Tuesday, 28 July 2015

GBP/EUR falls 4 cents in a week. GBP/USD also set to drop

Tuesday 28th July 2015
Sterling has fallen sharply against the Euro of late, and in the last week had slipped from €1.44 down to €1.40. As you can see from the chart below, the rate has recovered slightly this morning, getting back above €1.41: 




The main reason for the gradual slide in Sterling is partly due to renewed optimism surround Greece, but also the global economic picture. If you look at the global economy, you will see that the Chinese market is in turmoil, and there has also been a sharp drop in Commodity prices. This is giving investors serious doubts over the strength of economic growth worldwide, and in turn this casts some doubt over whether the Bank of England will actually raise interest rates at the turn of the year. 

The global picture means that the Bank of England may well have to tighten their monetary policy, and this has pulled Sterling lower against other currencies. 

This morning however, strong UK Growth figures have shown that the economy has grown by 0.7% in the last few months, which is an improvement over recent measures. This positive news has pushed the Sterling/Euro rate up by 1% comfortably over the €1.41 mark. 

Sterling/Dollar 

It is interest rates driving this currency pair too at the moment. Today, the US Federal Reserve starts a 2 day meeting, with an announcement due tomorrow. If they give further signals that interest rates are going to rise within the next few months, then expect the US Dollar to gain strength and pull rates lower.

 
Currently GBP/USD is trading at around $1.56. I don’t expect the level to remain at these levels. As the US are widely expected to be the first western economy to start pushing up rates, this could mean the USD strengthens. I still expect rates to drop below the key $1.50 mark by the end of the year. 

Do you have a currency transaction to perform? 

You can get in touch with me using the link below to obtain a quotation on your exchange. I usually have no problem beating rates from bank and other brokers, and even a small improvement in the rate can save you a significant amount of money.