Showing posts from April, 2012

Weekly GBP/EUR & GBP/USD and the weeks data

Monday 30th April 2012
Good morning. As always for a Monday morning, today I'll take a look back over the last weeks events in the currency markets, and the forecast for where GBP/EUR rates may go in the next few months. It was certainly a very interesting week with the UK officially back in recession, but despite this, GBP/EUR rates are at a 22 month high, and GBP/USD rates at a 7 month high. So without further ado let's find out why!

In this week’s Report:
UK returns to recessionPound remains strong vs. Euro and US Dollar EU political uncertainty weakens EuroRound up of the week’s other data that may affect rates(For currencies other than GBP, EUR and USD, contact us for a consultation)

Sterling vs. Euro;

What could have been a very bad week indeed for the Sterling/Euro cross ended up with Sterling sitting on a 22 month high against the Euro, despite the UK going into recession.

The start of the week saw the markets waiting in anticipation for the GDP figures which were released o…

Why is Pound still high despite UK Recession?

Friday 27th April 2012
Good morning. It's been a very busy week in the currency markets. In today's post I will look at the Pound/Euro forecast and predictions for exchange rates in a week that saw the UK heading back into recession. Read my analysis of the effect EU political instability could have on exchange rates, and why the Pound is still strong despite gloomy growth figures showing we are in recession. If you need the best exchange rates, send me a free enquiry for a detailed consultation on the options available to you.

UK back in recession

The UK economy has returned to recession, after shrinking by 0.2% in the first three months of 2012. The technical definition of a recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of contraction. The economy shrank by 0.3% in the fourth quarter of 2011 so the latest figures confirm we are back in recession – just!

The numbers were a surprise to analysts including myself, as most of us expected slight growth of around 0.3%. When the actu…

Weekly Forecast GBP/EUR & GBP/USD and the weeks data

Monday 23rd April 2012
Good morning, I hope everyone had a lovely weekend. As usual for a Monday morning, today I will look back over last weeks events that pushed Sterling up to new highs against the Euro and Dollar. I will also analyse the exchange rate forecast for Euros and Dollars, in addition to what economic data is out this week that I think could affect exchange rates.

In this week’s Report:
Pound Surges through €1.22 / $1.60Positive BoE report and unemployment strengthen PoundUK GDP figures this week key to future rate movementsRound up of the week’s other data that may affect rates(For currencies other than GBP, EUR and USD, contact us for a consultation)

Sterling vs. Euro;

Euro purchasers celebrated last week after Sterling extended gains against a beleaguered Euro as investors scaled back expectations of further stimulus from the Bank of England, putting the Pound on course to allow it to rise against the euro to levels not reached since the middle of 2010.

Pound gains very wel…

Why has Pound/Euro surged above €1.22.

Thursday 19th April 2012
Good morning. Well what a day we saw in the currency markets yesterday! The Pound surged higher against all major currencies, breaking €1.22 against the Euro and $1.60 against the US Dollar. So why has the Pound gone up against the Euro? The reason was lower than expected unemployment data and general optimism surrounding the UK economy following the BoE minutes. In today's post I'll look at each event in detail and why it caused Sterling to gain.

UK unemployment much better than expected

UK unemployment has registered its first fall since last spring, according to official figures released yesterday. Unemployment fell by 35,000 to 2.65 million over the 3 months since December, and the Claimant Change was 3600 against a forecast of 7000 - so much much better than the markets had forecast.

The data was released by the Office of National Statistics and presents the number of unemployment people in the UK. There is a tendency to influence the GBP volatility. …

Sterling remains near 19 month high

Wednesday 18th April 2012
Good morning. Not an awful lot to report from the Currency Markets, as Sterling exchange rates continue their relative stability and remain fairly range bound. The Pound did however gain against the US Dollar yesterday after data showed UK inflation ticked up as expected in March.

UK Inflation strengthens the Pound

Data released yesterday showed that UK inflation rose to 3.5% last month. This caused the Pound to gain because it makes it more likely that the Bank of England will not inject more stimulus into the economy next month. Previous Quantitative Easing had weakened the Pound.

The next focus for the Pound will be later this morning, when the Bank of England MPC meeting minutes for March are released. This will show how the members voted and what was discussed.

While all nine members of the MPC are expected to have voted to keep rates on hold, the minutes will be scrutinised for any hint on whether policymakers would consider another round of quantitative eas…

Weekly Sterling/Euro forecast & predictions

Monday 16th April 2012
Good morning. Today as is usual for a Monday, I'll take a retrospective look at what happened in the currency markets last week, with a focus on the Pound/Euro exchange rate in addition to the weeks economic data I think will have an effect this week. Will the Pound/Euro rate remain above €1.20?

In this week’s Report:
Pound remains stable against EuroEU Debt problems refuse to go awayRound up of the week’s data that may affect rates(For currencies other than GBP, EUR and USD, contact us for a consultation)

Sterling vs. Euro;

Last week saw the GBP/EUR rate move to a 19 month high of 1.2160, a mid-market price we haven’t seen since September 2010 and was driven by continued negative data coming out of France, Greece and Spain.

Data and events last week in the Eurozone showed that French manufacturing production declined further, only narrowly avoiding a slip into negative territory whilst social unrest continued in Greece as more strikes at the start of the holiday …

Pound Euro rate forecast for best exchange rates

Friday 13th April 2012
Good Morning. Since my last post on Tuesday morning, markets have remained fairly flat with little happening to affect exchange rates. Indeed yesterday Sterling surged to a 19-month peak on a trade-weighted basket of currencies, highlighting the strength of the Pound at the moment.

Pound remains around the €1.21 range vs the Euro

Against the Euro, we saw rates climb initially yesterday, hitting a peak of €1.2160, which is pretty much the best we've seen in 20 months. Rates did take a slight dip however as the day progressed, falling back to the €1.21 level by the end of the day.

The main reasons for the climb early on was concerns over Spain's fiscal position, and this weakened the single currency slightly.

UK Exports fall, worrying UK policy makers

The UK's trade deficit widened in February as exports of goods to non-EU countries dropped, figures have shown. The deficit on the trade in goods and services increased to £3.4bn from a revised £2.5bn in Januar…

Weekly Sterling/Euro forecast & predictions

Tuesday 10th April 2012
Good morning. I hope everybody enjoyed the Bank Holiday weekend. In today's report I'll take stock of the huge gains seen in GBP/EUR rates last week, and how to take advantage of them even if your requirement is some way off.

In this week’s Report:
Pound/Euro rates surge into the €1.21’sBest way to fix the record Euro rate for the futureRound up of the week’s data that may affect ratesSterling vs. Euro;

After the previous week’s constant bad news about the UK economy we would have been led to believe that the national papers had their printers on standby, ready to run off huge spreads about the UK heading back into recession and how we were all doomed.

However last week couldn’t have started any differently with the British Chamber of Commerce contradicting the previous week’s expectations and saying that they felt the first quarter of 2012 had actually been more positive than most thought, and that the UK could avoid a “double-dip” recession.

This view set t…

Pound Euro rates hit €1.21 and close to 20 month high

Thursday 5th April 2012
Good morning. Why have Pound/Euro rates gone up April 2012? As is often the case, a day can make a big difference in the currency markets, and yesterday was no exception. In my most recent post I pointed out rates had dipped below €1.20, however throughout the day yesterday the GBP/EUR rate surged and touched €1.21 - this is nigh on the best rates we have seen to buy Euros for 20 months. Today I will look at the reasons why.

Pound/Euro rate forecast - surges to €1.21

The Pound gained well throughout trading yesterday, as the chart shows. Much better than forecast UK services sector survey eased UK recession fears, and they also highlighted a contrast with a struggling euro zone economy. As a result we saw Pound/Euro rates push up by 1% - a huge gain for one days trading.

A disappointing auction of Spanish government bonds also weighed on the Euro, as worries grew about Spain's high debt levels and weak economy. Europe's economic prospects look very poor ind…

Pound dips below €1.20 / $1.60 - Interest Rates today

Wednesday 4th April 2012
Good morning. As I have been warning in recent weeks, the levels of €1.20 on the Euro and $1.60 on the US Dollar may not last forever, and indeed yesterday so the Pound fall slightly against both currencies, however upbeat manufacturing and construction data gave some support which limited the drops, as the better than expected data tempered concerns over a lack of growth in Britain's economy.

ECB Interest Rate decision; how could it affect GBP/EUR exchange rates?

Later today we will see the latest EU Central bank decision on whether they will make any changes to the base rate of interest. My forecast is that no monetary policy changes are expected from the European Central bank today. The same is true of the majority of the experts, with the general consensus that it is highly unlikely for the ECB to change interest rates.

45 minutes after the decision however, we have a press conference with ECB president Mario Draghi. In this he gives his opinions on the cu…

Weekly GBP/EUR forecast, and the weeks data

Monday 2nd April 2012
Good morning. As always for a Monday morning, today I'll take a detailed look at Pound/Euro rate movements over the last week, forecasts for exchange rates in the coming months, and how economic data releases this week may affect exchange rates.

In this week’s Report:
UK Could be heading back into recessionEU debt crisis keeps GBP/EUR supportedRound up of the week’s data that may affect rates(For currencies other than GBP, EUR and USD, contact us for a consultation)

Sterling vs. Euro;

It was an interesting week for Sterling/Euro, in which we saw a raft of very poor UK data releases, but despite this, rates remained relatively stable and within the €1.19 to €1.20 range we have seen over the last few weeks. In this week’s GBP/EUR report we’ll take a look at the UK economy and why the Pound remains supported against the beleaguered single currency.

In a week in which the UK was bathed in unbroken sunshine, I’m afraid the sun was not shining on the UK economy. We had a…