Monday, 23 May 2016

What could move exchange rates this week?

The Pound has slipped away today as the trading week started, falling further from last weeks 4 month highs against the Euro. The pair is currently settled in the low €1.29's. It seems that investors are being a little more cautious, still wary that the UK could vote to leave the EU next month.

Last weeks gains were on the back of poll suggesting a slight lead for the 'remain' camp, coupled with higher than expected retail sales. However as I alluded to in Friday's post, opinion polls are sometimes unreliable. There also seems to a big divide in terms of the various age groups, and I think that the outcome will be down to voter turnout. It's all very well that the majority of those polled indicate they would vote to remain, but counts for nothing if these people don't vote. Many of those supporting the remain camp are also those that may not be likely to actually vote.

It's also worth noting that away from the sometimes biased press reports, the general feeling is that people are unsatisfied with the status quo, and there is still every chance we'll wake up on the morning of the 24th June with Britain gaining it's independence from Europe. If that proves to be the case, expect Sterling to drop sharply in value.

Back to the here and now. It's Monday, and as regular readers will know, I usually outline the scheduled economic data releases for the week ahead that could move exchange rates, which I have outlined below.

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This week's economic data releases that could move rates


Monday 23rd May 2016 - Today has been a little quiet in the markets, with no data of note from the UK. IN Europe we have seen lower than expected inflation numbers this morning, but these did little to affect GBP/EUR rates which have dropped today following the surge witnessed last week.

Tuesday 24th May 2016 - The UK releases it's public sector net borrowing figures today. These show how much debt the government holds, which is predicted to be around £6.2bn. If it's higher, expect the Pound to fall. We also have German GDP figures, and EU wide economic sentiment measures, both of which could affect GBP/EUR rates. Elsewhere, the USA provides it's latest Home Sales data, and New Zealand releases its latest Trade Balance numbers that could move GBP/NZD rates.

Wednesday 25th May 2016 - There's nothing of note from the UK today, but GBP/EUR could be affected by the latest Business climate measures from Germany. There is also the EU EcoFin meeting. Those watching the GBP/CAD rate should look for the Bank of Canada rate decision. It's likely rates will be left at 0.5%, but any comments that accompany the decision could affect the Loonie.

Thursday 26th May 2016 - Preliminary UK GDP figures are released today. I expect this to show 0.4% quarterly growth. If the actual number is higher or lower, then Sterling could move accordingly. Later in the day, the latest UK consumer confidence figures could also affect the Pound. The USA released Home Sales and Jobless numbers, and Australia has a speech by the RBA that could affect GBP/AUD rates.

Friday 27th May 2016 - All data of note today is from the United States. GDP figures, Consumption and a Speech by the FED chair Janet Yellen could all move GBP/USD rates.

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