A raft of economic data was released earlier this morning, and it has weakened the Pound, ending the decent run of strength for Sterling over the course of the last week. The numbers were all worse than expected, showing that perhaps cracks are starting to appear in the economy.
Manufacturing and Industrial production figures showed a contraction when they were expected to show growth. Trade balance numbers were worse than the last reading, and House prices didn't grow as fast as predicted. Not a particularly good snapshot of the economy! There is a GDP estimate due to be released at 1pm though, and I think this will be a decent reading so the Pound might recover it's losses this afternoon. The last reading showed growth at 0.6%.
Sterling has fallen by about half a cent against the Euro and US Dollar, as a result of the figures but is still holding up relatively well. At the time of writing GBP/EUR is currently at 1.1680 and only a month ago it was in the €1.13's so it's still better than it has been.
Will Pound go up against Euro?
Many client are asking whether the Pound will continue to go up against the Euro. There’s no way to predict these things of course, but if you need to buy Euros in the next 7 months, for a property purchase in the Eurozone for example, it’s worth considering hedging a portion of your requirement. The reason is that the French elections are at the end of this month, and if Marine Le Pen doesn’t win, the Euro will probably strengthen a little and push GBP/EUR lower as it becomes more expensive to purchase. Also when Brexit negotiations start, pressure may return to Sterling. The Pound has been given a little breathing space since Article 50 was triggered as nothing will really start to happen for several weeks, but I don't expect the gains we've seen to be sustained for long.
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