Showing posts from April, 2014

Sterling/Euro up after German Inflation figures

Tuesday 29th April 2014
For the last week exchange rates have been quite stable, without much volatility. Today however we have seen some choppy movements on the Sterling/Euro rate in particular, following data releases from the UK and Germany. Let’s have a look at how it has affected exchange rates:

Pound slips after growth figures lower than expected
This morning the UK’s latest GDP figures were released, showing that the UK economy grew by 0.8% in the first quarter of 2014. This is the 5th consecutive period of GDP growth - the longest positive run since the financial crisis. 

However the Pound fell on the news as the market had been expecting it to be even higher, at 0.9%. Just before the release rates rose slightly in anticipation of a good result as you can see in the chart above. You can also see the sharp drop the moment the actual number was released. 

In the currency markets, figures like this are forecast in advance and priced into exchange rates accordingly. 

Pound/Euro rates b…

This week's data that could affect exchange rates

Monday 28th April 2014
Good morning. Today I will give a brief outline of how Sterling exchange rates start the week, and then I’ll list all the economic data releases that I think will affect currency prices this week. 

Let’s start with how the Pound is performing this Monday morning. Sterling has risen against the US Dollar this morning, hitting $1.6850. This was due to a strengthening of the Pound after U.S. drug maker Pfizer confirmed it had made a bid approach to Britain's second-biggest drugs group, AstraZeneca.

There weren’t any gains for Pound/Euro however, as the Euro is being kept strong by expectations that EU inflation will rise when figures are released later this week. 

Below I will list the main data releases I think will affect exchange rates. If you have a currency transaction to perform, and would like to get a quote or discuss how I can assist you, click here to send me a free no obligation enquiry. 

This week’s economic data releases. 
Monday 28th April 2014 

It’s be…

No change in GBP/EUR after ECB Draghi Speech

Thursday 24th April 2014 
Sterling remains well supported today, however rates haven’t risen any higher following the press conference by ECB member Mario Draghi.

Sterling/Euro remains at €1.2150 
As highlighted in previous posts this week, there was a chance that Pound/Euro rates could have risen today. 

The ECB president Mario Draghi has been warning against a strong Euro, and in recent speeches he has given little hints about further monetary easing to stop the Euro getting too strong. He gave a press conference this morning, during which he could well have talked about the Euro being overvalued if he had chosen to do so, and if he had hinted at some sort of easing I would have expected GBP/EUR to make gains. 

In the event it had no real effect. He did say that the ECB could make asset purchases to ward off the threat of disinflation, and mentioned that undue tightening of monetary conditions could lead to negative deposit rates, but didn’t really add anything to what he has already sai…

Pound/Euro rates fall after BoE Minutes

Wednesday 23rd April 
We’ve had good news and bad news about the UK economy today, but the bad news won the day and as a result we have seen the Pound fall, as I suggested that it would in my post yesterday, and it was for the reason I predicted, the Bank of England minutes. I’ll give you the good news first after a quick snapshot of today's Pound/Euro movements:

The good news: 
At 09:30am this morning we actually had some very positive UK data – figures showed that Public Sector borrowing by the government was much less than expected. Markets expected a number of £9.1bn, but the actual figure was only £4.86bn. This was very good news, however failed to make any impact on the value of the Pound as everyone waited for the Bank of England minutes. 

The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has increased its UK economic growth forecast for the first quarter of the year, from 0.9% to 1%. There was further good news for the economy from a survey by the CBI, which indicated…

Sterling/Euro exchange rates likely to move this week

Tuesday 22nd April 2014 
Good afternoon, and welcome back to regular currency updates after the Easter break. 

It’s been a quiet start to the week with no major data releases, and Sterling/Euro remains quite close to €1.22, with Sterling/Dollar hovering a little above $1.6800. 

Will Pound/Euro rates go up or down this week? 
There are 2 key things happening this week that I think will affect exchange rates. I’ve listed the week’s data at the bottom of today’s post, but I will also go into a little detail about the main releases that I think could change Pound/Euro rates. 

In effect we have the central banks of the UK and Europe pulling in different directions, and this will likely have an impact on which way the Pound/Euro currency pair could go in the coming weeks and months…. 

Bank of England could cause GBP/EUR rates to fall 
Tomorrow morning we have the latest minutes from the BoE meeting, and this will show what was discussed with regards to interest rates. I expect they may well hint t…

Pound/Euro up after Unemployment data. What next for Sterling?

Wednesday 16th April 2014 
The Pound has surged higher today, after the latest UK unemployment figures were released. These showed that the jobless rate has dipped below 7%, the first time we’ve seen that for 5 years. As a result, Sterling has surged higher, finally breaking above the €1.21 mark as you can see from today’s chart below: 

UK Unemployment causes Pound to rise 
As the chart clearly shows, as soon as the numbers were released, Sterling/Euro rates rose to €1.2150 before settling off. Sterling/Dollar also rose, hitting resistance at $1.68 to the Pound. You can read a full report on the Unemployment figures here on the BBC website  , and the ONS result can be found here.

So why has this caused the Pound to gain? 
It’s to do with interest rates again. The Bank said last August that it would not begin to think about raising rates until unemployment fell below 7pc. At the time, it believed this would not occur until 2016. Higher interest rates, or the possibility of higher rates i…

Sterling/Euro €1.21 & Sterling/Dollar $1.6740

Tuesday 15th April 2014
Sterling is holding firm above €1.21 against the Euro, and has risen to $1.6740 vs the US Dollar. The Pound has however remainder relatively range-bound this week without pushing much higher than that. Its 2 things keeping the rate supported: firstly we had the ECB president over the weekend say that if the Euro strengthens, they will look at stimulus. Today, UK inflation numbers were as expected, increasing the chance of an interest rate hike in the UK next year. 

In today’s post I’ll take a look at these 2 things that are keeping rates supported, and explain how you can take advantage of the current rates which are around a 16 month high. 

ECB warns of stimulus if Euro strengthens further 
ECB President Mario Draghi said in Washington on Saturday that "further strengthening of the exchange rate would require further stimulus." 

So what does this actually mean?

If the Euro were to strengthen, it would become more expensive to buy and Sterling/Euro rates wo…

Pound gains on strong data, but spike is shortlived

Thursday 10th April 2014 
Good afternoon. It’s been a busy week since my last post on Monday, and we’ve seen a raft of impressive UK data that caused Sterling exchange rates to rise nicely. We saw the GBP/EUR rate hit around €1.2150 and the GBP/USD rate as high as $1.6820; however in trading today we have already seen rates start to slide back away. 

In today’s post I will explain in detail why the figures caused Sterling to rise, and ways in which you can take advantage of spikes like this, which are often very short lived and hard to catch! 

UK manufacturing figures cause Sterling to rise 
On Tuesday we saw the latest UK manufacturing figures released. Analysts were expecting the figure to show output growing by 0.3%, but in fact output grew by 1%! As the figure was much better than expected, and as you can see in the chart above the Pound spiked hitting as high as €1.2150. 

Output now stands at its highest level in more than 2.5 years, and is a sign the UK economic revival is quote str…

GBP/EUR, GBP/USD, and the weeks economic data

Monday 7th April 2014 
Exchange rates are relatively stable as we start the trading week. In today’s post I’ll have a quick look at where Sterling/Euro and Sterling/Dollar rates stand, and what the forecast is for the short term for whether Pound exchange rates will go up or down. As usual for a Monday, I’ll also list the week’s economic data releases that I think will affect the currency markets. 

In my post last week I explained that rates had shot up to just over €1.2100 after the ECB announced it discussed conducting a Quantitative Easing programme. Pound/Euro rates remain a little below the €1.21 level today, having dropped a bit through trading after one of the ECB members said that there was no need to take immediate action. 

I’m surprised the Euro didn’t weaken further, but this week we will see several speeches by ECB members. If they shed any more light on the subject and give us an idea how likely a QE programme is, Pound/Euro rates could well pick up further the…

Pound/Euro rates back up to €1.21 after ECB press conference

Thursday 3rd April 2014 
Pound/Euro rates had fallen towards €1.20 this morning ahead of the ECB press conference, caused by slightly poor UK PMI numbers, and impressive EU Retail Sales. 

The dip didn't last long through, and the European Central Bank (ECB) president Mario Draghi has now finished his press conference. Despite some volatility in GBP/EUR rates in the last 24 hours, we’re now pretty much back where we were yesterday, with Pound/Euro rates around €1.21. The ECB news has caused GBP/USD to fallinto the $1.65’s. So let’s have a look at what he said, and how it affected exchange rates...

The chart above shows how the GBP/EUR rate has moved today. Let's look in detail what casued the swing in rates...

In my post yesterday, I expected one of two scenarios. Either Draghi would say inflation will sort itself out without intervention, which would have caused exchange rates to fall. The other scenario was that he would hint at easing, which I thought likely, meaning rates woul…

Pound/Euro rates could change tomorrow...

Wednesday 2nd April 2014 
We have seen Sterling rise against the Euro today, getting pretty close to the €1.21 level. We’re unchanged against the US Dollar which remains just above $1.66. 

I think that tomorrow is going to be a key day for Pound/Euro exchange rates, due to the ECB meeting that will give investors an idea whether they are going to take action to combat deflation. Today I will explain what tomorrow’s meeting means for those that need to buy or sell Euros at the best exchange rates. 

It will be a very important day for those of you that need to buy or sell Euros in the coming months. Read on to find out how tomorrow could affect currency exchange rates, and if you would like to discuss your requirement with me in detail, get in touch with me today

I can help you achieve exchange rates up to 5% better than banks or other brokers, so get in touch for a quote. It costs you nothing, and you could be very surprised how much you could save by using my services. 

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