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Showing posts from December, 2013

Exchange rates forecast 2014 - a year in review

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Monday 30th December 2013 
Welcome back, and I hope everyone had a lovely Christmas! Pound/Euro rates have fallen a little today, from €1.20 down to €1.1940 at the time of writing. 

For something a little different, in today’s post I am going to take a retrospective look at what has happened with key currency pairs throughout 2013, including Pound/Euro. I will explain what has happened with exchange rates and what caused them to move.

I will also take a view on what the exchange rate forecast is for 2014, so anyone with a currency requirement in the next 12 months should find this useful. 

Remember I don't just write about the markets - I am a senior currency broker for one of the UK's leading currency brokerages, and can help you achieve exchange rates up to 5% better than banks will offer you, potentially saving you thousands of Pounds. I have 8 years experience in the industry, so if you need to the best exchange rates, take advantage of my knowledge by getting in touch for a …

Pound remains strong in the run up to Christmas

Friday 20th December 2014 
This will be my last post for a week, and I’ll be back in action on Monday the 30th of December. 

With regards to exchange rates, Sterling remains strong after figures showed the UK economy is growing faster than previously estimated. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said gross domestic product was up 0.8%; however it revised its growth figures for earlier quarters. 

This means the estimated annual growth rate has now risen from 1.5% to 1.9%, a revision that has surprised economists. Sterling currently sits at €1.1955 vs the Euro and $1.6377 vs the US Dollar. 

In other UK economic news, ONS data showed that Britain's current account deficit - the difference between the money received from exports and imports - widened sharply in the third quarter to £20.7bn, up from £6.2bn in the second quarter. This countered any gains the growth figures would have caused, and so there has not been much volatility in exchange rates. 

So that’s it from me for a while.…

Unemployment falls, Pound rises...

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Wednesday 18th December 2013 
In my last post I outlined the data this week that I thought would have an impact on exchange rates. I pointed out that today (Wednesday) would likely cause changes in currency rates due to some key data including Unemployment and the latest Bank of England (BoE) minutes. Unemployment was lower than expected pushing the Pound higher, but comments from the Bank of England threaten to put the brakes on the Pounds rise. In today’s post I’m going to take a detailed look at what has happened, and what it means for the exchange rate forecast.

UK unemployment falls, Sterling rises. 

The UK unemployment rate has fallen to its lowest level since 2009, official figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed this morning. The market expected a figure of 7.6%, however the actual number came in at 7.4%; the lowest rate since February 2009. As a result, the Pound has risen against the Euro by 1 cent to €1.1915, and also by a cent against the US Dollar to $1…

This will be an important week for Sterling...

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Monday 16th December 2013
Good afternoon. It's been a quiet start to the week, and since my last post Pound/Euro rates remain in the mid €1.18's, and Pound/Dollar rates around $1.63. This week will be key to whether rates continue dropping as they have in the last week, or resume the trend of the last few months which has seen the Pound rise against other currencies.

Sterling has been one of the currency market's surprises since the summer, having risen consistently over the last 6 months. As I've been explaining over the last few weeks, really impressive economic data has strengthened the Pound, and it's also been helped by the view that interest rates may rise earlier than previously expected. 

This week in my view will be key to the direction Sterling takes over the next month, as we have some key economic data releases including inflation data on Tuesday, and minutes from the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee and jobless data on Wednesday, followed …

Why has Sterling fallen into the €1.18's? Will it recover?

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Wednesday 11th December 2013 
Sterling has been falling today, and exchange rates have dropped further from recent highs. In today’s post I’m going to examine the reasons why the Pound has dropped, and also give my views on where rates may head for the remainder of 2013. If you need to buy or sell currency in the near future, you're in the right place, so read on...

On Tuesday we actually saw rates rise slightly on the back of Bank of England governor Mark Carney’s comments on the economy, but the gains were short lived, and today rates have steadily dropped. So before we look at the reasons for today’s fall, let’s examine what happened yesterday. 

Pound rises on Tuesday, but not for long... 

The Pound hit a 2.5 year high against the US Dollar and also rose against the Euro yesterday, after upbeat comments from the Bank of England, and also strong house price data. These were taken as signs that interest rates in the UK could rise sooner than previously thought. Higher interest rates…

What might affect exchange rates this week?

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Monday 9th December 2013 
Today has been relatively quiet, and not much has changed since my last post in which I outlined why Pound/Euro rates had fallen below €1.20. On Friday last week we did see the Pound/Euro rate slip back a little further, and today GBP/EUR rates are stable in the mid €1.19’s, and Pound/Dollar rates just below $1.64. Later today we have a speech by the Bank of England governor Mark Carney and it will be interesting to see how his comments affect the Pound. 

As the market is quite stable, today I am going to list the week’s economic data releases that I think will have an effect on exchange rates. 

Are you interested to know how the below data could affect your currency requirement? Do you have an upcoming transfer to make? Looking for the best exchange rates? Want to discuss what is happening with exchange rates? Would like to know whether to fix a rate now or hold off?
Make a free enquiry with me today and have a free consultation. I can discuss your requirement i…

Why has Pound/Euro dropped back below €1.20?

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Thursday 5th December 2013 
In my recent post I outlined the week’s economic data that I thought would affect exchange rates. I had highlighted today (Thursday) as the most important day of the week for Pound/Euro rates, and indeed that has been the case as the recent highs have evaporated and rates are back below €1.20 again. So in today’s report: 

Why have Pound/Euro rates dropped below €1.20 Will rates go back up or drop further? Effect of Budget statement on exchange rates Central Bank Decisions from UK and Europe US economy grows faster than thought
Why have Pound/Euro rates dropped below €1.20? 

Today we saw rates drop from the recent highs of €1.21 down below €1.20 again, and this was due to comments made by the European Central Bank president. 

Before I touch on that, let’s look at the decisions from the Central Banks. 

The Bank of England has kept interest rates at a record low of 0.5%, despite signs that the UK economy is improving. The European Central Bank (ECB) also has kept it…

Economic Data and its affect on exchange rates

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Tuesday 3rd December 2013 
This morning we saw unemployment numbers from Spain. Despite the market believing an extra 50,000 unemployed people, in fact there were only 2500. This was much better than expected and so strengthened the Euro, bringing GBP/EUR rates lower.

The dip was short lived however, when the UK fired off its Purchasing Managers construction data. This is important as it's a leading indicator of economic health. The number impressed and was better than forecast, and as the chart shows, the dip was reversed and Pound/Euro rates climbed back to €1.21.



This clearly illustrates how important economic data is, and how it can affect exchange rates. So below I have listed the remaining data due this week, and my thoughts on how it could affect your currency requirement.

This week’s economic data that could affect exchange rates. 

Tuesday 3rd December

Today’s main data has already been released as outlined above. The rest of today is quiet, with only some minor economic optimi…

Sterling hits €1.21 but falls back away....

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Monday 2nd December 2013 
Good afternoon. Well in my post late on Friday I highlighted the spike in Pound/Euro rates. This actually continued over the weekend, and when I arrived on the trading floor at 08:00am this morning mid-market levels were at an astonishing €1.2100, which is a remarkable run for this currency pair. The question is, will it last...?

Pound/Euro sustained above €1.20, for now...

As you can see from the chart showing todays movements, the market opened at €1.21. The levels were not to be sustained for long however, and throughout the day we saw the Pounds gains becoming eroded, and exchange rates have slipped away throughout the day. 



The market is still above the €1.20 mark however. The fact it has broken through this level has surprised many in the market, myself included, who did not expect rates to break €1.20 this year. I did however state in a recent post  that while I didn’t expect it to break through €1.20, if it did it would likely continue rising significant…