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Showing posts from May, 2014

Will Pound/Euro rates go up or down June 2014?

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Friday 30th May 2014 
Good morning. Exchange rates remain quite steady today. Pound/Euro rates have dropped a little this morning after some very impressive German Retail Sales numbers. This strengthened the Euro and made it more expensive, pushing GBP/EUR down into the €1.22’s. Pound/Dollar rates remain a little above $1.6730. 

Will Pound/Euro rates go up or down June 2014? 
As regular readers of my blog will now, the current high GBP/EUR rate is all to do with interest rates. The markets expect the UK to raise interest rates, and this has been gradually priced into the market over the last few months, resulting in the highest Pound/Euro rates in 18 months. 

Over in Europe, the threat of deflation means that the European Central Bank (ECB) may have to cut interest rates. Next Thursday we will find out as they announce their decision. I think there is a very good chance they will cut to around 0.1%. If they do, then Pound/Euro could go higher. However should they choose to wait, then we w…

Pound falls against EUR & USD (May 2014)

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Wednesday 28th May 2014
The Pound has fallen quite a bit today against both the Euro and the US Dollar. GBP/USD is now sitting at a 6 week low of $1.67, which is the biggest one day fall in 4 months. GBP/EUR has fallen to a 1 week low of €1.2288. 


Why has the Pound fallen?
The currency markets move mostly on rumour. As regular readers of my blog will know, there has been much speculation UK interest rates will be going up at some point, and this has been driving the Pound higher as it gets priced into the market. 

However recent data such as this week’s poor Retail Numbers and Mortgage Approvals mean that the market is now paring back some of the more aggressive bets that the Bank of England could begin raising interest rates later this year. It now looks more likely to be next. 

These over-extended bets on sterling appreciation seem to have run out of steam. I have been pointing out in recent weeks that the market has got to the recent highs several times only to fall back away again, an…

Sterling falls slightly on UK mortgage numbers

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Tuesday 27th May 2014 
The UK and US markets opened today after being closed yesterday for the Bank Holiday. Initially things looked good for the Pound, rising against both the Euro and US Dollar as soon as the market opened at 8am. 

The reason for the initial gains was the Deputy BoE Governor Charlie Bean's comments at the weekend, where he said that the bank's plan to raise rates gradually means the first hike could come earlier than may otherwise have been the case. (Higher rates mean a higher return, and so the Pound gained a little strength.) The BoE governor Mark Carney speaks this evening, so any surprise comments from him could also have an effect on GBP/EUR rates, and is probably the most key event of the week in my opinion. 

In stark contrast, the European Central Bank president Mario Draghi said on Sunday that "more pre-emptive action may be warranted to ward off deflation". This hints to the markets that they may well pursue some sort of stimulus measures, …

Pound/Euro hits 18 month high of €1.2350

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Wednesday 21st May 2014
Good morning. We've seen further gains for the Pound this morning following very strong Retail Sales, and further speculation regarding UK interest rates. In today's report I'll have a look at both of these subjects in addition to what options you can consider if you have a foreign exchange transaction to carry out and want to get the best exchange rates. 

UK Retail Sales smash forecasts 
In my post yesterday I outlined that today’s Retail Sales could affect exchange rates. Markets expected the monthly figure to be 0.5%, but the actual figure came in at a staggering 1.3%, much higher than forecast.

As Retail Sales are a good indicator of the economy as a whole, the news has given the Pound a further push and we have seen rates break through the €1.23 level, and at the moment is holding on and looking sustained. This is the best we’ve seen Euro rates now for 18 months. 

Bank of England contradicts over interest rates 
Interest rate rises could be the &qu…

Best Exchange Rates for GBP/EUR & GBP/AUD

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Tuesday 20th May 2014
Good afternoon. We've seen the Pound rise this morning, touching a 16 month high (€1.23) against the Euro again, after figures showed that inflation rose more than expected last month. Despite the increase in the CPI inflation measure, the rate is still below the Bank of England's 2% target for inflation. 



Last week, Bank of England governor Mark Carney said he expected the rate of inflation to remain below its target for the next two years; however the slight rise does slightly increase the chance of an interest rate hike in the UK, which is why Sterling rose. 

We’ll get further information on this subject tomorrow morning, when the Bank of England releases the minutes to its recent meeting where rates were held. It will show what was discussed and how they voted. I don’t really expect anything new from the minutes and I would be surprised if GBP/EUR pushes through the €1.23 barrier. 

We’ve seen that level tested a few times recently, but it would take some…

GBP/EUR, GBP/USD and next weeks economic data releases

Friday 16th May 2014
Good afternoon. The Pound has steadily recovered this morning, climbing up to €1.2265 against the Euro and $1.68 vs the US Dollar. There hasn’t been any real data of note from the UK, and the gains for Sterling really just reflect the optimism surrounding the UK economy at the moment.

Rates have failed to break through the €1.23 barrier this week however, as the Pound is being kept in check with this week’s news that the Bank of England will only raise interest rates gradually when they eventually decide to start putting them up in 2015.

For this with Pounds to covert, then GBP/EUR is around a 16th month high, and GBP/USD just below a 5 year high – great levels for those needing to buy foreign currency.

If you have a currency transaction to perform and would like to see what rate I can offer you, click here to send me a free no obligation enquiry.

Below is an outline of all next week’s data that I think will affect exchange rates. Have a great weekend.

Alastair Archb…

Sterling falls from 16 month high on BoE report

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Wednesday 14th May 2014 
Sterling has fallen from a 16 month high against the Euro this morning, following the Bank of England inflation report. When the market opened this morning, GBP/EUR rates were sat at 1.2300, which is the highest we have seen since January 2013. 

Pound falls on BoE Inflation report 
We had various figures from the UK this morning at 09:30am, most of which were quite good; Unemployment has fallen to 6.8%, and the Bank of England raised its growth forecasts. The claimant count number was slightly worse than expected which started the slide in rates. 

At 10:30 am the Bank of England releases its quarterly inflation report, and this was then followed by a press conference by the governor Mark Carney, in which he said the economy had "edged closer" to the point when interest rates would need to "gradually rise". 

But he reiterated that increases would be "gradual" and that the rate "may stay at historically low levels for some time"…

Pound/Euro hits €1.2240 after ECB press conference

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Thursday 8th May 2014 
Sterling/Euro initially slipped as low as 1.2120 this afternoon, before soaring back and smashing through the €1.22 level, after the European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi gave a speech weakening the Euro. At the time or writing rates seem to have levelled off at €1.2238 – around the best it has been since January 2013, so great news for Euro buyers.

In today’s post I’ll look at the actions of the central banks here in the UK and in the Eurozone, analyse how it has affected exchange rates, and where Pound rates may head in the coming weeks and months. 

Bank of England (BoE) takes no action as expected 
UK interest rates have been held at the record low of 0.5% for another month by the Bank of England, as we all expected them to do. They also made no change in their bond buying stimulus programme. 

So, no surprises then from the BoE today. Much of the Pound’s strength this year are due to the fact most economists think they will start raising interest r…

This week's economic data releases

Tuesday 6th May 2014
Good morning. Markets re-open today after the Bank Holiday Break. Currently Sterling/Euro remains around €1.2165 which is close to a 16 month high. Sterling/Dollar has risen further this morning up to $1.6950, a 5 year high.

As usual for the start of the week, today I will run through the main data releases that you should keep an eye on if you're looking for the best exchange rates.
Weekly Economic Data that may affect exchange rates 
Monday 5th May 2014 – UK markets were closed for the May bank holiday, however the market will be reacting this morning to various EU releases from Monday – Investor Confidence, Inflation data and Growth forecasts. 

Tuesday 6th May 2014 – All markets are open again this morning, but UK data is fairly light with only some minor inflation numbers. The EU also fires a salvo of inflation figures into the mix, along with the latest retail sales figures so GBP/EUR could well be a little volatile today. 

Over in the states we have Trade Bala…

Pound/Euro & Pound/Dollar May 2014 forecast

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Monday 1st May 2014
It’s been a little quiet on the markets today, with an EU bank holiday meaning trade is thin, and economic statistics are also thin. 

We have seen Sterling rise a little this morning however after UK Consumer credit and net lending figures were quite a bit higher than expected. This means if people are borrowing more money, there is in turn more confidence in the economy, hence the spike for Sterling. This has pushed GBP/EUR close to €1.22 and GBP/USD to $1.69. 

Today we will have a look at what might happen to exchange rates in the coming weeks. Remember also that if you need to convert currency, perhaps to buy or sell property abroad, then get in touch with me for a free quote and a chat about which way the rate could move. I can source excellent rates of exchange that could save you a considerable sum.


What next for Pound/Euro rates? 
Sterling/Euro is trading around the best it’s been since January 2013. It’s being kept strong by robust UK data, and the threat of mo…