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Showing posts from August, 2015

Sterling continues to fall against the Euro

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Wednesday 26th August 2015
Following ‘Black Monday’ there continues to be volatility with Sterling exchange rates. Looking at Sterling/Euro in particular, the recent 8 year highs of €1.44 are now a distant memory. Rates have plunged in the last few weeks, and despite recovering a little yesterday, it fell again last night at is now stable around the €1.36 level as you can see from the chart below:


Further volatility expected on currency markets 

This all began Monday when a global rout in the stock markets was prompted by a huge share sell off in China. Fears of a global slowdown intensified in recent days after China devalued its currency and data pointed to further signs of weakness, triggering volatility in global stock and currency markets. 

Interest Rates 

China cut its interest rates this week in an effort to avert disaster, and investors are now questioning whether the Federal Reserve in the USA and the Bank of England in the UK can change interest rates. Much of the Pound’s strengt…

Huge exchange rate volatility GBPEUR, GBPNZD, GBPAUD, GBPUSD

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Monday 24th August 2015 
It’s incredibly volatile on the currency markets today. Just look at what has happened with Sterling/Euro rates, falling from 1.38 into 1.34's:


When I opened the trading floor this morning at 8am, GBP/EUR was at 1.38 where it ended on Friday. We have seen the rate drop throughout the day, and at 2.15pm it plummeted to as low as 1.3455 before recovering back into the €1.35’s. This is a huge drop and other currency pairs are seeing extreme volatility, due to global stock rout and economic uncertainty. 

The FTSE 100 has lost 10%, as investors dumped riskier assets and flocked to currencies seen as safe havens on fears about a slowdown in the Chinese and global economies. The Euro has been a huge benefactor, as usual safe havens like Sterling and the US Dollar are suffering. This is because the global slowdown means interest rates are no longer likely to go up in the UK or US any time soon. 

As the Euro gains significant strength, commodity based currencies like t…

Why has Pound/Euro fallen into €1.38's?

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Friday 21st August 2015
Since my last post on Tuesday, Sterling/Euro rates have fallen from €1.42 into the €1.38's, caused by the Euro gaining strength. 

There are several factors that have caused the single currency to gain. Firstly the news that Greek Prime Minister and Syriza leader Alexis Tsipras stood down on Thursday, paving the way for new elections. This seems to have been taken as a positive move for the Euro and last night the rate starting slipping away. This continued this morning when German and European inflation numbers were better than expected, coupled with worse than expected UK Public Sector borrowing data. 

As you can see from the chart below, in the last week the rate has been in steady decline. With a resolution to the Greek debt crisis, and decent EU economic data, this could well spell the end of the record 8 year high GBP/EUR exchange rates we have seen recently. It’s good news however for those selling Euros, with a typical conversion of €250,000.00 netting …

GBP/EUR falls 4 cents in 1 week, before recovering to €1.42

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Tuesday 18th August 2015 
It’s been an interesting week in the currency markets since my last post a week ago. (Apologies for the lack of updates recently; my girlfriend managed to break her leg quite badly so I’ve had other priorities!)

In the last week we saw Sterling weaken significantly, pulling GBP/EUR rates down from €1.42 back into the €1.39’s. Today however we have seen a significant recovery, and during trading today we have seen the rate shoot back up over €1.42. After a look at the last 7 day GBP/EUR chart I’ll explain what has been causing the volatility. Sterling/Euro over the last 7 days: 


What caused the Pound/Euro rate to fall into the €1.39s? 
It was a combination of poor UK economic data, positive data from Euro, and a 3rd €86bn bailout finally agreed for Greece. 

Let’s start with the UK numbers. Sterling fell sharply last Wednesday as numbers showed that wage growth had slowed, reflecting a slowing of the UK’s economic recovery. In turn the numbers means it’s more and …

What could affect exchange rates this week?

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Monday 10th August 2015 
Good morning. As I outlined in Friday’s post, Sterling has fallen against other currencies in recent days. Today I’ll list out the main economic data releases that are likely to cause volatility in exchange rates. After last week’s interest rate speculation for the UK and USA, at the time of writing GBP/EUR exchange rates are a little above €1.41, and GBP/USD rates are in the mid $1.54’s. You can view live rates updated every few seconds including interactive charts by clicking here. 

Remember that if you’re looking for the best deal on currency, in addition to my market updates here on the blog, I can also provide you a quote for your exchange that is likely to be significantly better than your bank or existing broker may offer. Click here to get your quotation today. 

What could affect Sterling exchange rates this week? 

As usual for a Monday, I have listed below this week’s main fundamental data releases that I think could affect exchange rates. If you have a c…

Sterling falls after Super Thursday

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Friday 7th August 2015
Super Thursday was anything but for the Pound, as a dovish tone from the Bank of England caused a large sell off for Sterling, pulling GBP/EUR exchange rates lower. The decline has continued this afternoon so in just 48 hours exchange rates have dropped from from €1.44 to nearly €1.41: 



Super Thursday pushes GBP/EUR lower

On Thursday, the Bank's Monetary Policy Committee voted to keep interest rates at their current historic low of 0.5%. What surprised many was that only 1 of the 9 members voted for a rate hike. The markets had been expecting at least 2 or more to vote for a hike. 

This means that earlier in the week expectation was for interest rates to go up at the end of the year. Deputy governor Ben Broadbent said the Committee had no specific time in mind for a rise and comments by governor Mark Carney had been misinterpreted. 

Following yesterday’s news it now looks like mid 2016 is more likely. Investors sold the Pound on the back of the news, pulling the …

Exchange Rates volatile due to interest rate speculation

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Wednesday 5th August 2015
There was some movement on both GBP/EUR and GBP/USD exchange rates overnight, and it’s interest rate speculation again that’s driving exchange rates. After a quick look at the charts I’ll explain what’s going on. As you can see below Sterling/Euro rates have climbed to €1.4350 and Sterling/Dollar rates dropped a cent overnight: 

Sterling/Euro
Sterling/Dollar
GBP/USD - US Interest rates affect exchange rates

Last night, one of the US Federal Reserve members, Dennis Lockhart, who is one of the people who decides on interest rates, said that it would take "significant deterioration" in the U.S. economy for him to not support a rate hike in September. This means that chances are increased that the USA will be the first major western economy to start pushing rates back up. The hint of higher interest rates tends to strengthen a currency due to the higher return on offer for investors. 

On the comments, the USD gained strength and pulled GBP/USD Rates down. …

What could affect exchange rates this week?

Monday 3rd August 2015 
Good morning and welcome to a new week of updates about exchange rates. In today’s post, I’m going to take a look at the economic data releases for the week ahead that could affect exchange rates. Currently GBP/EUR sits a little above €1.42, and GBP/USD sits just below $1.56. 

What could affect Sterling exchange rates this week? 

There are lots of things that can change the value of a currency. Regular readers will know that in recent times it’s been events in Greece, and political situations like the Scottish referendum and UK election. Usually however, it’s fundamental data such as unemployment figures and interest rates. 

We already know well in advance what is going to be released using calenders such as this one, and analysts give their forecasts as to what they think the results will be. These forecasts are already priced into the value of a currency, so what’s important is not necessarily whether the figure is good or bad for an economy, but whether the figu…