Showing posts from January, 2018

Leaked Government Brexit analysis stops sterling in its tracks

Yesterdays leaked  Government document surrounding Brexit suggested that in every scenario the UK will be in a worse off position. In the document released on website Buzzfeed, it suggested the UK growth could be as much as 8% worse off depending on what is agreed with our European counterparts.

This release has firmly halted sterling in its tracks and once again the elusive 1.15 seems to be a hurdle too far for the pound to consistently surpass. This is now the 6th occasion in the last 6 months the pound has reached 1.15 and once again a quick sharp correction has been seen.

Other significant moves have been seen against other majors such as the US dollar. At its peak last week GBP/USD traded at 1.4325 and this morning, albeit very briefly, it fell below 1.40, a fall of 2.3% in just over three trading days. Again highlighting how volatile this current market is.

For anyone looking at EUR or USD positions, particularly those buying euros and dollars, don't be too disheartened. In …

The week ahead for Sterling exchange rates

True to recent form, the Pound fell towards the end of last week, dropping from an 18 month high against the USD and from a 7 month high against the Euro. Given the strong run Sterling has had recently, it's not surprising to see it's rally run out of steam. Currently Pound/Dollar is still quite good at $1.41. Pound/Euro has dropped into the mid €1.13's. (view live graphs here).

Many clients that got in touch with us last week managed to freeze their rate at the high, with some opting to do so with a 'Forward Contract'. This allows you to lock in the current rate for up to 2 years, thus protecting you from rates dropping and allowing you to budget effectively. This is key when you need to transfer a large sum, for a property purchase for example. If you would like to get a free quote or just find out more about the currency services we offer, then make an enquiry today or send me an email.

What could move exchange rates this week?
As usual for a Monday, in today…

Sterling posts losses to end the trading week

Sterling has ended the week on negative note following some multi year highs experienced earlier in the week. In fact some of the ground sterling has made has been pretty significant having rallied, at one point, over 4.5% against the US dollar in just over a week to reach a post Brexit high of 1.4325. 

A strong run had also been seen against the euro with sterling pushing to a near 6 month high on Wednesday. As with the GBP/USD this rally was not to last and sterling has tailed off to finish the working week. With on-going Brexit negotiations likely to keep the pound in check, particularly against the Euro one could argue these current levels may not last for long. Interestingly the pound has breached 1.14 five times in the last six months and on every occasion has fallen sharply. Should this trend continue then these current levels may not last for long.
If you have a future international money transfer to arrange and you would like to get more information relating to the full range…

Pound falls from recent multi-month highs

This week Pound/Euro rates broke through €1.15 to hit the highest levels since June last year. Pound/Dollar broke through $1.43 earlier which is the highest since the EU referendum. This afternoon rates have slipped back slightly. Let's look at why rates rose, what has caused the drop, and the forecast for where GBP/EUR could go in 2018.

Pound/Euro hits highs of €1.15
Earlier this week I outlined the UK employment data as a key event that could move rates higher. As predicted we saw wage growth come in slightly above forecast, and this was the main catalyst that sent Sterling higher to multi-month highs against the Euro and USD. Average wages came in at +2.4% which was more than the markets had been expected. As I explained in my recent post, a higher number increases the likelihood of an interest rate rise and would probably cause the rate to rise, which it duly did.

The rise in Pound/Euro was halted in it's tracks however at lunchtime today following the European Central ban…

Sterling rallies through 1.41

This morning sterling has rallied to a fresh post Brexit high of 1.4120. It has come back a little to settle in the high 1.40s but still a significant move. We have now seen the pound rally nearly 4.5% in just over a week, this makes a huge difference when transferring a significant sum of money.

To highlight this on a £300k money exchange over the last 10 days would have secured anywhere from $404k to $423k - a huge difference of $19k. This shows how important it can be to make sure you are kept up to date with market trends to try and maximise your exchange and limit your exposure to adverse market movement. As the pound has now rallied against the dollar for the best part of 10 days I would urge caution for any USD buyers as I do feel we could easily see a short term correction.

It is not just against the dollar that he pound has seen some success as we are also close to a two month high against the Euro creating some great opportunities for Euro buyers. Should you need to make an …

How could UK Employment figures tomorrow affect Sterling?

Pound/Euro rates remain firm at around €1.14 level, and Pound/Dollar rates were above $1.40 earlier, the highest since the referendum, but have slipped back ever so slightly this afternoon into the $1.39's. Decent growth forecasts for the UK on Monday from the IMF have helped the Pound, along with a general increase in optimism about how the UK economy is performing.

Tomorrow will be quite important for Sterling, and some key data due to be released at 09:30am could send the Pound higher still should it beat forecasts. Of course a poor reading could mean Sterling dropping back away from it's multi-month highs against many currencies.

How could UK Employment figures affect the Pound?
At 09:30am we will see the latest UK employment picture including the unemployment rate, which is expected to be 4.3%, the lowest since the 1970's. Of more importance will be the latest wage-growth data. This is expected to show that pay has risen on average by 2.3%. If the reading matches or …

UK Wage Growth, and other data that could move exchange rates this week

Good morning. Our 2 most commonly traded pairs (GBP/EUR and GBP/USD) are still riding high. Pound/Euro is sat at €1.1350 which is close to a 6 week high. Pound/Dollar is at $1.39 which is the best we've seen Dollar rates since the EU referendum.

This week there are some key events that could move major currencies such as Sterling or the Euro. Below I've outlined the main events for the coming week. If you would like a free consultation on the currency you need to buy, and get a quote on the rate we can offer, send an enquiry or drop me an email.

This week's economic data releases 
Monday 22nd January 2018 - There are no major releases from the UK or EU today, so unless there's any Brexit announcements then it's likely rates will remain above €1.13. Pound/Dollar could be affected however due to the US government shutdown.

Tuesday 23rd January 2018 - There are no major releases from the UK today, however in Europe we'll see German and EU measures of Economic Senti…

Poor retail sales for December halts the pounds charge

Following this mornings poor UK retail sales data sterling has taken a slight tumble against most of its major counterparts. In particular the loss has been felt the hardest against the US dollar with the pound falling from a high of 1.3943 back into the 1.38s and bringing a halt to  a near 8 day rally for the pound.

However should you need to buy US dollars don't be too disheartened as we are still trading at comfortably the highest level against the greenback post Brexit. In fact the move over the last week has been significant with sterling posting gains in excess of 3.3% since the 11th January - on a transfer of £200k into USD this is a difference of over $9k between the high and low during this time.

With market volatility like this it is important to make sure you are getting as much information relating to the currency markets. By working with a broker you will have access to key market information and market knowledge. As one of the UK's largest foreign exchange broker…

Pound rises against Euro, CAD and US Dollar

Sterling has risen against many major currencies over the last few days, largely due to comments from central banks. Let's have a look at some of the most popular currency pairs that we trade.

Pound/Euro breaks €1.13
We have seen GBP/EUR rates finally break through the €1.13 level. There are 2 main reasons for this. Firstly, we had a speech by one of the members of the Bank of England yesterday, which markets have taken as a sign that further interest rate hikes are on the cards for the UK over the next 18 months. The chance of higher rates strengthened the Pound slightly. Also, comments from the European Central Bank yesterday caused the Euro to weaken. Slightly weaker EU inflation numbers mean that the Euro weakened a little, helping push the pair above €1.13. The current levels are the best in about a month. If you look at the live graphs of how Pound/Euro has performed over the last 3 months you can see that we have seen these levels a few times, but each time it drops back to…


GBP/CAD - Rates are currently close to the best they have been in 6 months, however this could change later today. At 3pm the Bank of Canada will announce its latest interest rate decision, and there is a good chance they will raise rates to 1.25%. If so then the CAD could strengthen and pull GBP/CAD rates lower.

GBP/EUR - This pair remains very flat, having hardly moved following yesterday's UK inflation numbers that came in roughly as expected. It has risen a little today back towards the €1.13  mark after the Euro weakened slightly. This was due to the fact the EU are unlikely to raise interest rates until 2019. There is a speech a Bank of England policy maker at lunchtime, but other that that there's not much else being released this week from the UK until Friday when we see the latest Retail Sales. So, unless there's any news on Brexit negotiations, I would expect this pair to remain flat.

GBP/USD - Pound/Dollar is still riding high at around the $1.38 mark. There are …

UK Inflation at 3% - what can we expect for the pound?

This mornings UK inflation figures, released at 09:30, came out at the 3% level analysts were expecting. As a result sterling has actually fallen a fraction on this mornings trading as a fall in inflation eases the pressure slightly on the Bank of England.

What is likely to impact sterling?

Inflation is an area that the Bank of England will be keeping a close eye on and a fall from last months levels of 3.1% will be a slight relief for the central bank, although the Bank of England Governor Mark Carney will still need to write a letter to the Chancellor Phillip Hammond explaining why inflation is 1% ahead of the Banks target level.

The main focus for anyone buying or selling sterling still needs to be the impact of the next round of Brexit negotiations. GBP/EUR in its current range is actually doing very little, suggesting the market is playing a waiting game. If you look at the recent moves for EUR/USD historically a significant drive in favour of the Euro for this pairing would also …

Pound/Euro, Pound/Dollar and this week's economic data

Good morning. Today we'll take a quick look at the major currency pairs Pound/Euro and Pound/Dollar, before taking a look ahead and what could happen to exchange rates this week.

Sterling/Euro (GBPEUR)
This currency pair seems to be unable to break out of the range that it has been trading in for quite some time, fluctuating between €1.12 and €1.13. Last week it hit the upper end of this range, before and upbeat report from the European Central Bank strengthened the Euro, pulling the rate lower again. Despite the UK economy performing very well of late, the spectre of Brexit continues to loom over Sterling, and this is keeping the Pound from making any gains.

Read below for further information on what economic data is coming up this week that could move the pair.

Sterling/US Dollar (GBPUSD)
Pound/Dollar is currently the highest it has been since the EU referendum. Euro/Dollar is at a 3 year high. The reason for this is partly due to USD weakness. Despite the fact the US economy …

GBP/USD at its highest level post Brexit

Sterling has today reached its highest level against the US dollar since the Brexit vote to reach just shy of 1.37. A big surge for EUR/USD has also been seen with the Euro at its highest level in nearly 3 years.

The pounds rally came following reports that the Spanish and Dutch finance ministers had agreed to seek a Brexit deal that would keep the UK as close to the EU as possible. Today's moves now mean the pound is trading at nearly 2% higher than yesterday morning - possibly a good time to buy for anyone looking at US dollars?

Should you need US dollars or you have a foreign exchange exposure and you would like more information relating to our currency services then please make an enquiry by clicking here

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GBP/EUR rates drop to €1.12 as Euro gains strength

Good morning. We've seen some volatility for both Pound/Euro and Pound/Dollar rates over the last 24 hours. The movements are due to events in the EU and USA however rather than any new data from the UK. Let's take a more detailed look at what has happened to each currency pair.

Pound/Euro drops to €1.12
GBP/EUR rates have been stuck in a range between €1.12 and €1.13 over the last month or so. Yesterday it was at the higher end of this range and there was speculation that it could push through the €1.13 mark. However, the latest European Central Bank (ECB) minutes proved rather bullish, and this as strengthened the single currency, making it more expensive to purchase and pulling the exchange rate lower.

The ECB minutes hinted that they could soon look to start winding up it's massive monetary stimulus programme. On the back of this the Euro has risen to it's highest in 3 years. The winding up of their stimulus programme is likely to happen if the EU economy continue…

When will the Pound go back up against the Euro?

Pound subdued despite strong economy
Yesterday was a mixed day for Sterling. We had the latest Industrial and Manufacturing numbers, which beat forecasts showing 0.4% growth, showing the these sectors are still robust. Manufacturing output is at it's highest in over 10 years! A UK GDP estimate also came in above forecast at 0.6%, showing that the UK economy is actually in very good health, despite warnings that the vote to leave the EU would cause a recession and nearly a million job losses. The reality is unemployment levels are now at their lowest since the 1970's.

The strong economic numbers from the UK didn't however cause any gains for the Pound, with GBP/EUR rate still stuck in it's range at around the €1.13 level. The reason that Sterling didn't strengthen was the fact that Trade balance numbers were lower than markets had been expecting.

Despite the fact that UK economic figures continue to show the economy is doing very well, the Pound is unable to make …

Sterling Forecast - what can we expect for the pound?

Sterling has started the New Year positively having reached a near 5 week high against the Euro and close to an 18 month high against the US dollar. Sterling did take a slight hit yesterday following the re-shuffle of Prime Minister Theresa May's cabinet.

For me I still believe the pound is in a very fragile position, this has been highlighted by the fact that this morning we have seen UK manufacturing data released at its highest level in nearly 10 years, recording its seventh consecutive month of growth in November and yet sterling has fallen in value this morning.

I believe yesterdays re-shuffle has shown some major cracks in Theresa May's Government with many questioning her authority and it is this uncertainty that could keep people away from the pound.

This uncertainty combined with on-going questions surrounding Brexit, is likely to keep the pound on the back foot. The next phase of Brexit is key and is set to be concluded by October 2018. In this next phase negotiation…

Pound rises after Cabinet re-shuffle

Pound/Euro rises to €1.1350
The Pound/Euro rate has risen to €1.1350 over the last 24 hours, strengthening on optimism that Brexit talks will make progress this year. There were some concerns that the government re-shuffle might weaken the Pound, but actually not too much has changed, and continuity is usually a good thing for a currency, so the lack of any significant changes in key positions has helped support the Pound.

Meanwhile, the Euro has weakened slightly despite EU economic data continuing to impress. Despite this, markets are not particularly favouring the single currency at the moment, due to the fact their stimulus measures are likely to remain in place for some time.

UK data tomorrow to provide direction for Sterling
Looking forward, there isn't much on the agenda today to cause much movement in the GBP/EUR pair, so I would expect it to remain comfortable above the €1.13 mark. Tomorrow however there are some key releases that could favour the Pound further. At 09:3…

Pound/Euro, Pound/Dollar, and what week ahead has in store for Sterling

Good morning. Pound/Euro rates remain largely flat, with the pair stuck between €1.12 and €1.13 as it has been for some time. Whilst economic data from the UK continues to be quite good, it's not doing much to strengthen the Pound. With markets waiting for more developments with regards to the direction Brexit talks will take, it's keeping the Pound in check and this means GBP/EUR rates haven't moved an awful lot over the last month. I think that rate will go up later this year once progress has been made with trade talks, but while the uncertainty over what a trade deal will look like remains, I can't see where any gains are going to come from in the short to medium term.

Pound/Dollar rates had risen last week, briefly hitting $1.36 which is the highest we've seen Pound/Dollar rate since the EU referendum weakened the Pound. Rates have started to drop back a little now however, and this is because it's likely that the USA will raise interest rates again severa…

GBP/USD close to an 18 month high

Despite yesterday's slight blip the pound is now trading at close to the highest levels against the USD since July 2016 having experienced an upturn of over 2% for the pound since just before the Christmas break, the question for many is will this trend continue?

With news of further unrest in the Trump administration following news of the imminent release of an explosive book from Donald Trump's former close aide Steve Bannon, then I would expect the potential for further US dollar weakness in the coming days. Rumours are circulating that lawyers for the US President are seeking to stop the release of the book, which apparently contains explosive insights into his presidency.

News such as this may not sit well for dollar investors and could see a number of dollar positions unwound. Combined with this we have seen some relatively poor jobs data of late, starting with today's worse than forecast initial jobless claims figures. These are the precursor to tomorrows key jobs f…

The week ahead for exchange rates

Good morning and a very Happy New Year to our readers. We start 2018 with GBP/EUR at 1.1250 and GBP/USD at $1.3550. With markets now fully open, today we'll take a look at what economic data is being released this week that could affect the currency markets. If you have a transfer to make and would like to compare our rates, get in touch today for a free quote.

This week's economic data releases. 
Tuesday 2nd January 2018 - Today is all about Manufacturing PMI numbers, with releases from Germany, the EU, UK, Canada and USA. The European numbers came in as forecast so had little effect on rates. The UK Number has just been releases and was slightly lower than expected, weakened the Pound a little. The US and Canadian releases come this afternoon and could move GBPCAD and GBPUSD if the results differ to the expected.

Wednesday 3rd January 2018 - Today GBP/EUR may move on the back of German job numbers, and UK construction data that is due at 09:30am. Construction is expected to …