Monday, 27 February 2017

GBP/EUR falls back to €1.17: what could move rates this week?

GBP/EUR rates rose to €1.19 last week, but as is often the case the spike was short lived.

This morning, rates have retreated back to around €1.17, wiping out all of the gains we had seen and bringing exchange rates to buy Euros back to where it was a month ago.

The current levels are still pretty good though all things considered. In January we had seen the pair drop to €1.13, and given that in a few weeks time Article 50 will be triggered, there is every chance that the Pound will fall further in value.

It is really only weakness in the Euro that's keeping rates at the current levels, with fears of political upsets in upcoming Dutch and French elections keeping the single currency subdued. If it were not for these events then rate would likely be much lower.

If you need to buy Euros then get in touch today to find out more about the exchange rates and service we offer. Our exchange rates are extremely competitive and we also offer various contract types to help take advantage of short lived spikes in the market that we witnessed last week. For example, you can place a 'Limit Order' to automatically fix a rate if it reaches a particular level. Or, you could lock in the current rate for up to 2 years using a 'Forward Contract'. This allows you to budget and protects you against the rate getting worse .

To find out how we can help with your currency needs or just to get a quick quote, click here.

What could move exchange rates this week?


Below are the main economic data releases that will have an impact on Sterling exchange rates. Of course politics will also have a huge impact, so also watch out for any opinion polls from Holland and France, news about Brexit and article 50, and Donal Trumps twitter rantings.

Monday 27th February - We have already had a raft of decent data from Europe this morning, giving the Euro a boost and pulling GBP/EUR down to around €1.17. This afternoon, Homes sales data from the USA could pull GBP/USD lower if the numbers are decent. Late this evening New Zealand releases it's trade balance data that could impact GBP/NZD rates.

Tuesday 28th February - There's nothing of note from the UK or EU today, but over in the USA we have GDP figures, Inflation and confidence data, all of which may well move GBP/USD rates.

Wednesday 1st March - A new month and a busy start. UK Mortgage Approvals and Manufacturing data will shed more light on how the UK economy is performing, and if the numbers are good then the Pound may rise. Germany, the EU's largest economy releases Unemployment data and inflation numbers. If these are good then GBP/EUR rates may fall as the Euro rises in value. The USA has a raft of inflation numbers and speeches by FED members, and if these increase the chance of an interest rate hike from the USA in March, GBP/USD rates will probably move lower. Canada announces interest rates today, but I think they will remain unchanged at 0.5%.

Thursday 2nd March - GBP/EUR today will be driven by Unemployment and inflation numbers from the EU, which are released at 10am. The USA releases jobless claims at 13:30pm, and Canada has some important GDP figures also released at 13:30pm that might affect GBP/CAD rates.

Friday 3rd March - We end the week with a raft of US data from across the pond including Services, Manufacturing, and a speech by the FED chair Janet Yellen.

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