Showing posts from November, 2012

Pound/Euro forecast; rates could drop further

Monday 26th November 2012 Good morning. The Pound/Euro exchange rate fell quite a bit last week, and the forecast is for this to continue. This is partly due to events in Europe, but also due to the fact the Bank of England governor is speaking again this week, and could well talk the Pound down further. So what have I got for you in today's post? In this week’s Report:  Pound/Euro rates in decline last week Bank of England speech this week could weaken Pound further EU fails to resolve Greek/EU debt issues Round up of the week’s other data that may affect rates Sterling vs. Euro; 
Pound/Euro rates last week were largely dominated by discussions between the IMF and EU Finance Ministers, over a €44 billion Greek bailout. The single currency strengthened considerably, due to the optimism of the aforementioned plan, but was clouded mid-week by continued disagreements between the two deciding factions. As you can see by the chart below, rates have been in decline now for a few weeks. 


Pound/Euro rates falling. December forecast

Wednesday 21st November 2012  Good morning. In today’s post I’m going to look at the developments so far this week that have affected exchange rates, including the Bank of England minutes, UK public sector borrowing, The latest on the Greek bailout, and the downgrading of Frances Credit rating. Of course I will also take a view on how this could affect exchange rates in the coming weeks and months. Let’s start in the UK. 
Bank of England minutes 
This morning the Bank of England released the minutes from the latest decision to hold off any more Quantitative Easing (QE) and leave interest rates on hold.
There were no real surprises; only one member voted for QE, so the vote was split 8-1. 
This indicates there is less chance of further stimulus in December, however many think it’s only a matter of time before more funds are needed, so I think depending on economic figures, we could see further QE in January. If so, then expect the Pound to weaken if it starts to look more likely stimulus w…

Pound/Euro exchange rate forecast outlook

Monday 19th November 2012
Good morning. Another Monday morning, so let's take a retrospective look at what happened with exchange rates this week. In today's post I'll also look at some of the tools you can use to protect against exchange rates moving against you.

In this week’s Report: 

Bank of England warns of triple dip recessionGreek bailout casts shadow over Eurozone US Dollar strengthens Round up of the week’s other data that may affect rates 
Sterling vs. Euro; 

After a crazy week on Sterling/Euro last week, many people will be looking at this week a little unsure as to how their own requirements will play out. Many thought sterling would start to stretch its legs against the single currency as it started the week by pushing up to a 6 week high on the cross by Tuesday. 

This bullish run for the pound was, as often is these days, more of a dash than a marathon as BoE Governor Mervyn King poured his customary glass of icy water over the hopes of strong UK economic growth. B…

Pound/Euro rates fall on BoE Inflation report. Forecast.

Wednesday 14th November 2012  Good afternoon everybody. It’s been quite a mixed week so far in the currency markets, with big swings in the Pound/Euro rate along with other currencies. As the week started, Sterling was at a 6 week high against the Euro, and things were looking very good for Euro buyers. As is often the case with sharp upward spikes however, it was not to last. By Wednesday, a dire report from the Bank of England took the wind out of the Pounds sails, and we saw GBP/EUR rates drop by over a point.
In today’s report I’m going to take a look at what caused the Pound to fall, and what the events in the EU may mean for rates going forward.

Sterling/Euro highs were not to last 

Sterling hit its best rates against the Euro in 6 weeks recently after the Bank of England left interest rates and the size of its bond-buying programme unchanged, as outlined in my last post. The decision had been broadly expected by most analysts after a great run of UK data.

However the gains were n…

Pound/Euro exchange rate forecast November 2012

Monday 12th November 2012
Good morning everyone. As usual for a Monday, today I'm going to take stock of last weeks movement in exchange rates, look at why GBP/EUR rates have climbed. In addition I will analyse what may happen in the coming weeks to affect the rate, and of course as usual give you a detailed breakdown of economic data releases that I think will affect exchange rates this week.

In this week’s Report: 
 Pound/Euro rates hit 5 week highEurozone growth forecasts could affect UK  Round up of the week’s other data that may affect rates  Sterling vs. Euro; 

Pound/Euro rates had a very good run indeed last week, with Sterling hitting a 5 week high against the Euro. In this report we will look at the reasons rates have increased, and look at what the coming weeks and months may hold for the Sterling/Euro cross.

First things first; Why have Pound/Euro rates gone up?

The main reason for the gains was the fact the Bank of England left interest rates on hold, and the size of it…

US Election effect on exchange rates / GBPEUR hits new high

Wednesday 7th Novmeber 2012
Good afternoon everybody. Things have moved around in the currency markets quite a bit today. We've had the US election dramatically affect the value of the US Dollar and riskier currencies. We have also seen Pound/Euro rates hit a new one month high due to poor UK data. In my post today I'll take a look at the election, then the Pound/Euro situation. I'll also have a quick look at Thursdays central bank decisions and how this might affect exchange rates going forwards.

US Election – effect on exchange rates

It dominated the news today, so I’m sure you all know that Barack Obama has won a second term as president of the United States. There are many sources where you can read about the election, so here today I will only focus on the effect it has had on exchange rates.

 Effectively, it has weakened the US Dollar significantly, and pushed rates up above $1.60 before falling back away. The reason the USD weakened is the fact is was sold off fairly…

Pound/Euro exchange rates best in a month

Monday 5th November 2012
Good morning. Pound/Euro rates have recovered well over the last few weeks, hitting their best in over a month. This is mainly due to a raft of better than expected economic data from the UK, lessening the chances of further Quantitative Easing and giving the Pound a boost. In today's report I'll take a look at what the forecast is for Sterling/Euro rates, and what data to look out for this week that could affect exchange rates.

In this week’s Report:

•    Pound/Euro rates hit one-month high
•    Pound performs well against a basket of currencies
•    Round up of the week’s other data that may affect rates

Sterling vs. Euro;

Last week the pound rosewell  against the euro, hitting its highest levels since the beginning of October, breaking through the 1.25 level on Friday before finishing down around 1.2480 where we remain this morning. As well as the recent better than forecast GDP data showing the UK is no longer in a recession, we have seen mortgage, ret…