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Showing posts from November, 2017

Sterling hits a 13 month high against the Australian Dollar

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Sterling exchange rates have rallied overnight to reach a 13 month high against the Australian Dollar (AUD). The move has been even more significant against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) with the pound now sitting at its highest level since August 2016.

Sterling has now gained over 5% against both these currencies in a relatively short window creating some strong buying opportunities.

These gains have come following yesterdays announcement that the UK divorce settlement for Brexit could be as much as £50bn, considerably higher than figures of £18bn discussed earlier this year.

Although the Prime Minister Theresa May downplayed these figures it was a much needed shot in the arm for the pound which also reached a two month against the US dollar.

Should you need to make an international money exchange and you would like to take advantage of the recent spike for the pound then please get in touch. As a specialist foreign exchange broker we have multiple contracts available to help clients …

Pound rises1.5% against Euro, but will the gains last?

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Following on from my post yesterday evening, the Pound has risen further against both the Euro and US Dollar, to €1.13 and $1.34 respectively.

As I mentioned in my post last night, the gains are due to reports that the UK will pay a 'divorce' bill to the EU of €50bn.

It could be argued that with the UK blinking yet again without the EU making any concessions, it does not bode well for future negotiations. However in terms of market reaction, the Pound has gained as it is now more likely that trade negotiations will begin in December.

For those that need to convert Sterling to Euros or other currencies, then it's worth considering taking advantage of these gains. Only a few months ago the rate was as low as €1.07, and this makes a huge difference when converting a large sum.

Purchasing a €150,000 property in France or Spain today is £7500.00 cheaper than a few months ago due to the gains in the Pound. When you look at the last 8 months you can see the rate has reached these…

Pound moves higher on rumours Brexit bill agreed

Sterling has jumped a cent against the Euro to €1.1230 this evening, and also risen by a cent against the USD to $1.3330. We're hearing reports that the UK and EU have agreed in principle that the UK will pay a divorce bill of €60bn.

This increases the chances of talks moving on to trade, and as such, Sterling has strengthened. This has all happened in the last 20 mins, and current charts to view live rate movements can be seen here.

If you need to convert currency at the best rates and would like a free quote, click here. 

Pound under pressure ahead of EU summit

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Sterling hit an 8 week high against the US Dollar yesterday, but has dropped back a little this morning. The UK's major banks passed the 'stress test' showing that they would be able to cope with a hard Brexit, and this helped support the Pound a little. This morning however, GBPUSD has dropped back to $1.33 and GBPEUR is around the €1.1170 mark.

Will the Pound rise or fall in December?
Markets are starting to get a little wary about the upcoming EU summit due in mid-December. Quite simply, if it's decided that Brexit talks
will move to start discussing a future trade agreement, then I would expect GBP/EUR rates to rise to around the €1.14/€1.15 mark. If however the EU decides that not enough progress has been made with regards to the divorce bill and Irish border, and refuse to move talks forward, then a 'Hard Brexit' scenario becomes more likely. In this scenario, I would expect GBP/EUR rates to drop back to around the €1.08 mark. Either way, the coming wee…

This week's economic data that could affect exchange rates

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Good morning. GBP/EUR starts the week around the €1.12 mark, recovering some of the losses we saw last week due to the strengthening single currency.

Listed below are the main economic data releases that could affect Sterling exchange rates this week - there's lots of releases that could affect major currency pairs such as GBPEUR, GBPUSD and GBPCAD.

If you would like to find out more about what could move rates, discuss our currency services, or just get a quick quote, make a free enquiry today.

What could move exchange rates this week?
Monday 27th November - It's a very quiet start to the week with no releases of note from either the UK or the Eurozone. There are some minor Home Sales and manufacturing numbers from the USA, but nothing much else for the markets to chew on.

Tuesday 28th November - Things get a little more interesting today, with some key UK data. At 7am we have the latest UK Bank stress tests. Any signs of the 8 major banks failing this could weigh on Sterlin…

Sterling reaches a 6 week high against the US dollar

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Sterling has pushed to a near 6 week high against the greenback to trade back above 1.33, a move now of just over 2% in just over a week.

The moves came following Chancellor Philip Hammond's first budget in which a gloomy outlook was given for the UK's future growth forecasts. Following the budget Conservative MP's rallied around Philip Hammond, although the Labour party were quick to condemn the government saying the projections were the weakest in decades.

In his budget, Mr Hammond indicated that forecasts for the UK economy were for an expansion of just 1.4% a year by 2022 citing uncertainty surrounding Brexit as a main reason for falling productivity.

During the budget much of his focus was on the issue of affordable housing and the limited supply of affordable housing. This lead to a reduction in stamp duty for first time buyers purchasing properties up to £300,000.

To help those in London and other expensive areas, the first £300,000 of the cost of a £500,000 purchas…

Pound/Euro hits €1.13 on Brexit optimism and Euro weakness

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Pound/Euro rates have risen today to €1.13, however the pair seems to be hitting resistance at this level. It's politics driving the Sterling/Euro pair, with the Pound managing to make some gains due to the Brexit bill offer made by Theresa may helping to lend some support to the Pound.

The Euro has also weakened slightly due to the collapse of coalition talks in Germany making the Euro a little cheaper to buy.

Will tomorrow's Budget affect the Pound?
The Autumn budget is always something to look out for, but unless there are any surprises, in my experience it doesn't usually affect the value of Sterling all that much. Hammond does have a challenge, but I think that it probably won't have much of an effect.

Of much more importance will be how things develop in Germany, and of course any progress with Brexit negotiations. If there is a new election in Germany then it could weaken the Euro further pushing rates up to €1.14. If Brexit talks move on to trade before the en…

What could impact sterling exchange rates this week?

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On a relatively quiet day for the pound data wise sterling has continued on from last last week posting gains against a number of currencies. We have reached a near three week high against the US dollar and multi year highs against the Australian and New Zealand Dollar.

Today has been quiet in terms of data but I have highlighted what may have an impact on the pound for the rest of the week:

- Tuesday 21/11 - UK Public Sector Net borrowing figures
- Tuesday 21/11 - UK Inflation Report
- Wednesday 22/11 - UK Budget/Autumn Forecast Statement
- Thursday 23/11 - UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) 

As you can see we have a busy week this week, with Wednesdays Budget the key area to focus. This will be Chancellor Philip Hammond's first budget and the first to be held in the autumn in over 20 years.

Should you have an upcoming money transfer to arrange and you would like more information on the full currency service we provide then please get in touch. As one of the UK's largest currenc…

Retail sales give a timely boost to the pound

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Sterling was given a needed boost this morning as retail sales figures were released ahead of forecast. Month on month data, although poor, was ahead of the 0.1% expected and came in at 0.3%. As a result sterling pushed through 1.12 against the euro and 1.32 against the US dollar.
Sterling positivity has not been something we have been accustomed to in recent weeks, and this small shot in the arm for the pound could be an opportunity for anyone selling the pound. 
Interestingly this morning Mark Carney, the Bank of England governor suggested that the UK economy would have performed better if the UK had remained in the EU, something that suggests, to me, that we could be in for further sterling depreciation as Brexit negotiations continue.
Another area to focus on will be next weeks Budget on the 22nd November, the first time in more than 20 years that the budget has been announced in the autumn and not the spring. It is difficult to know the impact this will have on the pound but it …

GBP/AUD reaches a five month high

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Sterling rallied overnight to reach a five month high against the Australian Dollar creating some good buying opportunities.

Sterling had a poor day yesterday against a number of major currencies following weaker than forecast inflation data, however it was too see a significant recovery against the AUD as the dollar weakened following weaker than expected wage figures. Average earnings in Australia only rose 0.5% in September, disappointing investors who had hoped for a figure of 0.7%

This yo yo effect for the GBP/AUD is continuing and again these levels may not hang around for long. In the last 6 weeks we have seen the pound range anywhere between 1.66 and 1.7370 - a difference of 4.5%. Fortunately for buyers we are at the top end of this market, so maybe a time to cash in?

How to get the best deal on my currency?
When looking for the best exchange rate it is important to utilise the service of a specialist foreign exchange broker to maximise your money exchange. Specialists can mak…

Sterling falls following inflation figures

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Sterling exchange rates continued their poor start to the week posting losses against the Euro and the US dollar. We have now seen the pound fall nearly 2 cents against the Euro this week.

Sterling has come under pressure following inflation figures this morning which remained flat at 3% against an expected release of 3.1%.

If levels had risen it may have given more scope for the Bank of England to consider raising interest rates (as it did earlier this month) but with levels falling it means we are likely to see the the central bank remain relatively controlled with their movements from here on in.

Should you need to arrange a money transfer the volatility we are currently experiencing really highlights how important it is to research the market. By looking at market trends and what data is due for release, you can put your self in a much stronger position to try and maximise your money transfer.

The purpose of this site is supply clients with market data but also to help clients wi…

Sterling falls on political uncertainty. What else could impact the pound this week?

Sterling has had a poor open this morning, posting some heavy losses against the Euro (down to 1.1230 at the time of writing) and 1.3070 against the US dollar.

Political uncertainty has again had a major impact on the value for the pound following news of a report in the Sunday Times over the weekend that 40 MP's have signed a letter of no-confidence in Theresa May and her government, just 8 votes short of the number required to trigger a leadership contest.

This continues the run of bad press for Theresa May and also follows on from reports in the Mail on Sunday that Boris Johnson and Michael Gove had written a letter urging Theresa May to pursue a hard Brexit strategy.

Data that could impact the pound this week
This current uncertainty surrounding the UK Government is likely to keep the pound firmly on the back foot but anyone looking at a position involving sterling should also keep an eye on the following data releases:

- Tuesday 14th - UK inflation figures - expected to rise …

Strong UK data fails to lift the Pound

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This morning we had further encouraging signs that the UK economy is robust and resilient to the uncertainties of Brexit, however the news has had little effect on the value of Sterling.

The latest Industrial and Manufacturing production figures doubled the estimates, showing growth of 0.7%. Markets had only been expecting a more modest number of 0.3%. Also, the latest Trade Balance figures were significantly better than expected.

Why hasn't the Pound gone up?
When economic releases are so much better than expected, we would usually expect the Pound to strengthen, however it's remained fairly flat, trading at €1.13 vs the Euro at the time of writing. I think the main reason Sterling hasn't moved is that markets are awaiting news on the latest round of Brexit talks. Today, we will hear Michel Barnier and David Davies give a press conference, and it's unlikely that any significant breakthrough will be announced.

What they say will be very important. Last time Barnier use…

Political uncertainty and Brexit keeping the pound on its toes

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Following yesterdays calls for Theresa May to sack both her International Trade secretary and Foreign Secretary over failings in their conduct, the pound slumped back into the 1.12's against the Euro and the 1.30's against the US dollar.

With the Conservative government already rather fragile this political uncertainty looks to further undermine Theresa May's authority and ability to govern.

Political uncertainty can have a major impact on the value of a currency. The uncertainty surrounding the current government will be making investors wary of the stability within the UK's economy and hence the stability of the pound. For this reason investors tend to move money into other currencies, the resulting sell-off de-values sterling and other currencies become more expensive to buy. A move we are currently experiencing.

With this current political instability, combined with the on-going Brexit negotiations, I fear the pound is likely to remain under pressure in the short t…

What might affect the pound for the rest of the week?

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Sterling yesterday continued its turbulent run pushing as high as 1.1373 but tailed off to finish the day at 1.1325 against the Euro. This morning the pound has dipped further, briefly falling back into the 1.12s but has now settled just above 1.13.
This volatility has now seen GBP/EUR range from a high/low of 1.1450 to 1.1175 in the last week, a difference of 2.5%. This change in rates can be significant when moving a large sum of money. 
To highlight this, the difference between the high/low on a £200k money exchange is over €5,500 - a significant amount of money. For this reason it is very important to have as much information as you can when deciding the best time to arrange your conversion. 
What could impact the pound?
Today is a relatively quiet day from the pounds point of view with little or no data that may impact the pound. Should you have an interest in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) then look out for the RBNZ (Reserve Bank of New Zealand) interest rate meeting and accompan…

Pound/Euro edges higher ahead of some important UK data

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The Euro has weakened over the last 24 hours, helping push Pound/Euro rates back up to almost €1.14, helping this pair recover most of the losses we saw after the Bank of England cut interest rates last week. This move upwards has been largely caused by weakness in the single currency however, rather than any particular strength in the Pound.

The reason for the Euro weakness is worse than expected economic data from the Eurozone. Firstly, Germany which is the EU's powerhouse economy posted worse than expected Industrial production figures earlier this morning. We also saw EU wide Retail Sales numbers a few moments ago that while slightly better than expected, hasn't help the Euro gain. Mario Draghi also made dovish comments earlier this morning, and all of the above has helped to weaken the Euro and push GBP/EUR higher.

Also helping rates was a slight up tick in UK house prices. However most gains today have only been against the Euro for the reasons outlined above. Against o…

GBP/AUD back above 1.71 ahead of the RBA interest rate meeting overnight

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Sterling exchange rates have recovered back above the 1.71 level ahead of tomorrow's interest rate meeting announced by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).
It is widely expected that the RBA will keep the base rate on hold at 1.5% something that is unlikely to have much impact on the exchange rate. 
What could impact the rate however will be the accompanying statement. In this statement it will indicate the reasons as to why the RBA have acted as they have but will also give clues as to what future monetary policy the central bank may have in store.
If the statement is relatively dovish (dove refers to an economic policy that promotes monetary policies that involve low interest rates) then I would look for the Australian Dollar to weaken further causing the current volatility between GBP/AUD to continue. To highlight this volatility the GBP/AUD rate has now moved just shy of 3% between its high and low value in less than a week.
With such a volatile market it has never been more…

What could move exchange rates this week?

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The Pound has started the week well, rising by half a cent vs the Euro to €1.13, and above $1.31 against the US Dollar, recovering some of the losses from last week.

Below are the main data releases for the week ahead that could move exchange rates:

Monday 6th November - There's nothing of note from the UK today, so GBP/EUR will be driven by events from the Eurozone. Confidence data and inflation numbers are the main release that could affect the Euro. Other than that the only data of note is a speech by a US Federal Reserve member that could affect GBP/USD rates.

Tuesday 7th November - Australia announces its decision on interest rates today, and while rates are expected to remain at 1.5%, softer Aussie data of late could lead them to hint at a rate cut, which would weaken the AUD and push GBP/AUD rates up. From the UK, we have the latest House Price data, and a GDP estimate from the NIESR. Eurozone Retail Sales could also affect GBP/EUR. For those looking at GBP/CAD rates, a speec…

Pound tumbles after BoE rate hike

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Well there we have it, the Bank of England have, as expected, raised interest rates to 0.5%. This was widely expected and what we are seeing today is a classic case of 'Buy the rumour, sell the fact'.

We have been stating on this blog all week that if they did raise rates and not all members voted for a hike, then it was likely the Pound would fall. Only 7 of the 9 members voted for the hike, and the result is the Pound now trading lower across the board. This is because the hike had been largely priced in to the vale of the Pound already, and the fact that we probably won't see another hike until 2019 has weakened Sterling significantly. Today's hike is not a surprise, and it would have needed a bigger hike or all 9 members of the MPC to vote for a hike to push the Pound higher.

As I stated recently, the levels of GBP/EUR at €1.14 had been reached several times in the last few months but subsequently dropped away, and this is a trend we have seen repeated again.

As you…

Pound stable before key interest rate meeting

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Sterling exchange rates are remaining steady this morning ahead of what could be a very busy afternoon for the pound.

This afternoon will see the latest Bank of England (BofE) interest rate meeting, something that of late has caused relatively little market movement.

However today's meeting is being scrutinised and viewed rather more closely than previous months as it is expected that the BofE will raise interest rates for the first time in over 10 years.

What could be the outcome for the Pound?
It is widely expected that the central bank will raise rates, and indeed the pound has been spiking in recent days on these rumours, so many would argue a rate hike has already been heavily priced in. I would argue this is the case, however I think the market will focus on how the 9 members of Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) that actually make the decision, voted.

Analysts expect a 6-3 split in favour of a rate hike, and should this be the case I would actually expect little movement for s…