Tuesday, 29 March 2016

Will exchange rates go up or down in the next few months?

Since my last post, GBP/EUR rates have remained largely range-bound within a 1 cent range of around €1.2650 to €1.2750. Last week was expected to be a quiet one, but it was anything but with the attacks in Brussels causing investors to seek safe investments, causing Sterling to drop across the board.

In fact the Pound has now fallen to a 2 year low against a basket of currencies on a trade weighted basis.

Will the exchange rate go up or down in the next few months?


Unfortunately it is impossible to predict currency movements, however with a sound knowledge of what can make the rate go up or down, you can make an informed choice on when to lock in to a rate of exchange. I can also provide you a quote that will be up to 5% better than banks or other brokers may offer, so if you need to convert £5k+ on a bank to bank transfer basis, contact me today for a free quote.

In terms of what could move the exchange rate in the coming weeks, there are 2 factors to consider. Firstly, economic data releases. There are scheduled releases most days, and depending on whether these are as analysts expect, it can cause exchange rates to move. I've listed this weeks main releases below.  Of course your currency requirement will be a particular currency pair, so for a free bespoke consultation and quote for the currency you need to buy or sell, send me a free enquiry. 

Other than scheduled economic releases like the ones below, my view is that opinion polls regarding the EU referendum will be key to how the Pound moves in the comings weeks. For example, last week's polls show that it's getting incredibly tight. An ICM poll puts the 'in' campaign at 41% and the out at 43%.  Another one last week by ComRes gave the 'in' camp a very narrow leads. The bookies have also tightened the odds in recent days, showing just how uncertain the outcome will be.

Put simply, the higher chance of the UK leaving the EU and the Pound could fall further. Indeed HSBC have recently warned that GBP/EUR rates could hit parity if the UK votes to leave. To discuss your currency requirement with me and find out more about the rates I can provide, and the contract types I offer to protect against adverse rate movements, click here. 

This week's economic data releases


Tuesday 29th March 2016 - There's nothing much of note today other than a speech by the FED chair Janet Yellen later this afternoon. If she hints at US interest rates going up, expect GBP/USD to drop. 

Wednesday 30th March 2016 - UK Consumer confidence is the only British release of note. Germany has some inflation numbers, and the US some jobs data. I don't expect these releases to have a huge impact on exchaneg rates.

Thursday 31st March 2016 - Probably the most important day of the week. In the UK we have the latest GDP figures and mortgage approvals, along with a Speech by the BoE governor Mark Carney. Good numbers and positive comments could send the Pound higher, but any warnings from Carney about the referendum or growth could see Sterling drop in value. 

Friday 1st April 2016 - We do have some EU unemployment numbers today, but I think most focus will be on GBP/USD exchange rates. At lunchime it's jobs day in the USA, where we see various measures of emplooyment. The Non-Farm Payrolls are the most important, and often causes a large change in GBP/USD rates as the actual figure is usually very different to what the market is expecting.

If you need to buy or sell currency at the best rates, why not get in touch for a free quote. In addition to providing market commentary, I work for one of the UK's leading independant foreign exhcange brokerages, and should have no issue beating rates from your bank or existing currency broker.