• GBP/NOK 9.0538
• EUR/USD 1.3543

Pound falls to 6 week low against the US Dollar

Investors have been seeking safety due to the market turmoil caused by the Eurozone debt crisis. When there is economic uncertainty, investors tend to move away from riskier currencies such as Sterling, and instead seek the perceived safety of the US Dollar. This has strengthened the US Dollar and pushed GBP/USD rates to a 6 week low.

Sterling at risk of further drops this week

There is some key data this week…

Weekly GBP/EUR & GBP/USD and the weeks data

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Monday 21st November 2011
Good morning, and welcome to a new week in the currency markets. As customary for Monday mornings, today I will give a detailed assessment of GBP/EUR, GBP/USD, and a full breakdown of economic data releases that may affect exchange rates.

In this week’s Report:

• UK GDP and BoE minutes this week could weaken GBP
• Italy’s bond yields keep Euro weak and GBP/EUR high
• US Dollar strengthens, pushing GBP/USD down
• Round up of the week’s data that may affect rates

(For currencies other then GBP, EUR and USD, contact us for a consultation)

Sterling vs. Euro;

Sterling struggled last week with weak sentiment, and expectations of a slow and protracted economic recovery with GBP/EUR rates hovering a little below an 8 month high, as the chart below clearly illustrates:













A jittery European market rolled over from the week before, with France and Germany clashing again on differing opinions on how best to handle the current economic crisis. One wanting the ECB to do more while the…

Pound gains after good Retail Sales data

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Friday 18th November 2011
Good morning. The Pound rose slightly yesterday, after unexpectedly strong UK retail sales data provided some rare good news on the economy, although the figures did little to alter the overall view that the outlook remained grim. Overnight data showing UK consumer confidence fell to a record low in October also reinforced the gloomy economic picture. At 08:30 am this morning rates are as follows:

• GBP/EUR 1.1703
• GBP/USD 1.5788
• GBP/AUD 1.5806
• GBP/NZD 2.0820
• GBP/CHF 1.4492
• GBP/CAD 1.6246
• GBP/ZAR 12.954
• GBP/JPY 121.21
• GBP/DKK 8.7069
• GBP/NOK 9.1633
• EUR/USD 1.3489

Pound gains on Retail Sales

Data released yesterday morning showed UK retail sales rose 0.6% last month, which was much better than expected as many analysts had predicted a fall. Despite the good data regarding consumer spending however, investors are bracing for more signs of weakness in the UK economy and these concerns have limited gains in the pound.

Many analysts expect the Pound will strugg…

Sterling falls on growth forecast and unemployment

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Thursday 17th November 2011
Good morning. The Pound hit a 1 month low against the US Dollar yesterday after the Bank of England cut its growth and inflation forecasts indicating more QE is on the way. EU debt worries pushed investors towards the safety of the dollar compounding the drop in GBP/USD rates, while the weaker Euro kept GBP/EUR rates supported just below €1.17. At 08:30am this morning rates are as follows:

• GBP/EUR 1.1681
• GBP/USD 1.5738
• GBP/AUD 1.5621
• GBP/NZD 2.0577
• GBP/CHF 1.4493
• GBP/CAD 1.6105
• GBP/ZAR 12.820
• GBP/JPY 121.06
• GBP/DKK 8.6931
• GBP/NOK 9.1129
• EUR/USD 1.3463

Bank of England cut growth forecasts for UK

The UK's economic outlook has worsened and the economy could stagnate until the middle of 2012, the BoE said yesterday . Their quarterly inflation report showed Britain on the brink of contraction and forecast that inflation would eventually fall well below target. This suggests, as many expect, that it may add to its 275 billion pound asset purchase prog…

Pound weakens ahead of BoE inflation report

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Wednesday 16th November 2011
Good morning. Sterling fell against the US Dollar yesterday as investors were worried ahead of the Bank of England's Quarterly Inflation Report, which is expected to be dovish and clear the way for more monetary easing. Against the Euro however rates remain stable due to the EU debt crisis keeping the Euro weak. At 08:30am this morning rates are as follows:

• GBP/EUR 1.1703
• GBP/USD 1.5795
• GBP/AUD 1.5583
• GBP/NZD 2.0538
• GBP/CHF 1.4501
• GBP/CAD 1.6177
• GBP/ZAR 12.8755
• GBP/JPY 121.50
• GBP/DKK 8.7075
• GBP/NOK 9.1051
• EUR/USD 1.3493

Sterling weakens ahead of BoE Inflation report

Today we have an inflation report by the Bank of England. Many in the markets expect it to be quite dovish, and pave the was for further monetary stimulus with the BoE pumping more money in the economy through Quantitative Easing. Such speculation is sterling negative as quantitative easing involves flooding the market with pounds to stimulate growth, reducing demand for the UK curr…

Pound gains vs Euro on Italy bond yields

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Tuesday 15th November 2011
Good morning. Sterling fell against the US Dollar yesterday, tracking losses in the euro against the safe-haven U.S. currency as deep-seated concerns about the euro zone's huge debt problems outweighed investor optimism over a new Italian government. This has weakened the Euro and pushed GBP/EUR rates up, but strengthened the USD pushing GBP/USD rates down. At 08:30am this morning rates are as follows:

• GBP/EUR 1.1697
• GBP/USD 1.5914
• GBP/AUD 1.5607
• GBP/NZD 2.0540
• GBP/CHF 1.4515
• GBP/CAD 1.6212
• GBP/ZAR 12.774
• GBP/JPY 122.47
• GBP/DKK 8.7062
• GBP/NOK 9.1093
• EUR/USD 1.3598

Euro weakens on Italy bond yields

At the weekend we saw a new Prime Minister appointed in Italy, and in what was seen as the first test of his leadership, Italy sold 3bn euros of 5 year bonds yesterday. However, it had to pay more to borrow the money, a rate of 6.29%, indicating continuing unease in the markets.

Late last week, the level had soared to above 7%, the rate at which Greece, …

Weekly GBP/EUR & GBP/USD and the weeks data

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Monday 14th November 2011
Good morning. As usual for a Monday, today I'm going to look at last weeks movements for our two most traded currency pairs GBP/EUR & GBP/USD. We'll also have a round up of the economic data to watch for that may affect rates for the coming week.

In this week’s Report:

• Pound/Euro rates briefly hit 8 month high
• Italy vote through austerity measures
• EU debt crisis continues to drive exchange rates
• Round up of the week’s data that may affect rates

(For currencies other then GBP, EUR and USD, contact us for a consultation)

Sterling vs. Euro;

Sterling relinquished gains against a broadly recovering euro on last Monday, but its downside was limited as investors considered the pound a safer bet versus the single currency due to political instability in Greece and Italy, which are plagued by debt problems. Rates soared last week to an 8 month high, however the gains were short lived.













Some analysts recommended selling sterling citing recent weak UK survey in…

Pound falls from 8 month high vs Euro

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Friday 11th November 2011
Good morning. The Bank of England didn't announce any further Quantitative Easing yesterday, but Sterling still dropped against the dollar and has also fallen against the Euro as worries about the euro zone drove investors to shed exposure to riskier currencies. At 08:30am this morning rates are as follows:

• GBP/EUR 1.1668
• GBP/USD 1.5930
• GBP/AUD 1.5690
• GBP/NZD 2.0483
• GBP/CHF 1.4423
• GBP/CAD 1.6243
• GBP/ZAR 12.667
• GBP/JPY 123.25
• GBP/DKK 8.6828
• GBP/NOK 9.0384
• EUR/USD 1.3645

Bank of England leave interest rates and QE on hold

As expected yesterday the Bank of England left interest rates at a record low 0.5% and opted not to pump any more money into the economy through quantitative easing. Markets will now focus on next weeks inflation report which could reveal the extent of weak economic fundamentals in the UK, and this could mean more QE in December.

Pound falls vs Euro

Despite no further QE, the Pound has fallen against most currencies including the Eur…

Sterling/Euro hits 8 month high on Italian Bonds

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Thursday 10th November 2011
Good morning.The Pound rose to an 8 month high yesterday against the Euro, after Italian bond yields rose to level of 7%, seen as unsustainable and taking the EU debt crisis to new levels. Sterling dell against the US Dollar however, as investors sought the safe haven status of the currency and by worries that the crisis in Britain's euro zone trading partners could push the UK economy back into recession. Rates at 08:30am are as follows:

• GBP/EUR 1.1753
• GBP/USD 1.5917
• GBP/AUD 1.5768
• GBP/NZD 2.0517
• GBP/CHF 1.4464
• GBP/CAD 1.6307
• GBP/ZAR 12.763
• GBP/JPY 123.47
• GBP/DKK 8.7469
• GBP/NOK 9.1246
• EUR/USD 1.3542

Italian Bond Yeilds weaken the Euro

Italy's cost of borrowing has touched a new record, a day after Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi said he would resign once budget reforms were passed. The rate has risen to 7% which is widely seen as unsustainable, and Italy would not be able to repay debts at this rate. The net result is that investors fear t…
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Wednesday 9th November 2011
Good morning. Sterling rose against the US Dollar and the Euro yesterday, after the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) said British economic growth held steady at 0.5% in the last 3 months. The news also that Italian PM Silvio Berlusconi is set to resign has weakened the Euro slightly. At 08:30am this morning rates are as follows:

• GBP/EUR 1.1670
• GBP/USD 1.6093
• GBP/AUD 1.5570
• GBP/NZD 2.0257
• GBP/CHF 1.4454
• GBP/CAD 1.6272
• GBP/ZAR 12.710
• GBP/JPY 124.81
• GBP/DKK 8.6861
• GBP/NOK 9.0421
• EUR/USD 1.3785

UK GDP at 0.5%

NIESR's forecast of 0.5% growth yesterday helped calm fears that the UK could be slipping back into recession, though concerns about a very fragile recovery remained as data showed industrial output flatlined despite a modest rise in manufacturing.

"The forecast of GDP growth staying steady through to October from NIESR has supported sterling a little," said Lee McDarby, head of dealing for corporate and insti…

Get best exchange rates to buy Euros

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Tuesday 8th November 2011
Good morning. Political uncertainty is rife in the Eurozone. We have Greece attempting to put together a coalition government, and today Italys Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi is facing a crucial vote on the budget, amid fears that Italy could be the next victim of the eurozone debt crisis. This has kept the Euro weak and helped push GBP/EUR rates and GBP/USD rates slightly higher. At 08:30am this morning rates are as follows:

• GBP/EUR 1.1667
• GBP/USD 1.6065
• GBP/AUD 1.5557
• GBP/NZD 2.0169
• GBP/CHF 1.4502
• GBP/CAD 1.6314
• GBP/ZAR 12.723
• GBP/JPY 125.25
• GBP/DKK 8.6842
• GBP/NOK 9.0225
• EUR/USD 1.3764

Political Instability in the Eurozone

Borrowing costs for Italy's government have risen significantly due to fears it may be unable to repay its huge debts. Yesterday Berlusconi dismissed reports he planned to resign and today EU finance ministers are due to meet in Brussels for further talks on the debt crisis.

Concerns over Italy are overshadowing developments …

Weekly GBP/EUR & GBP/USD and the weeks data

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Monday 7th November 2011
Good morning. As regular readers will know, every Monday I take a detailed look at what has happened to exchange rates over the last week, in particular the GBP/EUR cross and GBP/USD cross, and also a detailed outline of economic data releases I think will affect exchange rates.

In this week’s Report:

• EU debt crisis dominates G20 Summit
• Greek turmoil continues – referendum or no referendum?
• ECB in surprise interest rate cut
• Round up of the week’s data that may affect rates

(For currencies other then GBP, EUR and USD, contact us for a consultation)

Sterling vs. Euro;

There were fireworks in the currency market last week following the announcement of a Greek referendum on the latest aid package to solve its debt crisis. With a bailout package agreed, the Euro had gained strength against the pound and at the start of the week GBP/EUR was hovering in the high 1.13’s. With the news of the referendum taking place as early as December the gains did not last long, GBP/…

EU Cut interest rates, Greek farce continues

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Friday 4th November 2011
Good morning. Sterling rose against the Euro yesterday and also rose from a 2 week low against the US Dollar, helped by the European Central Bank's surprise decision to cut interest rates, which supported riskier assets. There is also uncertainty in Greece where there will now not be a referendum on the bailout, as the prime minister said he would scrap the move if the conservative opposition party voted to pass the bailout package in parliament. At 08:30am this morning rates are as follows:

• GBP/EUR 1.1587
• GBP/USD 1.5999
• GBP/AUD 1.5420
• GBP/NZD 2.0183
• GBP/CHF 1.4165
• GBP/CAD 1.6213
• GBP/ZAR 12.5804
• GBP/JPY 124.84
• GBP/DKK 8.6226
• GBP/NOK 8.9615
• EUR/USD 1.3803

ECB cut interest rates

The European Central Bank (ECB) surprised the markets yesterday when they cut eurozone interest rates to 1.25% from 1.5%. The new ECB president Mario Draghi told a news conference that growth in the eurozone was likely to remain weak. He said that Europe's financial crisi…

Eurozone in crisis ahead of Greek vote

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Thursday 3rd November 2011
Good morning. Sterling rose slightly against the US Dollar and Euro yesterday, as the Greek referendum took centre stage and weakened the Euro. Markets' focus turns to monetary policy meetings in the U.S. and Europe today, and also the G20 meeting where Europe's escalating debt crisis is set to be the main subject of discussion. At 08:30am this morning rates are as follows:

• GBP/EUR 1.1623
• GBP/USD 1.5923
• GBP/AUD 1.5551
• GBP/NZD 2.0281
• GBP/CHF 1.4121
• GBP/CAD 1.6210
• GBP/ZAR 12.8013
• GBP/JPY 124.20
• GBP/DKK 8.6462
• GBP/NOK 9.0396
• EUR/USD 1.3700

Eurozone in crisis ahead of Greek vote

The eurozone has been plunged into renewed turmoil by Greece's decision to hold a referendum on the EU's offer to bail out its stricken economy. EU leaders fear that should Greece deliver a "no" vote it may plunge the country into a disorderly default and spread financial contagion to Italy and Spain. The developments have weakened the Euro and pushed ra…

Sterling vs Euro forecast hits 1 month high

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Wednesday 2nd November 2011
Good morning. Sterling rose to a 1 month high against the Euro yesterday after Greece's decision to hold a referendum on an EU bailout. This highlighted concerns that the debt crisis is far from over and weakened the Euro. This also pushed investors towards the relative safety of the US Dollar which strengthened causing GBP/USD rates to drop. At 08:30am this morning rates are as follows:

• GBP/EUR 1.1618
• GBP/USD 1.6010
• GBP/AUD 1.5376
• GBP/NZD 2.0073
• GBP/CHF 1.4135
• GBP/CAD 1.6244
• GBP/ZAR 12.782
• GBP/JPY 124.97
• GBP/DKK 8.6430
• GBP/NOK 9.0200
• EUR/USD 1.3776

Sterling hits 1 month high vs Euro

Only a week ago there seemed to be a resolution to the debt crisis when EU leaders voted through measures to help Greece. This had strengthened the Euro and pushed GBP/EUR rates down in the low 1.13's. However it now seems that the prospect of a swift end to the euro zone's debt crisis is not as secure as first thought, after the Greek Prime Minister called …

Pound vs Euro exchange rates rise November 2011

Tuesday 1st November 2011
Good morning. Sterling has surged against the Euro, rising by nearly 3% since last week, and has now sitting in the mid €1.16's. The Pound is being driven by external factors: investor perception about the US Dollar and Euro, in addition to the intervention by the Japanese has pushed the dollar higher and strengthened Sterling. At 08:30am this morning rates are as follows:

• GBP/EUR 1.1666
• GBP/USD 1.5967
• GBP/AUD 1.5445
• GBP/NZD 2.0027
• GBP/CHF 1.4192
• GBP/CAD 1.6138
• GBP/ZAR 12.851
• GBP/JPY 124.68
• GBP/DKK 8.6811
• GBP/NOK 9.0108
• EUR/USD 1.3687

Sterling rises against Euro November 2011

The Pound has risen well against the Euro so far this week, with European markets opening lower this morning, following an announcement yesterday on a Greek referendum on the latest aid package to solve its debt crisis. Eurozone leaders had agreed a €100 billion loan to Athens and a 50% debt write-off last week, however the announcement of a referendum has cast doubt on wheth…