Monday, 23 November 2015

What could move Sterling exchange rates this week?


I'm often asked what actually moves exchange rates. It's various things and the main ones are: acts of terrorism/war, natural disasters, political events, and economic data. Of these 4 things, you can only really plan for the last 2; economic data and political events. The first 2 are of course impossible to foresee and usually catch the markets by surprise. This week we have the Autumn budget statement from the UK Chancellor George Osbourne (political events) and it could have an effect on the market, but in my experience it's usually a non-event. What he is going to say will be leaked in advance, so it's only if there us a surprise announcement that Sterling exchange rates could be affected.

This leaves us with economic data. It's always widely forecast in advance what various financial data releases will be, and these are priced into the exchange rate in advance. If however the actual figure is better or worse than expected, then we'll often see exchange rate movements. This is paramount for anyone that needs to convert a large sum of money, as even a fractional change in the rate can make a very big difference.

Below I've listed the main financial releases for the week that I think might have an effect on exchange rates. If you have currency to convert, would like to discuss what could move the rate, or simply get a quote from me to compare with your bank or existing broker, then click here to get in touch with me. 

This weeks economic data releases

Monday 23rd November 2015 - Today is relatively quiet on the data front. We've already seen some inflation numbers from Germany, and these were slightly better than expected which has pulled GBP/EUR slightly lower but not by much. The only other release today is UK Manufacturing PMI that could impact GBP/USD rates.

Tuesday 24th November 2015 - For Sterling/Euro today, the main news is the UK inflation Report. This could have a big impact on speculation on when UK interest rates will go up, and so very important for the Pound. Also today we have the latest German GDP numbers, and as Europe's largest economy, a strong figure could strengthen the Euro and pull GBP/EUR lower. Elsewhere, the USA also releases its GDP numbers along with spending data, both of which might move GBP/USD rates.

Wednesday 25th November 2015 - The main news on the agenda today is the Autumn  Budget statement by Chancellor George Osborne. Any surprises could affect Sterling, but in my experience there are rarely any surprises and it has little effect on currency prices. Elsewhere today we have lots of data from the States: Income, Spending, Jobs, Inflation and Home Sales, so lots for investors to chew on that might move Pound/Dollar rates. Lastly, those with an eye on GBP/NZD rates should note that New Zealand releases is Trade Balance figures at 22.45pm.

Thursday 26th November 2015 - Quiet today, but it could be interesting as we have the Bank of England financial Stability report, which is published twice a year. It's their assessment of the outlook for price stability, and the resilience of the UK financial sector. If they are positive about the economy the Pound may gain, however they may well have a cautious, dovish tone which could send the Pound lower.

Friday 27th November 2015 - Another important day for the Pound that sees both the latest Consumer Confidence figures, along with the latest Gross Domestic Product figures. The figure is expected at 0.5% for the Quarter. A higher or lower number will send Sterling higher or lower respectively.

To discuss how any of the above data could affect the currency pair you're looking at, click here to send me a free enquiry. I can discuss your requirements over the phone, explain what is moving the market, and provide you a quote to compare with your bank or existing broker.

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