Thursday, 23 June 2016

Vote today, but the volatility will come tomorrow...

The day is finally upon us, and today is the EU referendum. Apologies for the lack of posts over the last week, but as I'm sure you appreciate we have been incredibly busy on the trading floor, helping clients secure currency at the best possible exchange rates.

I actually think today could be quite quiet on the currency markets, as investors and those buying currency tread water in the calm before the storm. Most of my clients that want to buy currency have now already done so, with the remainder now waiting to see what happens. The main volatility in exchange rates will come tomorrow morning, once the result is known and exchange rates react accordingly. 

Since last Thursday Sterling has risen by around 3% against other currencies as the polls have swung towards the 'Remain' Camp. Here is how GBP/EUR and GBP/USD have moved over the course of the last week:



What could happen to exchange rates?


I've been asked this question hundreds of times in the last week, and ultimately there is no way I or anybody else would know what exchange rates will look like tomorrow morning. The result should be known by around 4am/5am tomorrow. Either we'll vote to remain, in which case my personal view is that Sterling would strengthen by around 3% to 5%. If we vote to leave, then I would expect the Pound to fall by 10% to 15%. Either way, this time tomorrow exchange rates will likely be quite different to now.

Want the best exchange rates?


We source exchange rates very close to the 'mid-market' rates, and you can see live graphs here. Our rates can be up to 5% better than banks or other brokers offer. There is still time to fix a rate today should you wish to do so before tomorrow. Click here to send me an enquiry, and I can talk you through the mechanics of how our service works.

Extended trading hours


The result should be announced by 7am Friday morning. I will be available on the trading floor from 6.30am until late, so if you want to see what rates we can offer you and find out how much you could save, click here to send me an enquiry. 

Whatever your views and whichever way you choose to vote, good luck, and I'll endeavour to post an update at some point tomorrow with an overview of what effect the result has had on the currency markets.