Showing posts from May, 2012

Spanish bailout fears drive Exchange Rates

Thursday 31st May 2012
Good morning. So far the week had been fairly flat, hence the lack of updates since Monday morning. Pound/Euro rates had been stuck at €1.25 and Pound/Dollar rates range bound in the $1.56 to $1.57 range. This all changed yesterday however and we saw market movement on the back of developments from Spain...

Spain concerns spook markets

Further concern in the Eurozone has caused the Euro to drop further, boosting GBP/EUR rates slightly. Concerns grew yesterday that Spain may be forced to seek a bailout, which caused the Euro to plummet yet again. It’s all to do with Bond yields; they are trading above 6.5%, very close indeed to the 7% level beyond which borrowing costs are deemed unsustainable over the long-term.

A rate consistently above 7% is considered to be unsustainably high and an indication that markets think a country will be unable to pay its debts; Greece, Portugal and the Republic of Ireland were at that level when they received international bailouts.


Weekly GBP/EUR forecast, and the weeks data

Monday 28th May 2012
Good morning. The volatility in the currency markets continues, with wild swings in the exchange rate on a daily basis. On Friday alone the GBP/EUR rate fluctuated from 1.2430 to 1.2530 within 4 hours. Today as usual for a Monday I will look back over what has affected the exchange rate in the last week, and where rates may go in the coming weeks and months.

In this week’s Report:
Greek worries continue to weaken EuroBoE & IMF warn on UK GrowthUSD strengthens due to its safe haven statusRound up of the week’s other data that may affect rates(For currencies other than GBP, EUR and USD, contact us for a consultation)

Sterling vs. Euro;

Last week we saw the pound falling off the top of a three and a half year high against the euro. During the middle of the week the pound slumped against a basket of currencies, with the Bank of England (BoE) and International Monetary Fund (IMF) concerned over growth within the UK. However towards the end of the week the pound had mad…

Pound/Euro forecast: recovers on Greek worries

24th May 2012
Good morning. It’s been yet another volatile week for Sterling/Euro exchange rates. Early in the week the Pound weakened off, falling into the €1.23’s. This was due to concerns by both the Bank of England and IMF on growth, increasing the chance of further Quantitative Easing. The fall in rates was halted yesterday however, when the Euro weakened again significantly over Greek Euro exit fears, pushing rates back close to €1.25.

In today’s post I’ll look at these events in detail and analyse what may cause Pound Euro rates will go up or down in the coming months.

Pound/Euro rates gain on Greek concerns

GBP/EUR rates surged yesterday after a report saying that the Greek government may be making preparations for leaving the euro. Also weakening the single currency was Germany’s central bank saying that the developments in Greece were "highly alarming".

"Greece is threatening not to implement the agreed reforms and consolidation measures," the Bundesbank said …

Weekly GBP/EUR forecast, and the weeks data

Monday 21st May 2012
Good morning. As regular readers will know, on Mondays I like to take a retrospective look at the previous week in the currency markets, analyse what has been moving exchange rates, and look at what the Pound Sterling forecast to Euros may be going forwards.

In this week’s Report:Pound/Euro hits new 3.5 year high before droppingBank of England warns on UK economy and EU threatGreek exit spooks marketsRound up of the week’s other data that may affect rates(For currencies other than GBP, EUR and USD, contact us for a consultation)

Sterling vs. Euro;

Last week was an exciting one for the GBP/EUR cross seeing a fresh three and a half year high which was quickly followed by a slump as sterling weakened against the single currency. There are a number of reasons for last week’s erratic market movements; below the graph is a summary of the key factors that have driven rates recently.

EU Debt/Greece worries

The troubles in Greece are well documented, the sheer uncertainty hangin…

Pound/Euro drops after dire BoE report - forecast

Thursday 17th May 2012
Good morning. The volatility continues in the currency markets, with the EU debt crisis and Greece’s problems continuing to drive exchange rates. Earlier in the week we hit new highs of €1.2580 against the Euro, however as is often the case, the gains were short lived. Sterling has now started to weaken following grim growth forecasts by the Bank of England. So in today’s posts we’ll look in detail at:The EU debt crisis situation; what will happen next?
What would happen if Greece leaves the Euro?Forecasts for Pound/Euro going up in 2012
Forecasts for Pound/Euro going down in 2012 I’ll then analyse the UK’s economic prospects and look at the arguments for where Sterling/Euro rates could move throughout the remainder of 2012. Let's start with the obvious - the situation in Greece....

Greek worries weaken the Euro pushing GBP/EUR rates higher.

The failure of Greece to form a government has plunged its membership of the Euro into doubt this week, and is the reason t…

Weekly GBP/EUR forecast, and the weeks data

14th May 2012
Good morning. Well, last week was one of the busiest I have seen on the trading floor for some time. With Euro weakness pushing rates to €1.25, many of my clients were keen to fix rates for both buying and selling Euros with a forward contract, due to the uncertainty over the future movements of the GBP/EUR rate.

In today's report as always for a Monday morning, I'll review last weeks movements, and take a look at what might happen to the rate this week. If you are looking for the best exchange rates for a transfer of £5k+, get in touch today to find out more about our service.

In this week’s Report:Pound/Euro rates hit 3.5 year highEU political uncertainty still driving exchange ratesRound up of the week’s other data that may affect ratesSterling vs. Euro;

Last week again saw the Euro weakening significantly after further uncertainty within the Euro zone, along with some positive data being released from the UK surrounding decisions made by the Bank of England, whic…

Pound/Euro hits 3 year high above €1.24 - why?

Tuesday 9th May 2012
Good morning. Pound/Euro rates are at a 3 year high after the weekends French, Italian and Greek elections caused significant political uncertainty, weakening the Euro and pushing rates to €1.24+; the best buying levels in 3 years, amid widespread discontent with the austerity drive.

In today's post I will have a detailed look at the effect of the elections on the Pound/Euro exchange rate, and the forecast for where Sterling/Euro rates may go in the coming months.

Elections in Europe weaken Euro significantly

Over the weekend we saw elections in France, Italy and Greece. The results plunged the Eurozone into a fresh crisis, as the new and potential governments have cast doubt on the durability of austerity plans aimed at tackling the euro zone debt crisis. When UK markets opened this morning, the GBP/EUR rate surged to a 3 year high. Let's have a detailed look at each country in turn, and why the rate has gone up.

French Elections/effect on exchange rates

Mr Ho…

Weekly Sterling/Euro forecast & predictions

Tuesday 8th May 2012
Good morning. Markets in the UK re-open today after the Bank Holiday break. As is usual for the first trading day of the week, this morning I will take a look back at market movements over the last 7 days, the effect on exchange rates, and the forecast for where rates may go throughout 2012.

In this week’s Report:EU instability keeps GBP/EUR at 22 month highSterling remains supported due to safe haven flows Round up of the week’s other data that may affect rates(For currencies other than GBP & EUR contact us for a consultation)

Sterling vs. Euro;

Last week saw continued volatility within the Eurozone, which has continued to weaken the Euro. Earlier in the week saw the Pound fall with poor economic data releases as I outlined in my last post; however it was soon to recover to see the GBP/EUR cross trading at a 22 month high. One of the hardest questions to answer is what is expected of the Euro for the coming months?

Eurozone weakness

Let's start with what has h…

2012 forecast: Pound/Euro recovers to 22 month high

Thursday 3rd May 2012
Good morning. A fairly volatile week so far! The Pound fell earlier in the week when economic data was quite poor, signalling all is not rosy with the UK economy. However during trading yesterday, Sterling recovered well to hit a 22 month high against the Euro, and a 32 month high against a basket of major currencies.

In today’s post I’ll have a look at the latest data in detail, how it has affected exchange rates, and how the coming days data could have an effect on the cost of your currency conversion.

Pound falls earlier in the week

As stated above, the Pound fell back from the record highs we had seen recently, after some quite poor data was released. We had a manufacturing survey that highlighted the fragility of the UK economy, and also the risk that the strong Pound may dent exports also had an effect on the Pounds value.

The pound's losses were quite short lived and limited though, as the currency is still seen as the best of a bad bunch. The Euro is havin…