Friday, 15 May 2015

Pound soars back to nearly €1.40 after Conservative Majority

As I said in my last post just over a week ago, the blog was going to be quiet while I took a short holiday. Much has happened since I’ve been away! As most readers will already know, the Pound has surged higher against the Euro as Sterling posted its largest gains against the Euro in years. As exit polls showed that the Conservatives would take an overall majority, GBP/EUR rose 4 cents, and touched the €1.40 level several times as the chart below shows: 


Why did the Pound gain so much on a conservative win? 


The Pound had fallen sharply before the election, due to political uncertainty for investors who had expected a hung parliament. Most polls had again and again shown the two main parties neck and neck, with neither expected to secure a parliamentary majority. The overall majority for the conservatives while not popular with everyone, is certainly very good news for the UK economy. As such, investors rallied to buy the Pound, helping to push it up against other currencies. 

Will the Pound/Euro rate get back to €1.40? 


I personally don’t think so. You can see the resistance GBP/EUR has at €1.40 in the above chart, and the currency pair seems unable to break through this. Indeed this week we’ve seen the rate drop back to the €1.38 level. I think the Pound/Euro rate could now fall again, and I’ll explain the reasons why… 

  • The Conservatives now have a majority, they can implement much tighter monetary policy than they have done under the Con/Lib Dem coalition. This means that the Bank of England may now keep monetary policy easy and keep interest rates low, which would weaken the Pound, which could take some of the wind out of sterling's sails. 
  • Cameron has pledged to hold a referendum on membership of the European Union within two years, and the uncertainty this will generate will also keep investors wary and limit any further gains.
  • The Spotlight is now back on the EU and Greece, and actually recent figures suggest the European Central Banks stimulus program is having the desired effect, and the economy in Europe seems to be recovering. 
  • Greece (which incidentally is where I have just been on holiday!) seems to be playing ball and, for the moment, is meeting its debt repayments. The Euro is weak at the moment due to Greece, and if this gets resolved, it could regain strength and become more expensive to buy. 

What should you do if you need to buy Euros this year?


I can’t predict what the rate will do, nobody can. What you can do however is speak to an expert currency broker like me to ensure you have an understanding of the options available. For example if you are worried about the rate falling, you can lock in the rate now for up to 2 years with a Forward contract. If you want to gamble on rates going higher, then you can use a ‘Stop Loss’ order to fix a rate should we see it plummet below a particular level, so you’re not exposed. Or, you could hedge your bets and fix a rate on half your requirement now, and see what happens later in the year with the remaining funds you need. 

Do you need to achieve the best possible exchange rates? 


The above is just an example of how I can help you if you’re looking to buy or sell currency. I can source you rates of exchange that are very close to the mid-market level you see published online and if you are converting a large sum, the savings could be thousands of Pounds. If you would like a quote on the exchange rate I can provide, or would like to discuss your options in more detail regarding when to fix a rate, then click below to send me a free no obligation enquiry today.