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Showing posts from December, 2017

Sterling falls as political uncertainty returns

Sterling has edged lower against the Euro overnight, as uncertainty returned to UK politics following the sacking of Cabinet minister Damien Green. Also pushing the Pound lower was a report by the IMF that downgraded UK growth forecasts, stating that Brexit uncertainty was causing firms to delay investment plans.

The IMF said that "Sterling has depreciated, inflation has gone up, wages have been squeezed as a result, and investments have been slowed down and are certainly lower than where we would expect them to be."

Pound/Euro has fallen to around €1.1255, and with a long road ahead in terms of UK/EU trade negotiations, in my view significant downside risks remain for the Pound. 

What could move exchange rates today?
UK Consumer confidence figures have already been released and the number was slightly lower than forecasts. At 09:30am we'll see the latest Public Sector net borrowing figures; analysts expect the deficit to have widened, and Sterling may fall if that's…

Pound/Euro drops 1 cent, Pound/Rand drops 10%!

Pound/Euro
Sterling fell to just below €1.13 yesterday, and the cause was, as you would probably expect, Brexit. Theresa May and her cabinet discussed Brexit and decided that they want a transition period with the same access to EU markets as currently. However, the EU Chief Negotiator Michel Barnier poured cold water on the chance of Financial Services being part of trade talks. As Financial services make up a large portion of the services sector, which in itself forms more than 75% of the UK's GDP, the news was taken as Sterling negative, and the Pound dropped away.

This morning worse than expected German inflation numbers weakened the Euros slightly helping to support the GBP/EUR pair at around 1.13. Later today, the BoE governor Mark Carney will be giving a speech, and regular readers will know that his comments often affect the Pound, usually negatively.

GBP/ZAR
Elsewhere, the Pound/South African Rand pair has had a very volatile few days, due to the elections in South Africa…

When will Pound/Euro rates go up?

As you can see from the live graphs and charts, over the last 3 months the Pound/Euro rate has fluctuated between €1.11 and €1.14. The pair briefly hit €1.15 a few weeks ago after the announcement that Brexit talks had moved on to the next stage, but the rally was short lived, and GBP/EUR has now fallen back into it's familiar pattern of settling just below the €1.14 mark.

Most of our clients are those purchasing property overseas in France and Spain, and therefore need to convert their Sterling to Euros, and a common question at the moment is when will the Pound/Euro rate go back up.

What causes the GBP/EUR rate to move?
Usually exchange rates move around on economic data, with positive news strengthening a currency and vice versa. UK  economic
data has been quite strong all year, with GDP growing, unemployment at record lows, and interest rates slowly starting to rise. However, for the last year, markets have largely disregarded this data, with politics instead being the main …

What might impact your currency in the run up to Christmas?

As we head into the final week before Christmas I have outlined below the major data releases to watch out for before the markets slow down for the Christmas break:

- Tuesday 19th - Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) minutes. The latest minutes from the RBA will show how the central bank voted and give clues as to what future monetary policy the RBA may have in store.
- Wednesday 20th - Bank of England Governor mark Carney is due to speak at 13:15. Nothing is expected to come from his speech but it is always one to keep an eye on.
- Thursday 21st - Gfk Cosumer confidence and Public Sector Net Borrowing figures
- Thursday 21st - US initial jobless claims data and US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) annualised figures.
- Thursday 21st - Canadian Retail Sales figures
- Friday 22nd - UK GDP Q3 figures
As you can see this week could still see plenty of movement on the currency market before things settle over the Christmas break. Should you need to get any transfers arranged and you would like a…

Currency update - GBP, EUR, USD, AUD, CAD, NZD

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Below is a brief outline regarding how some of the major currency pairs have been performing. GBP/EUR in particular is back above €1.14 today folowing some weakness in the Euro.

If you would like a quote on the rates we can offer, please make a free enquiry.

Pound Sterling – Brexit has remained one of the driving forces of GBP exchange rate movement over the last couple of weeks, with concerns that the UK would fail to reach an exit deal with the EU in time for the summit on 14th December piling pressure on the Pound. Although the UK and EU did eventually make a deal, concerns that discussions on trade and a transitional deal will be delayed until February next year left Sterling struggling. The EU summit could inspire considerable Pound movement on Thursday. If the tone adopted about the progress and path of Brexit negotiations is positive, the Pound could climb. This week GBP exchange rates will also be fluctuating in response to the UK’s inflation, employment and retail sales…

GBP/EUR reaches a 6 month high to then fall away heavily in the afternoon session

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Those of you that were in a position to act swiftly managed to catch sterling at its highest level against the single currency in nearly 6 months this morning. For the first time since June the pound pushed over 1.15 but these levels were not to last. In fact by the close the pound had fallen by over 1% to reach 1.1360.

Initial signs were  good this morning following news that Theresa May had struck a last minute deal with the EU in a bid to move Brexit talks onto the next phase. There will be no "hard border" with Ireland, and the rights of the EU citizens in the UK and UK citizens in the EU will be protected. Its so called "divorce bill" will amount to between £35 and £39bn - less than the £50bn as speculated a week or so back but still enough to push the pound through 1.15.

As mentioned, however, these gains did not last and anyone hoping for a push towards 1.16 will have been mightily disappointed. For me this see-saw effect is a trend that will continue and for…

Australian Dollar rallies overnight

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The Australian Dollar gained more than two cents against the pound following the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) latest interest rate meeting.

As expected the central bank decided to keep the base rate on hold , but a far more optimistic outlook from the policymakers regarding wage growth, helped push the Australian Dollar significantly higher during the Asian session.

We are still seeing some strong buying levels for those looking to secure AUD, particularly the GBP/AUD pairing. Prior to the RBA meeting the pound was at its strongest level in over a year topping 1.78 - we are now back in the 1.75's again highlighting how volatile the pairing is currently.

Should you have an upcoming international money transfer to arrange and you would like more information on the full range of currency services we provide then please get in touch. As specialist foreign exchange brokers we have access to commercial banking levels enabling us to significantly undercut the high street banks.

Brexit talks cause volatility for the Pound.

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It's been an interesting Monday for the Pound, with exchange rates proving to be very volatile due to Brexit talks and rumours of a deal. This morning, there was talk that a deal was going to be announced, and Sterling/Euro shot up to €1.1420 as a result.

Then this afternoon, news broke that actually a deal would not be announced today, and down the Pound went. It's stabilised a little now, with GBP/EUR currently at around €1.1350.

Click here to see live currency charts

Sterling is incredibly susceptible to any rumours and news about Brexit at the moment. Anything that hints or suggests that trade talks will start soon is sending the Pound higher against other currencies. Any news that casts any doubt on the progress of the talks will send the Pound lower again. As you can see from the GBP/EUR chart below, this is creating quite a choppy market for the Pound:


With a key EU summit coming up later this morning, I think that the Pound will remain very volatile in the short term. A…