Monday, 7 September 2015

What could affect exchange rates this week?

Monday 7th September 2015 
Good morning. As usual for a Monday, today I will outline this weeks scheduled data releases that could affect exchange rates. 

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This week’s data that could affect Sterling exchange rates 

Monday 7th September 2015 – It’s been relatively quiet today on the data front due to a market holiday in the United States. In Europe, the month on month German Industrial production was slightly worse than expected, weakening the single currency slightly and pushing GBP/EUR rates to around €1.37. 

Tuesday 8th September 2015 – There’s no UK data of note today, however GBP/EUR exchange rates could still be affected by some important releases in Europe. In Germany, the latest Trade Balance figures are released. This can be important because if this shows a demand for German exports, then the Euro could gain strength and become more expensive to buy. We also see the latest EU wide Gross Domestic Product (GDP) numbers today. I expect quarterly growth of 0.3%. Any less than this then expect GBP/EUR to rise, and vice versa. 

Wednesday 9th September 2015 – Some UK data for investors to chew on today, including Industrial & Manufacturing production, a GDP estimate (expected at 0.7%) and House Price data. If we see less growth than expected with any of these, the Sterling is likely to fall. Elsewhere, Canada and New Zealand releases their latest decision on interest rates which could affect GBP/CAD and GBP/NZD rates. 

Thursday 10th September 2015 – Today is the most important day of the week for Sterling, as we have the latest Bank of England interest rate decision. Rates are almost certainly going to be left on hold at 0.5%, however immediately after the decision, the governor will release the minutes which will show how the vote went, and what they discussed. If any of the members voted for a rate hike, expect the Pound to gain. Elsewhere, Australia releases lots of Jobs numbers. I think these are quite likely to be poor so expect the AUD to lose out if that’s the case. 

Friday 11th September 2015 – The only UK data of note today is the latest inflation expectations. This can impact future interest rate movements and so might affect Sterling. Elsewhere Germany releases inflation numbers, and the USA has its latest monthly budget statement. 

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