Monday 17th March 2014
Good afternoon everybody. The UK has been basking in unseasonable sunshine over the weekend, however Sterling has remained firmly in the shade. We have seen the Pound drop further today against the Euro and other currencies, ahead of what I think will be a key week for UK economic data releases, and therefore Sterling exchange rates.
Pound/Euro has fallen to 1.1940. Pound/Dollar remains in the mid $1.66’s. In today’s report I am going to run over the week’s economic data and how it might affect exchange rates.
There are lots of very important releases this week that will affect the Pound, including a Bank of England report, the latest Unemployment data, and George Osborne's budget just to name a few.
- Will the Pound fall further?
- Could it bounce back?
- How to know when to fix a rate?
- Do you want to get the best exchange rates?
The below data will determine the answers to these questions, so read on to find out more about how this week could affect you getting the best foreign exchange currency rates.
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This weeks economic data releases that could affect exchange rates
Monday 17th March 2014
Today has been relatively quiet data wise, with only some EU inflation data released earlier this morning. The numbers were not that different to the forecast, and so didn’t affect GBP/EUR rates too much.
Tuesday 18th March 2014
GBP/EUR could be affected by the EU ZEW survey at 10am. Basically this measures economic sentiment and how investors see the economy. A high reading could strengthen the Euro and pull GBP/EUR rates lower.
GBP/USD could also be choppy today, as we have a raft of inflation data from the USA at lunchtime.
At 17:45pm there is a speech by the Bank of England governor Mark Carney. This could be very important. It’s impossible to know whether he will be upbeat and positive about the economy, but if he is it could cause the Pound to rise. Many think they he wants the Pound lower however, in order to help UK exports. So he may use this opportunity to talk the Pound down which would cause exchange rates to fall also.
Wednesday 19th March 2014
The most important day of the week for the Pound in my opinion. Firstly we have all the latest unemployment figures. I expect the figure to be at 7.2%. Lower than this would cause the Pound to rise, and vice versa.
Along with unemployment we also have the latest BoE minutes which will show what was discussed and how they voted in their recent decision to hold interest rates. The key will be whether this report hints at a rate cut early next year or not, and this report is likely to affect Sterling one way or the other.
At 12:30pm chancellor George Osborne delivers the budget report, so just how could the budget affect exchange rates? The last few haven’t really affected the value of the Pound at all, but it all depends what he says. As we’re getting closer to an election, I expect some positive noises, but nothing that will really surprise the markets, so it’s the unemployment and BoE data today that you want to keep your eye on.
Late in the afternoon the USA has an interest rate decision and a press conference, so GBP/USD may also be affected today.
Thursday 20th March 2014
After yesterday’s incredibly busy day, things settle down a little. There is nothing of note from the UK or EU, but the USA does have some manufacturing data and a bank stress test in the afternoon.
Friday 21st March 2014
The latest UK Public sector borrowing figures are released today and is expected to come in at around £7.8bn. As always, if the number differs from this then the Pound may rise or fall accordingly.
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