Wednesday, 8 April 2015

Pound/Euro back to €1.38, will Sterling go up or down?

Wednesday 8th April 2015
Since the Easter break, Pound/Euro rates have seen a very decent recovery, rising from 1.3550 to 1.3800 today, as you can see from the chart below: 


Before the Easter weekend, the Pound had come under pressure due to political uncertainty in the run up to the general election. This had pulled rates down from 1.38 to the 1.35’s. The reason it has gained and recovered these losses is due to better than expected UK economic data. 

Why has the Pound gone up against the Euro? 


This week we have seen figures that show activity in the UK's services sector grew at the fastest pace in more than 6 months. We have also seen the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) forecast UK economic of 0.7% in the three months to March which is better than it has been. We also recently saw the Office for National Statistics (ONS) revise economic growth upwards. We’ll have to wait a few more weeks however before the first official estimate of the UK's economic growth for this year. 

Will Sterling go up or down in the next few weeks? 


All in all the numbers are good, and this has given renewed optimism for the Pound. I still don’t think this will be sustained. We saw a very similar trend a week ago when rates rose to 1.38, but he gains were short lived. As you can also see form the chart above, the rate quickly dropped back 2 cents and the reasons for this remain – political uncertainty on the run up to the general election. 

In addition to election jitters, Sterling could come under pressure this week due to a statement from the Bank of England. They don’t want the Pound to be this strong against the Euro and we may see comments designed to weaken Sterling. Also watch out for Friday when the latest Industrial and Manufacturing production figures are released. The numbers are expected to show growth of 0.3% and 0.4% respectively. If the actual numbers are lower than this Sterling will fall against other currencies and vice versa. Also on Friday a GDP estimate could affect the Pound. 

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