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Showing posts from July, 2012

Weekly Pound/Euro & Pound/Dollar forecast

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Monday 30th July 2012 Good morning. It's a new week, and as regular readers will know, it's when I take a detailed look back over the Sterling/Euro and Sterling/Dollar exchange rate, and take a look at whether rates will go up or down in the coming weeks. So, what's been happening?
GDP figures show recession worse than thought ECB will do ‘whatever it takes’ to save Euro Pound/Dollar hits 5 week high, Pound/Euro in decline Round up of the week’s other data that may affect rates (For currencies other than GBP, EUR and USD, contact us for a consultation)
Sterling vs. Euro;

Last week saw minor retracements of the Euro’s relative weakness against the pound. The GBP/EUR cross fell from Tuesday’s high of 1.2856 finding support around the 1.27 level. In this week’s report we consider the announcements that generated these movements.










Last week saw Moody’s deliver a blow to the stronger Euro-economies by placing Germany, Luxemburg and the Netherlands’ AAA credit-ratings on negative watc…

Pound falls from highs after GDP figures

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Thursday 25th July 2012
Good morning everybody. The Pound has dipped against the Euro. At the beginning of the week Sterling was riding high, and at the time I warned that it may not be the case rates will remain at those levels and we could be in for a drop. Indeed the pound fell quite sharply against the Euro and other currencies, after data showed the British economy contracted by more than three times the rate it was expected to in the second quarter, increasing the prospect of more monetary easing by the Bank of England.

UK recession worsens after 0.7% GDP fall

















After the figures were released, most news websites and organisations took a very political slant to the news, either hailing the figures as ‘Conservatives Ruin Economy’ or ‘Labour ruined the economy and Conservatives try to fix it' depending on which newspaper you read and their political affiliation. I’m not going to bother with any of that here; all I aim to do is analyse what it means for exchange rates, and what dire…

Pound/Euro exchange rate forecast/outlook

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Monday 23rd July 2012
Good morning. It appears the jet stream has shifted to bring some warm weather to the UK at long last, however one thing that has not shifted is the resilience of the UK pound against the Euro, which surged to new 4 year highs last week, touching €1.2870 at one point. In today's report I will give a detailed overview of the Sterling/Euro exchange rate forecast, and analyse whether rates will get higher or not.


Sterling vs. Euro;

Below is a graph spanning the last four years showing the journey that sterling has gone on to reach the point we are at today.












In the past nine months, sterling has strengthened by 12% against the Euro and the culmination of this movement was felt last Friday when the mid-market price hit €1.2858. This meant that we were back at levels not seen since the middle of 2008, which was just before the pound’s decline to near parity with the Euro.

So what has caused the rise in rates?

There has been a constant threat of collapse in the Euro zone …

Pound/Euro remains strong despite rate cut possibility

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Thursday 19th July 2012
Good morning. Sterling/Euro rates remain supported well above the €1.27 level. This was despite some poor data from the UK; the number of people claiming unemployment rose more than forecast, and yesterday’s Bank of England minutes were pretty bearish, hinting at interest rate cuts to come for the UK. The pound shrugged this off and rates quickly recovered back against the Euro and other currencies. Today I’ll give an outline of recent data, and what it may mean for the future of Pound/Euro exchange rates.

Bank of England Minutes

Yesterday we saw the latest minutes from the Bank of England where they decided to pump another £50 billion into the economy. It was prompted by fears that the UK economy will see little growth this year. As I already reported though, the extra stimulus didn’t really have much of an effect on the Pound as it was so widely forecast and therefore already priced into the rates.

The MPC minutes also said that the "near-term outlook for GD…

Weekly GBP/EUR & GBP/USD and the weeks data

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Monday 16th July 2012
Good morning. The volatility continues in the Eurozone, and markets have reacted by dumping the single currency. This pushed GBP/EUR rates to new highs last week above the €1.27 level. As always for a Monday morning, today I will take a detailed look at what happened last week, what data may affect rates this week, and the different ways you can protect yourself against adverse exchange rate movements, and achieve the best exchange rates.

In this week’s report:Pound/Euro hit’s new highs of €1.27Sterling/Dollar tumbles to $1.54UK Could cut interest rates, weakening PoundWeekly market data that could affect ratesPound/Euro breaks through €1.27

Sterling/Euro rates fared very well last week, pushing through the €1.27 several times, only to drop back away. Most recently on Friday, Moody's cut Italy's credit rating, sending the country's borrowing costs higher and putting further pressure on its struggling economy. The effect was further weakening of the sing…

Pound/Euro rates hit €1.27, best in nearly 4 years

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Thursday 12th July 2012
Good morning. Today I’ll give you all a quick mid-week update on what has been happening with exchange rates. We have seen the Euro continue to weaken off, with rates briefly breaking through the €1.27 level – the best in nearly 4 years! In today’s post I will look at why rates have gone up, what events could make rates continue to rise, and other scenarios that may result in rates dropping back away.

Nobody can predict which way rates will go, but hopefully you will find my outlook useful. What I aim to do is explain in simply terms why the rate has moved where it has, and what could happen to push rates up or down in the coming weeks and months. With my insight and knowledge, you can gain a better understanding of the currency forecast to help you decide when to fix your exchange rate.

Pound/Euro rates hit €1.27, best in nearly 4 years

The Pound rose yesterday to the best in nearly 4 years against the Euro. The reasons for the gains were continuing doubts about t…

Weekly Pound/Euro forecast report. Rates are looking good!

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Monday 9th July 2012
Good morning everybody. Well, what a difference a week makes - I've been on holiday in Greece for a week, and much has happened in my absence. The Bank of England announced more Quantitative Easing as expected, but surprisingly it had no effect on the market. The interest rate cut in the EU however was a surprise, and has pushed GBP/EUR rates to new 3.5 year highs of €1.26+. I have much to catch up on, so in today's post I'll give a quick overview of what has happened while I've been away.
UK announce an additional £50bn of Quantitative EasingEuro suffers its worst week in a yearDollar gains against the pound in light of jobless claims figuresRound up of the week’s other data that may affect ratesSterling vs. Euro;

Last week saw a very flat start to week for the GBP/EUR cross with no significant movement in the rates. The market awaited the Bank of England’s decision on whether more Quantitative Easing (QE) will be required and the European Central B…