Monday 10th November 2014
Good afternoon. It’s been a very quiet start to the week with no economic data releases of note. The Pound/Euro rate remains in the mid €1.27’s, and Pound/Dollar rates have dipped into the $1.58’s.
As usual for a Monday, below I’ve listed the weeks data releases that I think will affect exchange rates. It’s a very quiet week all in all, with the most interesting release being on Wednesday when we see the latest UK unemployment numbers, along with the Bank of England (BoE) inflation report. This is important as inflation forecasts will have an effect on when the UK may raise interest rates. If inflation is forecast to remain low, expect the Pound to weaken. If inflation looks like it is on the rise again, the Pound could well strengthen.
I personally think GBP/EUR will remain in its recent range of 1.26 to 1.28 in the coming weeks. Those buying Euros should consider locking a rate in now while it’s close to the best in 6 years. I can’t see anything on the horizon that will push the rate higher.
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This week’s economic data releases that could affect exchange rates.
Tuesday – Another very quiet day, with the only data of note a speech by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand governor, along with a report from them about financial stability, so we could see some volatility in GBP/NZD rates.
Wednesday – I think today will be the most important of the week for the Pound. We have the latest Unemployment numbers, alond with the Bank of England inflation report. This is important as the jobs numbers are a reflection of the economy, and the inflation report could give some insight into the future movements for UK interest rates.
Thursday – Nothing of note from the UK, but the European Central Bank issues its monthly report, so GBP/EUR could be affected. Over in the USA we have Jobless claims numbers, and from Canada we have a BoC review.
Friday – Yet again nothing of interest from the UK. The EU releases it’s latest inflation numbers and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) numbers, so GBP/EUR will be driven by these releases today. Over in the USA we have Retail Sales numbers and a consumer sentiment survey, both of which could affect GBP/USD rates.
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Labels: Bank of England, Best Exchange Rates, economic data releases, Inflation, pound sterling forecast, Pound/Euro, Sterling