Monday, 10 July 2017

What could move Sterling exchange rates this week?

As I mentioned in my last post on Friday, poor UK data at the end of last week weakened the Pound and pulled the GBP/EUR rate to €1.13, where it remains today. It has hit support at that level, and with a lack of any data from the UK today it hasn't moved much since the end of last week.

In today's post I'll look ahead to the coming week and list the economic data releases that I think will affect Sterling.

This week's data releases


Below are the scheduled releases for the coming working week. Other things of course could move Sterling exchange rates such as any political developments or news on how the Brexit negotiations are going.

Monday 10th July 2017 - it's been a quiet start to the week with only some minor trade balance data from Germany. This was better than expected, strengthening the Euro and keeping GBP/EUR in check at €1.13. Later this afternoon we have Consumer credit data from America that could affect GBP/USD. Just before midnight we see New Zealand's card retail sales, which are a good barometer of economic growth and so could move the GBP/NZD rate.

Tuesday 11th July 2017 - There are no UK data releases of note, however 2 of the Bank of England's MPC members will be giving a speech, and if they give any hints of an interest rate rise later in the year, the Pound may gain. Elsewhere we have Canadian Housing data that could move GBP/CAD, and speeches by US central bankers that could move GBP/USD.

Wednesday 12th July 2017 - The most important day for the Pound as we will see that latest Employment and UK jobless claims numbers at 09:30am. Unemployment is forecast to remain at 4.6%, and if the actual figure differs then Sterling will be affected. The UK releases it's latest Industrial production figure at 11am. GBP/CAD could be affected today due to the 3pm decision on interest rates, however it's likely the BoC will leave rates at 0.5%.

Thursday 13th July 2017 - Markets will be reacting to last nights UK House Price numbers, and the only other UK releases is a credit conditions report by the Bank of England, but I don't expect this to have much of an impact on the Pound. Most data today is from the USA including: Inflation, Jobless Claims and speeches by FED members.

Friday 14th July 2017 - GBP/EUR could move today on the latest EU Trade Balance numbers due at 11am. There are no UK releases of note. It's a busy day in the states again, with Retail Sales, Inflation numbers, Industrial Production and FED speeches all likely to be watched by investors and affect GBP/USD accordingly.

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