Friday, 7 July 2017

Poor UK data pushes GBP/EUR to €1.13

We've finally seen some movement in Pound/Euro rates following a period of the pair being stuck at the €1.14 level. In the last 24 hours we have seen the pair drop around 1 cent to the low €1.13's:


Why has the Pound/Euro rate fallen?


It's combination of two factors. Yesterday there were yet more noises from the European Central Bank hinting that they would be ending their stimulus programme soon. Economic data coming from Europe has been pretty good of later, helping to strengthen the Euro and that has made it a little more expensive. This news pulled GBP/EUR down to around €1.1350 yesterday.

This morning, we had some UK data and the figures were not good. Industrial and Manufacturing production data released at 09:30am this morning came in below forecast. Trade Balance figures were also worse than expected, and investors sold the Pound on the news, weakening Sterling and pulling the Pound lower against the Euro and other major currencies.

What could move Sterling exchange rates next?


Later today we have a speech by the Bank of England governor Mark Carney that could move the Pound further. A UK GDP estimate at 13:00pm may also affect the Pound's value. We also have US Non-Farm Payroll numbers at 13:30pm and these are predicted to show 179,000 new jobs. It's notoriously difficult to predict however and we often see the actual figure differ significantly. A higher number would send GBP/USD lower and GBP/EUR higher. If the number comes in below, then expect GBP/USD to rise, and Pound/Euro rates to fall even further.

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