Monday, 25 April 2016

Pound gains further, as Brexit looking less likely

Sterling has continued it's strong run as we start the week, with Pound/Euro rates not far from €1.29, and GBP/USD close to $1.45. The current levels are a good 5 cents higher than two or three weeks ago.

The reason for the rise upwards is the simple fact it's now looking less likely that Britain will vote to leave the EU The fact that President Obama has entered the debate, putting into doubt the ability for the UK to arrange trade deals with the US in the event of a Brexit. Odds are therefore starting to swing towards the remain campaign, and sentiment is higher helping to push the Pound higher against other currencies.

I think that the currency markets will move in line with opinion polls in the coming weeks, and anything that suggest we may leave the EU will weaken the Pound, anything that supports the remain vote, could help keep the Pound supported. Other than developments surround Brexit, there will also be the usual scheduled economic data releases that could move rates. Below I have listed the main releases for the coming weeks.

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This week's economic data releases


Below I've listed the main scheduled events for the coming week that I think will impact exchange rates. There are of course other things that will affect rates, such as the latest Brexit Opinion polls. For a detailed explanation of what could move exchange rates for the currency you need to buy, contact us today.

Tuesday 26th April 2016 - The only data of note today is from the USA, so GBP/USD could be affected by: Consumer Confidence data, Inflation numbers and Durable Goods orders.

Wednesday 27th April 2016 - Today we see the latest UK GPD figures, which show if the UK economy is growing. It's an important release that could affect Sterling exchange rates. I expect quarterly growth of 0.4%. Anything below this may send the Pound lower and vice versa. Elsewhere we have Homes sales data from the states, and the latest US FED decision and accompanying statement. It could be a volatile day for GBP/USD rates.

Thursday 28th April 2016 - There's nothing from the UK today other than a measure of consumer confidence, but we do have plenty from Europe that could move GBP/EUR rates: Unemployment figures, Inflation data, various measures of market confidence, and an economic sentiment indicator. From the USA we have jobless claims, GDP numbers.

Friday 29th April 2016 - We end the week with UK mortgage approvals, EU unemployment and inflation data, and various inflationary measures from the USA.

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