Wednesday, 6 August 2014

Pound/Euro & Pound Dollar forecast 2014

Wednesday 6th August 2014 
Good afternoon. The currency markets remain quite volatile, with Pound/Euro rates recovering slightly this week back to the €1.26 mark; however Pound/Dollar rates have fallen to around $1.68, quite a bit below the 5 year high we recently saw. Today I’ll cover what has been happening to exchange rates, including forecasts on where the GBP/EUR and GBP/USD rate may move in the coming weeks. 

Pound/Euro 


As you can see from the chart below, the Pound/Euro rate recently hit a 2 year high of €1.27. Many thought the rate would continue to climb towards 1.30 however I warned that I thought the market had peaked, and the Pound/Euro rate was as high as it may go in the short term. 


Indeed over the course of the last month the rate has failed to improve, and has dipped several times due to poor UK economic data. There have been warnings from the IMF that the Pound is far overvalued, and UK economic figures are starting to disappoint. For much of 2014 the UK has been enjoying a robust economic recovery, and this had been driving the Pound upwards. 

It now seems the good news is all priced into the value of the Pound, and that’s why the rate has leveled off. This morning we had some poor UK Manufacturing and Industrial production figures that knocked the Pound lower, however it soon recovered as we saw poor German factory orders that weakened the Euro and reversed the drop. 

The next mover for exchange rates will likely be tomorrow’s Bank of England and European Central bank statements. Clues could be given to monetary policy, and any surprises could easily cause exchange rates to move significantly. 

Which way could Pound/Euro move in the coming months? 


It’s impossible to predict the market, but my view is that the Pound is unlikely to break higher in the short term. The fact that interest rates will only rise slowly in the UK is likely to keep the Pound in check, so if you need to buy Euros this year, you should consider fixing the rate while it’s so good. You can fix the rate for up to 2 years into the future by lodging 10% of the total you want to convert. Click here to find out more about these types of contracts. 

Those with Euros to move back to Pounds should also be cautious. While rates have stopped moving against you, you don’t want to leave yourself exposed. A Stop Loss order protects you against the exchange rate getting worse, while still allowing you to take advantage of any gains in your favour. 

If you are looking for the best rates between Pounds and Euros, click here for a free no obligation enquiry on how we can help you and the rates we can offer. 

Pound/Dollar forecast 2014


Recently Sterling/Dollar was comfortably above the $1.70 mark, however has been falling in recent weeks. I expect this to continue due to the fact the US economy is starting to recover, and this is strengthening the Dollar making it more expensive to purchase. 


The political uncertainty in Ukraine and the Middle East is also causing the ‘safe haven’ US Dollar to gain strength. I wouldn’t be surprised to see rates back towards the $1.60 mark by year end. 

Need to buy or sell US Dollars at the best rate? Click here for a free quote. 

Get in touch for a free quote on our exchange rates 


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    Get in touch for a free quote on our exchange rates 


    Whatever your currency needs, large or small, my service can help you achieve the best exchange rates and utilise contracts that can protect your bottom line. 

    Click here to make a free enquiry today and find out how I can help. - See more at: http://www.foreignexchangerateforecasts.blogspot.co.uk/2014/07/pound-falls-further-against-other.html#sthash.iBgo6lMi.dpuf

    Get in touch for a free quote on our exchange rates 


    Whatever your currency needs, large or small, my service can help you achieve the best exchange rates and utilise contracts that can protect your bottom line. 

    Click here to make a free enquiry today and find out how I can help. - See more at: http://www.foreignexchangerateforecasts.blogspot.co.uk/2014/07/pound-falls-further-against-other.html#sthash.iBgo6lMi.dpuf