GBP/EUR & GBP/USD forecast 2012/2013
Thursday 13th December 2012
Good afternoon everybody. In this afternoon’s post I’m going to take a detailed look at Pound/Euro rates, and the forecast for where rates may go in 2012 and 2013. I will also have a look Sterling/Dollar rates.
I will also run over some of the options and contract types I can offer for any currency requirement you may have in the next 2 years, to help you get the best exchange rates and make the most of your currency.
Pound/Euro stable in the mid €1.23’s
The Sterling/Euro exchange rate has fallen slightly in recent weeks, but still remains firmly above the 1.20 mark. The reason for the fall is twofold, and will be familiar to regular readers as it’s been the main driver of exchange rates all year!
Firstly we have the progress made in Europe, which the markets have taken to be positive. This has seen the Euro gain some strength and thus become more expensive to purchase. We also have the threat of the UK’s credit rating being downgraded, which has taken some steam out of the Pound.
Some in the market are now saying that the euro could gain further support after the European Union agreed to make the European Central Bank the bloc's banking supervisor. This is positive news for the Eurozone, and so could pull rates down further. Of course things are so volatile in the Eurozone, it’s impossible to predict what will happen in the coming weeks. You can read about the new Bank rules here.
What UK news is affecting the Pound?
On the UK side, data has shown that British factory orders rose this month, although there was little reaction in the currency markets with the Pound remaining largely unaffected. Of more important to Sterling at the moment are growth prospects and credit ratings.
In his recent autumn statement, George Osborne downgraded growth forecasts and said the country will miss debt-cutting goals. This has increased concerns the UK will lose its prized AAA credit rating. Only the UK and Germany retain good credit ratings from all major agencies. This could of course weigh on the Pound should we be downgraded.
In my opinion however moves in the Pound/Euro rate will be driven more by developments in the euro zone in coming months rather than what will happen in the UK. Markets are waiting to see whether Spain will apply for aid, triggering the European Central Bank's bond-buying scheme that is seen as providing a backstop to peripheral debt markets.
So which way will Pound/Euro rates go now?
In a nutshell, if things remain positive in Euros, GBP/EUR rates could fall. Should there be any unexpected deterioration of the situation in any of the troubled EU countries such as Spain, Italy, Portugal or Greece, then we could see renewed weakness in the Euro, causing rates to climb again.
Regardless of whether you are buying or selling Euros, simply sitting back and hoping the market will move in your direction invariably means you are simply chasing the market using hope as your only economic tool. A wiser strategy would be to use tools such as Stop Loss and Limit orders, so you can take control of your requirement and allow you to budget effectively for any requirement you may have in the coming months.
If you would like a free consultation on the types of contract we offer such as Stop Limit orders, then get in touch with me today. I can discuss your requirements, let you know all your options and give you my view on the current market forecasts. In this way you can make an informed decision on what to do and when to buy your currency. Simply leaving things to chance could cost you dearly.
Pound Dollar remains near 6 week high vs. US Dollar
The Pound has recently been at a 6 month high vs. the US Dollar, however fell a little today during trading. Sterling pulled back somewhat because investors took some profits after the news that the FED has announced a new round of monetary stimulus, which was expected.
Moving Forwards, rates I think will now remain above the $1.60 mark against the Dollar for the rest of the year, especially if we see hints that the Bank of England wills hold off from signalling further Quantitative Easing in the UK.
If you need to buy US Dollars at the best exchange rates, there are 2 things you should consider. Firstly, you can fix the rate now while it’s so good, using either a Spot of Forward contract. A spot contract needs to be settled in full within 2 working days of booking your rate. A Forward contract allows you to fix the current rate for up to 2 years, and only lodge 10% of the total to be converted. The remaining 90% becomes due when you want to have your US Dollars transferred.
A second option is if you think the rate will rise further. You can place a ‘Stop Loss’ order at a level slightly below the current rate. This means if the market drops, your currency is secured at that rate, protecting you from a further decline, and giving you a worst case scenario. The advantage of a Stop Loss is that if the market continues to rise, you can continue to take advantage of any gains, raising your stop level in line with market movements.